“The Führer sees case 3 looming nearer; it could develop from the existing tensions in the Mediterranean, and should it occur, he has firmly decided to make use of it any time, perhaps even as early as 1938.
“Following recent experiences in the course of the events of the war in Spain, the Führer does not see an early end to hostilities there.
“Taking into consideration the time required for past offensives by Franco,”—the English text says “France”; it means “Franco”—“a further 3 years’ duration of war is within the bounds of possibility. On the other hand, from the German point of view, a 100 per cent victory by Franco is not desirable; we are more interested in a continuation of the war and preservation of the tensions in the Mediterranean. Should Franco be in sole possession of the Spanish peninsula, it would mean the end of Italian intervention and of the presence of Italy in the Balearic Isles. As our interests are directed towards continuing the war in Spain, it must be the task of our future policy to strengthen Italy in her fight to hold on to the Balearic Isles. However, a solidification of Italian positions in the Balearic Isles cannot be tolerated either by France or by England and could lead to a war by France and England against Italy, in which case Spain, if entirely in White (that is, Franco’s) hands, could participate on the side of Italy’s enemies. A subjugation of Italy in such a war appears very unlikely. Additional raw materials could be brought to Italy via Germany. The Führer believes that Italy’s military strategy would be to remain on the defensive against France on the western frontier and carry out operations against France from Libya, against the North African French colonial possessions.
“As a landing of French and British troops on the Italian coast can be discounted, and as a French offensive via the Alps to upper Italy would be extremely difficult, and would probably stagnate before the strong Italian fortifications, French lines of communication by the Italian fleet will, to a great extent, paralyze the transport of fighting personnel from North Africa to France, so that at its frontiers with Italy and Germany, France will have at its disposal solely the metropolitan fighting forces.”
There again I think that must be a defective English translation. “French lines of communication by the Italian fleet,” must mean “fresh lines,” or something in that connection.
“If Germany profits from this war by disposing of the Czechoslovakian and the Austrian questions, the probability must be assumed that England, being at war with Italy, would not decide to commence operations against Germany. Without British support, a warlike action by France against Germany is not to be anticipated.
“The date of our attack on Czechoslovakia and Austria must be made depending upon the course of the Italian-French-English war and would not be simultaneous with the commencement of military operations by these three States. The Führer was also not thinking of military agreements with Italy, but in complete independence and by exploiting this unique favorable opportunity, he wishes to begin to carry out operations against Czechoslovakia. The attack on Czechoslovakia would have to take place with the speed of lightning.”—The German words are “blitzartig schnell.”
“Feldmarschall Von Blomberg and Generaloberst Von Fritsch, in giving their estimate on the situation, repeatedly pointed out that we should not run the risk that England and France become our enemies:
“They stated that the war with Italy would not bind the French Army to such an extent that it would not be in a position to commence operations on our western frontier with superior forces. Generaloberst Von Fritsch estimated the French forces which would presumably be employed on the Alpine frontier against Italy to be in the region of 20 divisions, so that a strong French superiority would still remain on our western frontier. The French would, according to German reasoning, attempt to advance into the Rhineland. We should consider the lead which France has in mobilization and, quite apart from the very small value of our then-existing fortifications, which was pointed out particularly by General Feldmarschall Von Blomberg; the four motorized divisions which had been laid down for the West would be more or less incapable of movement.
“With regard to our offensive in a southeasterly direction, Feldmarschall Von Blomberg drew special attention to the strength of the Czechoslovakian fortifications, the building of which had assumed the character of a Maginot Line and which would present extreme difficulties to our attack.