The theory and practice of argumentation and debate

by Victor Alvin Ketcham

Political campaign oratory abounds in this kind of fallacy. One political party comes into power and a period of industrial prosperity follows. The party leaders point to their administration as the cause of the prosperity. On the other hand if a period of depression follows the election, the opponents of the successful party point to it as the cause of the disaster. Seldom in such cases is any real causal relation established. It is more often merely coincidence.

No fallacy is more inexcusable than that which asserts a mere prior occurrence as a cause. Because it rained last Sunday and to-day I lose my pocketbook is no reason why I should maintain that last Sunday’s rain was the cause of my loss. Yet many arguments are advanced based upon a lack of causal relation as evident as that of the above coincidence. In an inter-class debate one of the speakers maintained that the large number of Chinese in a certain city was the cause of the greater amount of crime which existed in that city as compared with other cities of the same size. No causal relation was established, but the mere fact of the presence of the Chinese was set forth as proof that the Chinese were responsible for the crime. One of the critics of the debate pointed out that it was just as reasonable to suppose that the unusually cold weather of the winter just passed was caused by the large number of Congregationalists in the state.

Even when two events are repeatedly associated so far as time is concerned we should not regard the repetition as proof of the causal relation but only as an indication that a causal relation probably exists. We should not arrive at any definite conclusion until the existence of the causal relation has been finally established.

(2). Mistaking an effect for a cause.

The fallacy of mistaking an effect for a cause consists in pointing to one effect as the cause of another effect when in reality both effects are the result of one cause. For example, a recent writer attributes the anarchistic tendency of the masses of Russia to the arrogance of the soldiery in that country. This reasoning is criticised on the ground that both the anarchistic tendencies of the masses and the arrogance of the soldiery are effects of the same cause, viz.—the despotic government of Russia.

(3). Mistaking a subsequent cause for a real cause.

This fallacy arises when an effect is observed and in the search for the cause we accept something which in reality happened after the effect was observed. A striking example of this fallacy occurred in a recent municipal election. The increased cost of city government was charged to the present mayor. His opponents pointed to him as the cause of this increase in the city’s expenses. The mayor’s friends revealed the fallacy by showing that the expense had really been incurred under the former mayor. The acts of the present mayor could not have been the cause of the increased expense because that expense had been incurred before he went into office. Therefore those who made the unjust charge had committed the fallacy of mistaking a subsequent cause for the real cause.

(4). Mistaking an insufficient cause for a sufficient cause.

This fallacy differs from those previously discussed in that there exists some causal relation between the effect and the alleged cause. The error consists of a failure to recognize the insufficiency of the cause to produce the effect without the help of some other cause.

In a discussion of the proposition, “Resolved, that department stores have proved a benefit to municipal communities,” one speaker argued that such stores were the cause of the low price at which small necessities such as hardware and dry-goods novelties could be purchased by the consumer. The next speaker exposed the fallacy of this argument by admitting that department stores had been a factor in lowering the cost of such commodities, but that this could not have been done except for the assistance of another and more powerful cause, viz.,—the invention of machinery by which such articles could be manufactured in enormous quantities.