Owing to the growth of the strength of our armies in 1917 when this battle began the combatant strength of the whole of the German Army on the western front was only approximately, though not quite, equal to the total combatant strength of the Allies in infantry. They were slightly inferior in artillery. They were considerably inferior in cavalry, and, what is very important, they were undoubtedly inferior in aircraft.
The Germans, therefore, organized their troops so as to produce a larger number of divisions out of the slightly smaller number of infantry and slightly smaller number of guns. They had fewer battalions in a division and fewer men in a battalion. That is entirely a question of organization, and it yet remains to be seen that their organization is better than ours. It is necessary to explain that, in order that the House should realize why, with approximately the same number of men, the Germans have a larger number of divisions on that front.
According to all the facts which have come to hand as to the losses of the battle, that roughly represents the relative strength of the combatants on both sides at this moment. The Germans had, however, one or two important advantages. The first, the initial advantage, which is always commanded by the offensive, is that they know where they mean to attack. They choose the ground, they choose the location, they know the width of the attack, they know the dimensions of the attack, they know the time of the attack, they know the method of the attack. All that invariably gives the initial advantage to the offensive.
Concentrated on the British
The defense has a general advantage, as, owing to air observation, concealment is difficult. At the same time, in spite of all that, owing to the power of moving troops at night, which the Germans exercised in a very large extent, there was a large margin for surprise, even in spite of air observation, and of this the enemy took full advantage.
I should like to say one word here as to the difficulty which the allied Generals were confronted with in this respect. Before the battle the greatest German concentration was in front of our troops. That was no proof that the full weight of the attack would fall on us. There was a very large concentration opposite the French lines. There was a very considerable concentration—I am referring now to the German reserves—on the northern part of our line.
After the battle began, or immediately before the battle, the Germans by night brought their divisions from the northern part to the point where the attack took place. They also took several divisions from opposite the French in the same way and brought them to our front. But it would have been equally easy for them, while concentrating troops opposite our front, to manoeuvre them in the same way opposite the French. I am only referring to that in order to show how exceedingly difficult it is for Generals on the defensive to decide exactly where, in their judgment, the attack is coming and where they ought to concentrate their reserves.
General Wilson's Forecast
I may just say a word here. This problem was considered very closely by the military staff at Versailles, and I think it right, in justice to them, to point out that after a very close study of the German position and of the probabilities of the case, they came to the conclusion, and they stated their conclusion to the military representatives and to the Ministers in the month of January, or the beginning of February, that the attack would come south of Arras; that it would be an attack on the widest front ever yet assailed; that the Germans would accumulate ninety-five divisions for the purpose of making that attack; that they would throw the whole of their resources and their strength into breaking the British line at that point, and that their objective would be the capture of Amiens and the severance of the British and French forces.
That was the conclusion which Sir Henry Wilson, Chief of the Imperial Staff, came to, and which was submitted at that time, two or three months ago, and I think that it was one of the most remarkable forecasts of enemy intentions ever made.