If mercantile opinions are at all to be relied upon, these extra supplies ought to have a tendency to bring down prices, which the prospect of war has enhanced beyond what existing circumstances seem to warrant, even presuming that we had no other dependence than upon Russia for the articles with which she has heretofore supplied us. For example, we have paid during the past year, if we take present prices, for our imports of wheat alone from Russia, about £6,470,000 sterling, whereas, at the prices of the early part of 1852, we should have paid for the same quantity of wheat just half the money. And at the present moment, and since war has been regarded as inevitable, we have had a downward tendency in all our principal markets. It has been discovered that we hold more home-grown wheat than was anticipated; and, with a favourable seed-time and a propitious spring, hopes are entertained that we shall not in the present year be so dependent upon the foreigner as we have been during that which has passed. Tallow also is an article for which we have been lately paying the extravagant prices of 62s. to 63s. per cwt. In the early part of 1852, the article was worth about 37s. 6d. for the St Petersburg quality. No English grazier, however, ever knew butcher’s meat or fat at their present prices; and a propitious year for the agriculturist will most probably bring matters to a more favourable state for the consumer.

It is not, however, true that a state of war with Russia can shut us out from our supply of the produce of that country. It will come to us from her ports, unless we avail ourselves of our right to blockade them strictly, in the ships of neutral countries. A portion of it—and no inconsiderable portion—will reach us overland, Russia herself being the greatest sufferer, from the extra cost of transit. There can be no doubt of every effort being made by her great landowners to make market of their produce, and convert it at any sacrifice into money; for it must be borne in mind that they are at the present moment minus some seven or eight millions sterling of British and other money, usually advanced upon the forthcoming crops. We need scarcely point at the difficulty in which this want must place Russia in such a struggle as that in which she is at present engaged. The paper issues of her government may for a time be forced upon her slavish population as money. But that population requires large imports of tea, coffee, sugar, spices, fruits, wines, and other foreign products; and it is not difficult to predict that there will be found few capitalists in Europe or Asia, willing to accommodate her with a loan wherewith to pay even for these necessaries, much less to feed her grasping ambition by an advance of money for the purchase of additional arms and military stores. Moreover, we are not by any means so absolutely dependent upon Russia for many of the principal articles with which she has heretofore supplied us, as certain parties would wish us to believe. We could have an almost unlimited supply of flax and hemp from our own colonies, if we chose to encourage the cultivation of them there. In the mean time, Egypt furnishes us with the former article; and Manilla supplies us with a very superior quality of both. Belgium and Prussia are also producers, and with a little encouragement would no doubt extend their cultivation. Our own colonies, however, are our surest dependence for a supply of these and similar articles. An advance of seeds and money to the extent of less than one quarter of the sums which we have been in the habit of advancing to the Russian cultivator, would bring forward to this country a supply of the raw materials of flax and hemp, which would be quite in time, with our present stock, to relieve us from any danger of deficiency for at least a season to come. With respect to tallow, we have a right to depend upon America, both North and South, for a supply. Australia can send us an aid, at all events, to such supply; and we may probably have next year a larger quantity within our own resources. With respect to seeds, we shall be able to derive these from the countries whence flax and hemp are cultivated for our markets; and our timber, derived at present from Russia, we can certainly dispense with. There is nothing valuable in Russian timber except its applicability for the masting and sparring of ships requiring large growth; and, with our modern method of splicing yards and masts, we can do perfectly well with the less tall timber of Norway and Sweden.

The real fact is, that the alleged short supply of the raw materials to be expected from Russia is a perfect bugbear. We could dispense with Russia as a country of supply, were we to employ British capital to assist our own colonists, and other countries, to provide us with such supply. There was once, however, a Russian Company; and the trade seems to have been conducted as a monopoly ever since.

But we must get rid of this strange argument, that the value of the trade with a country consists in the large amount of indebtedness which we contract with its dealers. We have now to consider the relative value of Russia and Turkey as consumers of British manufactured goods and produce. The following we find to have been the value of British and Irish produce and manufactures exported to the two countries for the five years from 1846 to 1850:—

1846.1847.1848.1849.1850.
Turkey,£2,141,897£2,992,280£3,116,365£2,930,612£3,113,679
Russia,1,725,1481,844,5431,925,2261,566,5751,454,771

Turkey thus took from us in 1850 £1,658,908 in excess of Russia’s purchases, having increased that excess from £416,719 in 1846. The increased imports of the former country amounted in the five years to nearly a million sterling, or 50 per cent, whilst the imports of Russia fell off by £370,377, or above 20 per cent. There is this great difference, too, in the imports from this country of Russia and Turkey—The former takes from us raw materials, which we do not produce ourselves, deriving merely a mercantile or brokerage profit upon the supply; manufactured articles which contain the smallest amount of British labour; and machinery to aid the progress of her population as our rivals in manufacturing pursuits. The latter takes our fully manufactured and perfected fabrics. So far as our cotton and woollen manufacturers are concerned, Russia took in 1850—

Cotton yarn,£245,625
Woollen and worsted do.,304,016
Machinery and mill-work,203,992

The remainder of her imports from us consisted of foreign produce. Turkey took from us, however, a large amount of labour and skill, or its reward, as will be seen from the following table:—

Imports of Manufactured Textiles to Russia and Turkey in 1850.
Cotton. Woollen. Linen. Silk. Total.
Turkey, £2,232,369 £154,558 £22,500 £13,221 £2,422,348
Russia, 61,196 66,256 5,414 8,579 140,455
Total excess to Turkey, £2,280,903

Our exports to Russia have certainly increased in amount within the last two years, although our customs’ reports do not convey to us the full truth as to their character. We have been feeding that country with materials of mischief. She has had not only mill machinery, but the machinery of war-steamers from us; but most likely either Sir Charles Napier, or Admiral Dundas, will be enabled to render us a profitable account of the property thus invested.