EFFECT OF WARS ON POPULATION.
We may now understand why it is that only those wars which are accompanied by a diminution of the sources of the means of support decrease population. The loss in the numbers of mankind produced by wars, hardships, etc., would, as a rule, be readily made up for by increased procreation.[241-1] Thus, for instance, in Holland, the long Spanish war permitted an increase of the population for the reason that the national wealth increased at the same time; while the short war with Cromwell, which curtailed commerce, caused 3,000 houses in Amsterdam alone to remain empty.[241-2] In England and Wales, the population increased during the most frightful war of modern times, from 8,540,000 in 1790, to over 12,000,000 in 1821; in France, from, probably, 26,000,000 or 27,000,000 in 1791, to 29,217,000 in 1817. England, indeed, was itself never the seat of war, and its commerce was increased by the war in some directions as much as it was diminished by it in others. France's own territory was devastated only in the first and in the last years of the war. But the Revolution had, on the whole, once the storms of the Reign of Terror were over, not only more equally divided the means of subsistence in France, but it had developed them in a higher degree.[241-3] [241-4]
It cannot even be unconditionally predicated of emigration, that it hinders the increase of population. As soon as people have begun to calculate upon emigration, as a resort for themselves in case of distress, or upon the emigration of others, by which they would be left a larger field for action at home, a number of marriages is contracted and a number of children born; which would otherwise not have been the case. Most men, especially when young and enamoured, hope for the realization of all their wishes. Favorable chances, open to a great number of men alike and which every one thinks himself competent to calculate, are commonly over-estimated by the majority.[241-5] (See § 259.)
[241-1] The war of 1870-71 cost Germany 44,890 lives. (Preuss. Statist. Ztschr., 1872, 293.) This number is not quite 20 per cent. of the excess of births (794,206) over deaths (563,065) in Prussia in the year 1865. On the other hand, in from 1856 to 1861 there were 10,000 cases of murder and manslaughter in all Europe, Turkey excepted. (Hausner, Vergl. Statistik, I, 145.) About the end of the last century, it was estimated that about 1,000,000 children were born annually in France. (Necker, Administration des Finances, I, 256.) Of these, about 600,000 outlived their 18th year. (Peuschet, Essai de Statistique, 31.) There were, annually, about 220,000 marriages. Hence the number of the unmarried was increased annually by 80,000 young men, who, according to Peucshet (32), amounted to over 1,450,000. According to this, the number of recruits, per annum, might amount to hundreds of thousands without causing any appreciable diminution in the number of births and marriages. Compare Malthus, Principle of Population, II, ch. 6. On the other hand, long continued wars have the effect of keeping the men physically strongest from marriage, and so to deteriorate the race.
[241-2] Richesse de Hollande, I, 149. During the Amsterdam commercial crisis, from 1795 to 1814, there were for every 4 births an average of 7 deaths. So that the population, in 1795, was still 217,000, and in 1815, only 180,000. (Bickes, Bewegung der Bevölkerung Anhang, 28.)
[241-3] On the other hand, the population of East Prussia, between 1807 and 1815 diminished 14 per cent. (v. Haxthausen, Ländl. Verfassung der Preuss. Monarchie, I, 93.) The battles of the Seven Years' War are said to have consumed 120,000 Russians, 140,000 Austrians, 200,000 Frenchmen, 160,000 Englishmen, Hanoverians, etc., 25,000 Swedes, 28,000 of the troops of the empire, and 180,000 Prussians. Yet the population of Prussia fell off 1,500,000. (Frédéric, Œuvres posthumes, IV, 414; Preuss. Gesch. Friedrich's M., II, 349.) During the Thirty Years' War, the population of Bohemia fell from 3,000,000 to 780,000. (Mailath, Gesch. von Oesterr, III, 455.) Württemberg, according to the military recruiting lists had a population, in 1622, of 300,000 inhabitants. (Spittler, Werke, XII, 34.) In 1641, the population was only 48,000; according to a promotion-speech of J. B. Andreä. But between 1628 and 1650, more than 58,000,000 florins were lost by war contributions, and about 60,000,000 florins by plunder; about 36,000 private houses were in ruins. (Spittler, Württ. Gesch., 254.) On Alsace, Freisingen and Göttingen, see Londorp, Bellum sexenn., II, 563; Zschocke, Bayerische Geschichte, III, 302; Spittler, Hanov. Gesch., II, 37 ff., 114. On Germany generally, see R. F. Hanser, Deutschland nach dem dreissigjährigen Kriege, 1862. However, many estimates of the diminution of the population are exaggerated, because it has not been considered that a great part of the men who disappeared in one place fled to another, for the time being more secure. Compare Kius in Hildebrand's Jahrb., 1870, I ff.
The population of Massachusetts increased 8,310 yearly, before the War of Independence; during the war, only 1,161, although the enemy scarcely ever entered the country. (Ebeling, Gesch. und Erdbeschreib. der V. Staaten I, 236.) Russia had a mortality during the war years, 1853-55, of 2,272,000, 2,148,000, and 2,541,000; in the years of peace previous, 2,000,000 at most.
[241-4] Besides the mere loss of men, war operates destructively on production, since it affects especially the most productive classes as to age, while pestilence, famine, etc., carry off children, old people, and the feeble. Hence, a people's public economy recovers more readily from the last named misfortune than from war.
[241-5] Compare Giov. Botero, Della Cause della Grandezza della Città, L. II, and Ragion di Stato, VIII, 95; where colonization is compared to the swarming of bees. W. Raleigh, Discourse of War in general, Works VIII. 257 ff. Similarly Child, Discourse of Trade, 371 ff. Ustariz, Teoria y Practica del Commercio, 1724, ch. 4. Franklin, Observations on the Increase of Mankind, which reminds one of the continued growth of polyps.