[246-11] Bernouilli, Populationistik, 363, seq. Whether, on this account, we can infer the increased health of the people, is very much doubted by the aged laudatores temporis acti. They would have us believe that it is possible that the prolongation of the average of human life is to be explained by taking into account the case of numerous valetudinarians who formerly died early, but who are now preserved to drag out a miserable existence. The relative number of those who have died of old age did not noticeably increase between 1816 and 1860 either in Berlin or in the Prussian state. (Engel, Zeitschr., 1862, 222.) Compare, per contra, Marx, Ueber die Abnahme der Krankheiten durch die Zunahme der Civilization: transactions of the Göttinger Gesellschaft[TN 82] der Wissenschaften, 1842—44,43, ff. The extreme limit of the decrease of mortality, where there are no other causes of death but inevitable weakness of childhood and age, J. G. Hoffmann thinks would be one death per annum for every 52-53 living, and Wappäus, one in 57-58. (Allg. Bevölkerungstatistik, I, 231, 340); (Schäffle, System, I, 571); according to Capeland observations, one for every fifty.

[246-12] This much, however, is clear, that the life insurance companies of the present day cannot rely on the calculations made in earlier stages of civilization; on Süssmilch's, for instance; and just as little on those of the old Romans in L. Digest. ad Leg. Falcidiam. Compare Schmelzer, De Probabilitate Vitae ejusque Usu forensi, 1788.

SECTION CCXLVII.

HISTORY OF POPULATION.—NUMBER OF BIRTHS AND DEATHS.

There is found to be in most states, where a decrease in mortality has been observed, a diminished number of births likewise.[247-1] This, indeed, happens necessarily only in the case in which the means of subsistence either do not increase at all, or in a less degree than mortality has decreased. Thus, towards the end of the 18th century, Norway was the country where the increase and decrease of the population were most remarkable for their smallness. There was only one death between 1775 and 1784 for every 48 living persons; but, at the same time, only one marriage for every 130 living.[247-2] The organization of labor was so little developed among the Norwegians, especially in the absence of important cities, the industries of which might have been able to absorb the surplus population, that almost every one of its inhabitants was in a condition to calculate in advance whether or not he would have enough to support a family. A person born in the country remained generally in his native village all his life. To found a family he had either to own a peasant's estate himself or wait until one of the day laborer's huts (Kathe), of which there were several attached to each such estate, was vacant. A too large family would certainly have died of hunger in the winter time. The clear sober sense of the people recognized this fact, and all the farm houses of the peasants were without any appreciable injury to morality filled with unmarried servants of both sexes who were, indeed, supplied with clothes and food but who at the same time were indolent and incapable of advancement.[247-3] Where a nation's economy is rapidly advancing, there is no necessity why the most natural and when properly directed the most beneficent human impulse should be sacrificed to a higher average duration of life. But if this must be, when the distribution of the national resources is pretty nearly equal, it is not so much the number of marriages as the average fruitfulness of marriages that will diminish; that is as many persons as before may enter the married state but most of them are obliged either to postpone doing so until a later age, which places a greater interval between generation and generation, and causes the number of those living at any one time to decrease; or they cease to procreate children at an earlier period in their married life. The latter is found especially in France.[247-4] [247-5] But, on the other hand, where the distribution of the national resources is very unequal, the rich may afterwards as well as before continue to follow out their inclination to marry at as early a day and age as they wish; but the less fortunate must remain unmarried through life. Here, therefore, the average number of children to a marriage does not diminish; but the aggregate number of marriages does.[247-6] If the relative frequency of marriages in most European countries has diminished during the last century, the cause has been in part directly the long duration of life of married couples. Hence, we are not always warranted in consequence, to infer a diminished number of existing marriages.[247-7]

In many countries, it has been recently observed that the average number of persons to a family is a decreasing one. Thus for, instance, in 1840, in Holland, there were to every hundred families 497 persons, in 1850, only 481; in Saxony, in 1832, 460; in 1840, only 443; in Bavaria, in 1827, 480, in 1846, only 448. In cities also the average size of families is usually smaller than in the country.[247-8] This is intimately connected with this other fact that in the higher stages of civilization a larger number of independent households consists of single persons in contradistinction to married couples.[247-9] [247-10]

[247-1] In France there was one child born alive,

on every
In 1801-1805,30.9 living.
In 1806-1810,31.6 "
In 1811-1815,41.5 "
In 1816-1820,31.6 "
In 1821-1825,32.1 "
In 1826-1830,33.0 "
In 1831-1836,34.0 "
In 1846-1850,37.8 "
In 1851-1854,37.88 "
In 1860-1864,37.56 "

[247-2] Malthus, Principle of Population, II, ch. 1. In Denmark, at the same time, 1 in 37 and 114. (Thaarup, Dänische Statistik., II, 1, 4.)

[247-3] In modern times, the intellectual and legal conditions which existed in Norway have been loosened to a great extent, and population in that country has, in consequence, made rapid advances. In 1769 the population was only 723,000; in 1855, it was 1,490,000. But the above customs for the most part continue still. Between 1831 and 1835, there was one marriage a year for every 138 living persons. The relative number of marriages is smaller than before. In 1769, there were, in every 1,000,376 married persons; in 1801, 347; in 1825, 345; in 1835, 322. In 1805, there were only 63 illegitimate births to every 1,000 births; in 1835, the proportion was 71.5 in every 1,000. (Blom, Statistik Con N., II, 168, 173.)