A New Europe
It follows then that, even if we admit the purely speculative character of our argument, it is not only right and proper, but absolutely necessary that we should prepare ourselves for something which we can really describe as a new Europe. Thoughtful minds ought imaginatively to put themselves in the position of a spectator of a reconstituted world, or rather of a world that waits to be reconstituted. It is necessary that this should be done, because so many older prejudices have to be swept away, so many novel conceptions have to be entertained. Let us take only a single example. If we look back over history, we shall see that all the great nations have made themselves great by war. There is a possible exception in the case of Italy, whose present greatness has flowed from loyal help rendered her by other kindred nations, and by realising for herself certain large patriotic ideals entertained by great minds. But for the majority of nations it is certainly true that they have fought their way into the ranks of supreme powers. From this the deduction is easy that greatness depends on the possession of formidable military power. Indeed, all the arguments of those who are very anxious that we should not reduce our armaments is entirely based on this supposition. The strong man armed keepeth his goods in peace; his only fear is that a stronger man may come with better arms and take away his possessions. Now if the new Europe dawns not indeed for those who are past middle age—for they will have died before its realisation—but for the younger generation for whose sake we are bearing the toil and burden of the day, the one thing which is absolutely necessary is that the index of greatness must no longer be found in armies and navies. Clearly it will take a long time for men to get used to this novel conception. Inveterate prejudices will stand in the way. We shall be told over and over again that peace-lovers are no patriots; that imperialism demands the possible sacrifice of our manhood to the exigencies of war; and that the only class of men who are ever respected in this world are those who can fight. And so, even though we have had ocular demonstration of the appalling ruin which militarism can produce, we may yet, if we are not careful, forget all our experience and drift back into notions which are not really separable from precisely those ideas which we are at present reprobating in the German nation. The real test is this: Is, or is not, war a supreme evil? It is no answer to this question to suggest that war educes many splendid qualities. Of course it does. And so, too, does exploration of Polar solitudes, or even climbing Alpine or Himalayan heights. Either war is a detestable solution of our difficulties, or it is not. If it is not, then we have no right whatsoever to object to the Prussian ideal. But if it is, let us call it by its proper name. Let us say that it is devil's work, and have done with it.
Evil of Armaments
We are trying not only to understand what Europe will be like if, as we hope, this war ends successfully for the Allies, but what sort of new Europe it will be in the hands of the conquerors to frame. Those who come after us are to find in that new Europe real possibilities of advance in all the higher kinds of civilisation. Not only are the various states to contain sane and healthy people who desire to live in peace with their neighbours, but people who will desire to realise themselves in science, in philosophic thought, in art, in literature. What is an indispensable condition for an evolution of this sort? It must be the absence of all uneasiness, the growth of a serene confidence and trust, the obliteration of envy, jealousy, and every kind of unreasonableness. The cause, above all others, which has produced an opposite condition of things, which has created the unfortunate Europe in which we have hitherto had to live, is the growth and extension of armaments. The main factor, then, in our problem is the existence of such swollen armaments as have wasted the resources of every nation and embittered the minds of rival peoples. How are we to meet this intolerable evil of armaments?
Absence of Provocation
In the first place, let us remark that on our supposition—the eventual victory of the Allies—one of the great disturbing elements will have been put out of the field. Europe has hitherto been lulled into an uneasy and fractious sleep by the balance of two great organisations. Under the happiest hypothesis the Triple Alliance and the Triple Entente will have disappeared into the deep backward and abysm of time. For all practical purposes there will be no Triple Alliance, and therefore no Triple Entente to confront it. With Austria wiped out of the map for all purposes of offence, and Germany restricted within modest dimensions, the three powers of the Triple Entente—Great Britain, France, and Russia—can do what they like, and as they are sworn friends and allies they can take their own steps undisturbed by fears of hostile combinations. Why should these three allies consent any further to keep up bloated armaments? It is against their own interests and against the interests of the world. So long as Germany existed as a power and developed her own ambitions, we were always on the edge of a catastrophe. With the conquest of Germany that nightmare will have gone. And observe some of the consequences which must inevitably follow. It was against the menace of Germany that France had to pass her three years' law of military service: in the absence of the German army France can reduce as she pleases her military establishment. It was against the menace of a German fleet that we had to incur an outlay of millions of pounds: in the absence of the German fleet we, too, can do what we please. It is certain also that Russia, so long as the deep-seated antagonism between Teuton and Slav remained, was under strong compulsion to reform and reinforce her army.