Frost has found from his large survey that the ratio of deaths to total cases of influenza varied in the localities surveyed from 3.1 per cent. in New London as a high point to 2.8 per cent. in San Antonio, Texas. There was some apparent relationship between fatality rate and geographic distribution, the higher rates being in San Francisco on the Pacific Coast, and in the localities studied on the north half of the Atlantic Seaboard, and the lower rates being in the central and southern states. The fatality rate on the Pacific Coast was 2.33, on the Atlantic Seaboard 2.05, and in the last district 1.08 per cent.
Our own figures correspond very closely with those of Frost. Among the 10,000 living individuals surveyed in 1920 there were 1,970 cases of influenza in 1918. Add to this the 50 deaths for 1918, which were not included in the 10,000 living individuals, which makes a total incidence of 2,021. This case fatality rate of 2.47 per 100, corresponds closely to Frost’s rate for the North Atlantic Seaboard.
The relative mildness of the 1920 recurrence is indicated in the lower case fatality rate. Fourteen out of 955 cases died, giving a rate of 1.47 per 100 cases.
Mortality by sex.—There is not a uniformity of opinion as to which sex suffered the higher fatality rate during the 1918–19 spread. Winslow and Rogers found for Connecticut a distinctly heavier mortality among males for the last four months of 1918, 58 per cent. of the influenza-pneumonia deaths being among this sex. They believe that this is probably due to a greater exposure to the original infection.
Fränkel and Dublin point out that in a study of 70,729 policy holders of the Industrial Department of the Metropolitan Life Insurance Company in the period from October 1, 1918, to June, 1919, the death rates for males and females were practically the same for both white and colored individuals.
The excess of males over females among the whites is only three per cent., and there was no excess among colored. In contrast, the respiratory diseases, including influenza-pneumonia, under normal conditions, show a higher mortality incidence among males than among females. In the seven year period from 1911 to 1917 the mortality rate showed an excess of 18 per cent. males over females, among whites, and of 30 per cent. among colored. This would seem to indicate that the effect of the epidemic was not much, if any, greater on males than on females, and suggests that the excess mortality caused by the epidemic did not operate on the sexes as the normal mortality from influenza-pneumonia had in previous years.
Dunlop finds that in a study of 10,797 deaths registered in Scotland up until the end of December, 1918, 52.44 per cent. were females and 47.56 were males. These were for deaths reported as due only to influenza. Apert and Flipo found a decided predominance among the female deaths in Paris. In both of these observations the absence from the civilian population of male inhabitants of military age obscured correct comparative statistics.
Once again, Frost gives the most comprehensive discussion of the subject. He found, as we have stated, that the influenza case incidence in persons over fifteen years of age was higher in females than in males, and that in persons under fifteen the relative incidence as between males and females is variable, but with very slight excess in males for the localities studied, combined. On the other hand, the case fatality, the per cent. of influenza cases dying, under fifteen years of age, was higher in females than in males. Over sixty years of age it was considerably higher among the females, but between the ages of fifteen and sixty the general tendency was to a much higher case fatality among the males. The difference was greatest between the ages of 20 and 40. The case fatality between the ages of 15 and 45 in the group of southern and central states was in decided contrast to that in the Northern Atlantic and Pacific groups, the case fatality in the former being remarkably low in both sections and slightly higher in females than in males. He suggests that in the south and middle west where the epidemic was generally milder in respect to mortality than in the northeast and far west, the essential difference was not in case incidence, but in case fatality, especially in persons from 15 to 45 years of age, and in the relatively low case fatality among young male adults. Frost makes the important point that the relative mortality is determined more accurately by case fatality than by case incidence, and that without a full and exact knowledge of the variations in case fatality, statistics of mortality are by no means translatable to terms of relative morbidity. The fact that certain cities showed, as described by Pearl, relatively high mortality rates, does not give conclusive evidence that the morbidity was higher in these cities than elsewhere. The lower influenza case fatality in females from 15 to 60 years of age appears to be accounted for in part at least: first, by a decreased incidence of pneumonia as compared with the males; and, second, by a lower fatality in those cases which did develop pneumonia.
The relatively small number of fatalities in our own records do not warrant a classification by age groups. We found that for all ages in 1918 7.9 per cent. of females developed pneumonia as contrasted with 6.8 per cent. males. This does not include those who died. In 1920, 1.87 per cent. of the male cases died, while only 0.37 per cent. of the females died. Five and fifteen-hundredths per cent. of all male cases developed pneumonia and recovered, and 3.56 of the females did likewise. In 1920 a higher proportion of males than females developed pneumonia, and likewise a higher proportion died.
Relationship of age.—Leichtenstern has summarized the results for the epidemic of thirty years ago, in saying that the death rate for children under one year was little disturbed by the influenza epidemic; that there was very little increase in mortality in the other ages of childhood; that the higher age periods showed the greatest relative mortality for the disease. On the contrary, the records for England and for Switzerland showed during those periods a higher death rate in children up to five years of age.