No one has better opportunities of pursuing such work than horticulturists and stock breeders. They are daily witnesses of the phenomena of heredity. Their success also depends largely on a knowledge of its laws, and obviously every increase in that knowledge is of direct and special importance to them.
The want of systematic study of heredity is due chiefly to misapprehension. It is supposed that such work requires a lifetime. But though for adequate study of the complex phenomena of inheritance long periods of time must be necessary, yet in our present state of deep ignorance almost of the outline of the facts, observations carefully planned and faithfully carried out for even a few years may produce results of great value. In fact, by far the most appreciable and definite additions to our knowledge of these matters have been thus obtained.
There is besides some misapprehension as to the kind of knowledge which is especially wanted at this time, and as to the modes by which we may expect to obtain it. The present paper is written in the hope that it may in some degree help to clear the ground of these difficulties by a preliminary consideration of the question, How far have we got towards an exact knowledge of heredity, and how can we get further?
Now this is pre-eminently a subject in which we must distinguish what we can do from what we want to do. We want to know the whole truth of the matter; we want to know the physical basis, the inward and essential nature, “the causes,” as they are sometimes called, of heredity: but we want also to know the laws which the outward and visible phenomena obey.
Let us recognise from the outset that as to the essential nature of these phenomena we still know absolutely nothing. We have no glimmering of an idea as to what constitutes the essential process by which the likeness of the parent is transmitted to the offspring. We can study the processes of fertilisation and development in the finest detail which the microscope manifests to us, and we may fairly say that we have now a considerable grasp of the visible phenomena; but of the nature of the physical basis of heredity we have no conception at all. No one has yet any suggestion, working hypothesis, or mental picture that has thus far helped in the slightest degree to penetrate beyond what we see. The process is as utterly mysterious to us as a flash of lightning is to a savage. We do not know what is the essential agent in the transmission of parental characters, not even whether it is a material agent or not. Not only is our ignorance complete, but no one has the remotest idea how to set to work on that part of the problem. We are in the state in which the students of physical science were, in the period when it was open to anyone to believe that heat was a material substance or not, as he chose.
But apart from any conception of the essential modes of transmission of characters, we can study the outward facts of the transmission. Here, if our knowledge is still very vague, we are at least beginning to see how we ought to go to work. Formerly naturalists were content with the collection of numbers of isolated instances of transmission—more especially, striking and peculiar cases—the sudden appearance of highly prepotent forms, and the like. We are now passing out of that stage. It is not that the interest of particular cases has in any way diminished—for such records will always have their value—but it has become likely that general expressions will be found capable of sufficiently wide application to be justly called “laws” of heredity. That this is so was till recently due almost entirely to the work of Mr F. Galton, to whom we are indebted for the first systematic attempt to enuntiate such a law.
All laws of heredity so far propounded are of a statistical character and have been obtained by statistical methods. If we consider for a moment what is actually meant by a “law of heredity” we shall see at once why these investigations must follow statistical methods. For a “law” of heredity is simply an attempt to declare the course of heredity under given conditions. But if we attempt to predicate the course of heredity we have to deal with conditions and groups of causes wholly unknown to us, whose presence we cannot recognize, and whose magnitude we cannot estimate in any particular case. The course of heredity in particular cases therefore cannot be foreseen.
Of the many factors which determine the degree to which a given character shall be present in a given individual only one is usually known to us, namely, the degree to which that character is present in the parents. It is common knowledge that there is not that close correspondence between parent and offspring which would result were this factor the only one operating; but that, on the contrary, the resemblance between the two is only an uncertain one.
In dealing with phenomena of this class the study of single instances reveals no regularity. It is only by collection of facts in great numbers, and by statistical treatment of the mass, that any order or law can be perceived. In the case of a chemical reaction, for instance, by suitable means the conditions can be accurately reproduced, so that in every individual case we can predict with certainty that the same result will occur. But with heredity it is somewhat as it is in the case of the rainfall. No one can say how much rain will fall to-morrow in a given place, but we can predict with moderate accuracy how much will fall next year, and for a period of years a prediction can be made which accords very closely with the truth.
Similar predictions can from statistical data be made as to the duration of life and a great variety of events, the conditioning causes of which are very imperfectly understood. It is predictions of this kind that the study of heredity is beginning to make possible, and in that sense laws of heredity can be perceived.