Herbert Spencer, a disciple of Darwin, who formulated a general law of evolution, that is valid for the natural and universal history, says that “.... evolution is absolutely continuous, it has no beginning nor end, there are no periods nor other subdivisions of a rhythmic character”.
The most acute criticism was presented by the French philosopher, Charles Renouvier, who, in a very ingenious manner, reduced Spencer’s extreme evolutionism into the absurd. In his book, “Uchronia”, he shows that in the history of humanity there is no infinite continuity, but that once and again cisures are produced and where from something finished something new is started.
Let us now see the cyclical aspect to war and peace. The periodicity of approximately 50 years has been found in wars having worldly importance, only in the XVIII, XIX centuries and the beginning of the XX century. In the space of approximately 200 years, five great warlike periods: the Spanish War of Succession, the three Sicilian Wars, the fist Napoleonic Wars, the Crimean War, the National Wars for the Unity of Italy and Germany, the American War of Secession, and the First World War. Toybee himself does not want to believe or admit the very optimistic forecast that the chart presents: Finding ourselves in the beginning of a great period of universal peace.
Toybee’s scheme is even less useful for prediction than the most ancient theory of the 50-year cycle. There is also the interpretation of the 1:2 relationship. After thirteen years of the Spanish War of Succession (1701-1714), there followed 26 years of peace; the period of the Sicilian Wars which, with varied intervals lasted 23 years, were followed by 33 years of peace; the period of 19 years of the Napoleonic wars (1796-1815), was followed by a period of 38 years of peace that extended until the Crimean War in 1853. The period of war that begins lasts 18 years until the end of the Franco-Prussian conflict in 1871, followed by an era of relative tranquility that lasts 40 years and extends until the Italo-Turkish war in 1911.
Afterwards, in Eastern Europe, before and after the First World War, there are almost uninterrupted warlike actions that extend until 1920. Peace follows this stage of 9 years. The Second World War lasted 6 years, but the annexations of Austria and Czechoslovakia in 1938 made by Hitler, without bloodshed must be added. Then, if a period of 7 to 8 years must be followed by one of peace of a double duration, according to a 1:2 relation, it could be said that in 1960 a new era of war should have begun.
This 1:2 relationship regarding the periods of war and peace, coincide with a very approximate rhythm in the economic juncture. Here each period of crises is followed by one of prosperity of a double duration. This is based on good human, physiological and psychological reasons. After a stage of extreme tension, danger and scarcity, double time would be needed to recover, rest and gather new energy. This rhythm has more probability of fulfillment than the ancient formula that one same generation does not go two times to war. There exists the period of centralization and decentralization. At the beginning, great wars, as the First World War, have an annexing and centralizing character but, afterwards, they end with the dismemberment of ancient and great empires and with the formation of numerous new states.
After the recognition of the independence of the United States of America by England in 1783, a first centralizing period begins in 1787, that goes beyond the French Revolution and the first decade of the Napoleonic Wars. Many small states disappear, the few states founded by Napoleon are merely vassal states. But in 1810, a new series is constituted, first in South America, where up to 1822 independent states begin, and afterwards in Europe with Greece and Belgium (1830).
In 1833, with the German Customs Union, a centralized period begins that ends in the union of Italy and Germany, period that extends until 1871. But starting from then and, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, the tendency towards the independence of nations is imposed: creation of the Balkan States (1878), independence of Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia, resurrection of Poland, foundation of the Balkan States, Syria and Irak (1.918-1.920).
Afterwards, there comes the other centralistic wave that leads Italy to annex in 1936; Germany does the same with Austria and Czechoslovakia (1938-1939), and Russia takes over the Baltic States during the Second World War. Starting in 1947, a great movement of independence begins: India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Morocco, Tunisia and the foundation of Israel.
Together and during a period of more than 170 years, three periods of union have alternated with each other with three periods of separation: