Influenza

by Warren T. Vaughan

We quote Stallybrass in some detail (see Chart XII):

“Dr. John Brownlee pointed out that from July 13th to March 1st (the maxima of the summer wave of 1918 and of the spring wave of 1919) is 33 weeks, but that the wave having its crest in this country on November 2, 1918, does not fall into the sequence, leaving one to infer that there were two strains of the influenzal virus in operation.

“I supplement his investigation by the weekly deaths occurring in Liverpool during the period 1890–1919 that were ascribed to influenza and to all respiratory diseases. Prior to 1890 there were no deaths attributed to influenza for a number of years.

“Closely corresponding with Brownlee’s observations on London by far the most definite periodicity is shown during the years 1890–1899, during which period there is one well marked maximumly at the seventh week of the cycle. During the period 1899–1913 a new maximum in the nineteenth week of the cycle comes into play and continues to recur until the culminating point is reached in the week ending October 26, 1918, a week earlier than in most English towns (Wave III); a further 66 weeks carries one forward to the first week in February of this year, as Brownlee pointed out, and the outbreaks that are being reported in Japan, Paris, Chicago, New York, etc., would show that this strain has punctually reappeared.

“There is also evidence in the table of a small maximum at the twenty-seventh week of the cycle in the earlier sub-period, and at the twenty-ninth week in the later sub-period; slight movements of the maxima forwards or backwards in the cycle over a number of years may, perhaps, indicate a periodicity slightly greater or less than 33 weeks. The twenty-ninth week of the cycle fell on the weeks ending May 18, 1918, and January 10, 1919. An examination of the figures in Dr. Hope’s annual report for Liverpool for 1918 shows that there was a definite wave of influenza reaching its crest on May 18th (Wave I), and there is also a definite rise in the deaths from influenza, respiratory diseases, and from all causes, making a small peak in the week ending January 3, 1919, but it is hidden by the enormous waves of October and March, so that it only appears as an irregularity in the curve; but it was noted at the time that influenza had not declined in Liverpool in January in the way that it had in practically all other English towns. These two waves do not appear to have played a large part in this country, but the outbreaks in the Grand Fleet in May, 1918, and also in Spain, Glasgow, etc., may, perhaps, be attributed to it. In the United States in January, 1919, it would appear to have played a much larger part. In a large number of American cities two waves are experienced, the first being the October wave; the crest of the second wave sometimes fell in March, as did one of the crests in this country, but in a number of instances, e.g., Cambridge, Washington, San Francisco, New Orleans, etc., it fell in January, or to be exact, in the thirty-first and thirty-second weeks of the cycle. The close relationship of Liverpool and Glasgow with the United States through the incoming stream of American troops may perhaps account for the presence of this May wave in these two towns, and not the rest of England.

CHART XII.

Periodogram based on the weekly influenza deaths in Liverpool between 1890 and 1919. The curves are based on a thirty-three week periodicity. (Stallybrass.)

“The third maximum in the fourth week of the cycle is represented during the late outbreak by the waves culminating in Liverpool, and also the greater number of English towns on the weeks ending July 13 (Wave II) and March 1 (Wave IV). This is a 33-week interval. This wave recurred at an interval of 32–34 weeks in a large number of English towns.

“Of 65 towns which experienced all three waves 47 (72 per cent.) had their maxima in the summer and spring epidemics within an interval of 32–34 weeks; but comparing the week in which any given town had its epidemic peak in the summer and autumn, and autumn and spring epidemics only 27 (41 per cent.) and 31 (47 per cent.) respectively fell within the limit of a week on either side. The time relationships of the maxima in summer and spring were much closer to each other than they were to the autumn maxima.