They never can be more profitable, because capital and enterprise will always be attracted to any occupation which offers a larger profit than the usual rate, till it is reduced to a level with others; they will usually be less profitable, indeed always in a community of increasing numbers, because the price being maintained by restriction above the price of the world, prevents an extension of such trades in the same proportion as those who naturally belong to them, and look to them for occupation, increase in numbers: they will be exposed to greater vicissitudes, because, being confined to the supply of only one market, any accidental circumstance, which either increases the usual supply, or diminishes the usual demand, will cause an infinitely greater depression than if they were in a condition to avail themselves of the markets of the whole world, over which they could spread an accidental and unusual surplus.
Thus, previous to 1824, the silk manufacturers of this country were protected to a greater extent than any other trade, and the price of silk goods was maintained much above the rate of other countries; our silk trade was therefore necessarily confined almost exclusively to the home market and our colonies, and though they had a monopoly of those markets, it was at the cost of exclusion (on account of higher price) from all other markets.
Notwithstanding this monopoly, the silk manufacturers could never command at any time larger profits than other trades; for had they done so, competition would have increased until the rate was reduced to the common level of the country: on the contrary, the tendency was for profits and rates of wages to be smaller than in other great manufacturing branches, requiring equal capital and skill; because, with the increasing numbers who belonged to the silk trade,—the sons of manufacturers and of weavers, who naturally, in the first instance, look to the trade of their parents for their occupation,—the trade did not proportionably increase, from the fact of our being unable to extend our exports; and, lastly, it was exposed to much greater vicissitudes than other trades; for when, either from a temporary change of fashion or taste, or from a temporary stagnation of trade in this country, the accustomed demand was lessened, the silk manufacturers were unable to obtain any relief by extending their trade in the great neutral markets of the world, being excluded by price, and the whole surplus quantity remained a dead weight on this market only; whereas other branches of manufactures, practically enjoying no protection, in the case of depressed trade at home, had an opportunity of immediate relief, by spreading the surplus thereby created, at a very trifling sacrifice, over the wide markets which they supplied.
In this way the extent and duration of the vicissitudes and depressions in the silk trade were without parallel in any other; but since 1824, since this trade has been placed in a natural position by the removal of monopoly, the whole aspect of it has changed, and these peculiar evils have all disappeared.
Then again with regard to the products of land, which the law attempts to protect more highly than any other. Here again, though the price to the community is maintained much above the prices of other countries, no one person connected with raising the produce can command a higher rate of profit, or higher wages for labour, than other trades having no protection whatever; for if they did, competition would soon reduce them to the same level; but, on the contrary, the wages, of agricultural labourers, and the profits of farmers, are always rather below than above the common rate, and simply from this fact, that the children of farm labourers, and of farmers, who first naturally look to the pursuits of their parents for a trade or occupation, increase in numbers without any corresponding extension of the means of employment, and the competition among them is therefore always greater than in other trades which have the power of extension; and the vicissitudes to which the farmer is exposed are notoriously greater than any other trade. His rent and expenses throughout are fixed by an artificial price of produce, which price can only be maintained as long as a certain scarcity exists; but the moment the markets are plentifully supplied, either from a want of demand owing to a depression of trade, or from the result of a good harvest, he finds that plenty takes out of his hand all control of price, which quickly sinks to the natural rate.
With a free trade the farmer would never be exposed to such reverses. In that state, if the demand and price increased, it would be checked by an increase of imports from other countries; if the demand and price diminished, that would also be checked by a reduction or cessation of the usual imports, and, if necessary, by an export of any surplus which pressed upon the market;—and, if our space allowed, it would not be difficult to show that, with prices at the natural rate, all parties connected with land would not only be in a safer but a much better condition.
No cautious man who well understands the subject will ever hazard his capital in any trade exposed to so many evils and to so much uncertainty as restriction and protection infallibly introduce into it:—but the great error which misleads all men in cherishing such trades is, that they mistake high prices for high profits, which usually, instead of being synonymous terms, are quite the reverse.
AGRICULTURE.
No. II.
ON THE INDICATIONS WHICH ARE GUIDES IN JUDGING OF THE FERTILITY OR BARRENNESS OF THE SOIL.
BY THE REV. WILLIAM THORP.
(Continued from No. 2.)