Mr. Maxim assumes that the first year of the war will cost the warring powers fifteen billions of dollars. But this is only five per cent. of their total wealth, which is estimated at $300,000,000,000.
It must also be remembered that the same thing largely holds true in regard to war expenditures that holds true of current expenditures in time of peace. The cost, for the most part, comes out of the ground. The world makes its peaceful expenditures and not only recompenses itself from production, but actually adds to capital. In war, of course, there is a lot of non-productive expenditure, but on the other hand there is some added stimulus of production and greater enforced economy in everything save in the actual expenditures for carrying on the war. And in the labor of producing war material, transportation and feeding of armies, pay of the soldiers and for all labor incidental to the activities of the war, the money spent is chiefly returned to the people themselves. Labor in all the warring countries is now more highly compensated than it was prior to the war. Mr. Hudson estimates that the actual out-of-pocket loss to the nations in the present war, taking into account the compensating economic advantages, will not exceed two and one half per cent. for the first year’s operations.
In regard to loss of population Mr. Maxim’s figures are equally striking. The population of the warring nations is more than four hundred millions, taking into account only such part of the East Indian population in proportion to the percentage of troops furnished by them as compared with the percentage furnished by the United Kingdom to the number of its inhabitants. The total number killed and wounded in the whole war, on both sides, during the first six months may be stated at about two millions. Consequently the total loss in killed and wounded during the first six months was less than a half of one per cent. of the populations engaged. Many of the wounded suffer very little permanent injury, and the number killed does not exceed ten per cent. of the total of killed and wounded. Therefore the loss of killed and permanently disabled is much less than half of one per cent., and for the first year will hardly exceed one per cent.
If these estimates are anywhere near correct, it would be a long time before the nations engaged in this gigantic war could be exhausted either in wealth or men.
Some interesting light is thrown upon the ability of one of the warring countries, Germany, to carry on the war indefinitely by a letter written by Prof. Max Sering, of the University of Berlin, to W. S. McNeill, of Richmond, Virginia, and published in a recent issue of the New York Times. Prof. Sering was asked by Mr. McNeill for information as to whether Germany would be able to get along with her food and war material supply. Heretofore, he says, Germany has been in the habit of importing from one fifth to one fourth of all her food material and foodstuffs. The shutting off of her sea commerce led to a search for substitutes and also to governmental regulations for economizing supplies. As a result of the unceasing labor of scientists and practical inventors, Prof. Sering announces that the problems of supply have been completely solved in every direction. “We can now,” he triumphantly announces, “continue the war indefinitely. The complete cutting off of the supply of Chili saltpetre during the war has been made good by our now taking nitrogen directly out of the air. With extraordinary rapidity the question had been solved how the enormous quantities of the needed ammunition was to be produced. It is, however, not only for the needed explosives that we take the nitrogen from the air, but also for fertilizers which we formerly imported in the form of Chilean saltpetre. As for foodstuffs, the government, on February 1, 1915, took over all the grain and prescribed to each one a certain portion of bread and flour. In the beginning this portion was somewhat scant because we wanted to be sure that our supply would last until the new crop. Now, however, it is found that we are entering the new crop year with such large stocks that the price of flour and bread could be reduced considerably and the bread portion of the working population could be enlarged. Potatoes, also which for a time were very expensive, have lately become quite cheap. Unemployment is now less than before the war, the workmen receive higher wages, and the masses are well nourished. The supply of meat will become somewhat scant by and by, but that does not matter, as we have been in the habit of eating too much meat.”
As the war proceeds it is inevitable that the other countries engaged in it, whether hostile or friendly, will take example from Germany and resort to measures to conserve and increase their material resources. Modern science has wonderfully unlocked the storehouses of nature, and increased energy and industry can to some extent make good the waste and destruction of war. We cannot therefore expect to see the war end very soon from the exhaustion of any of the combatants. This is the outlook of the war in its physical aspect. What political or moral forces may be evoked to shorten it is beyond our ken.
Mr. Hudson Maxim’s book was written to call attention to the practically defenseless condition of the United States and to urge adequate preparation. We do not care to follow him in his voluminous argument on this score, but the concluding paragraph of his ninth chapter, to the effect that “when the war is over, any one of the warring powers, unless Germany is exceedingly humbled, will be in better condition in every way to fight the United States than it would have been before the war broke out,” is worthy of careful consideration. Of course Mr. Maxim means any one of the great powers, but we should be in danger, if in danger at all, from no more than three. These would be Great Britain, Japan, and Germany, as these are the only powers that possess navies strong enough to carry on operations across the seas against the United States, even in our present condition of unpreparedness. And no one of these could afford to attack us unless the others would give tacit consent, or agree to remain neutral. Perhaps after the war is over, however it may end, the European peoples would be so weary of war that they would not permit their governments to stand in the way of any nation that might want to attack this country, and hence that we should have to rely entirely upon our own strength for defense. The question of how much naval and military preparation we should make against future contingencies is a vital one and cannot be ignored. Everybody is in favor of peace. The question is, which is the surest way to peace?—unorganized helplessness, or organized strength?
THE COMPOSITION OF THE WORLD COURT
BY
EMERSON McMILLIN