As in the case of passenger traffic, this percentage is surely not only a reasonable estimate, but one which may reasonably be anticipated, and, further, the increase will be progressive.
The following among other reasons may be adduced:—
1. The example of the Post Office is the best precedent that can be given of the result of the adoption of a minimum uniform rate. In the year before the introduction of Penny Post the number of letters per head of population was only three. This number is now 72, irrespective of postcards and parcels, and it is still increasing. The number of letters carried in 1838 was 70,000,000. In the first complete year after the Penny Post was established this number was doubled. In 1863 it had multiplied by eight times, and since then it has been doubled in about every period of 20 years.
2. The large amount of goods sent now by road, especially in recent years by motors and steam tractors on account not only of the heavy railway rates but also the cost of loading and unloading, would with uniform rates be sent by rail. In this connection it may be mentioned that a very considerable increase of carriage by trolley trucks of loaded carts and pantechnicons, or of the “containers” advocated by the New Transport Company, Limited, thus avoiding both shunting and the double expense of packing and unpacking, may reasonably be anticipated.
3. A still greater increase in fast train traffic may be expected in perishable articles, such as fruit, fish, milk and dairy produce. The so-called reduced rates now in force for instance for carriage of fresh fruit vary from 1s. 6d. per cwt. (equals £1 10s. per ton), from Hampshire to London up to as much as 8s. per cwt. (equals £8 per ton), from Hampshire to Scotland, these rates being “reduced” on account of the large amount of fruit (strawberries), requiring in the season special trains carrying nothing but fruit. The rates for the same goods from other parts where the quantity is not so considerable are in some cases more than double, so that the farmers cannot afford to send the goods. The rates for fish are similar, and the same considerations apply, so that very little is consigned to town except from fishing centres like Grimsby where large quantities are available.
4. With a regular service from every station, village stations as well as the large towns, and similar to the present postal service, in fact forming an extension to all goods of the present Parcels Post service, no one can doubt that the total increase will be considerably more than the 10 per cent. estimated for.
CHAPTER VI.
WORKING EXPENSES.
Most critics will contend that the increased traffic will lead to an enormous increase of working expenses.