Several questions of interest arise in regard to this evidence. This progressive Melanism has arisen in certain families only, and may be confined to certain species only, within those families. As in almost all other examples in which variation has been much observed, its incidence is capricious and specific. A collateral line of inquiry relates to the degree of discontinuity which the variation manifests. Here again there is no rule. Generally speaking, in A. betularia, to take the case most fully studied, the variation is discontinuous. Real intermediates between betularia and doubledayaria are in most localities absent or rare. The black spots of betularia may often be larger or more numerous than in the normal, but this variation has nothing to do with doubledayaria, and is not an intermediate stage towards it, though sometimes wrongly so described. Doubledayaria owes its characteristic appearance to a factor which blurs the surface of the wings with a layer of black. Sometimes this blurring is slighter than in the real doubledayaria, and these forms are real intermediates. Occasionally the fore-wings alone are thus blurred. These intermediates are clearly due to reduction-stages of the doubledayaria factor, and are related to it as a blue mouse is to a black, or a dutch rabbit to a self-colour. It cannot positively be asserted that the full doubledayaria existed before the intermediate, but it almost certainly did. In certain places as for instance in Belgium, there is evidence that intermediates have at various times been fairly abundant, but they have never become common, nor are they known to exist in the absence of doubledayaria. When the black variety and the light type breed together they do not usually have intermediates among their offspring, and the evidence is consistent with the view that the black is a complete dominant. The same is probably true of Tephrosia consonaria.
In some of the other species we know that the darkest forms did not appear first. For example in Phigalia pilosaria and Boarmia rhomboidaria dark forms existed and are believed to have increased in number before the darkest made its appearance. Hybernia progemmaria is said to have become darker gradually both in Cheshire and in the West Riding, and a uniformly smoky variety appeared in South Yorkshire less than 45 years ago which has spread to neighbouring counties. The dark medium has become the commonest form in Huddersfield district, where the very dark variety is now about 20 per cent. of the population, though the light form is still common.
Taking the evidence together we find it consistent with the view that dark forms have appeared sporadically, in some species the very dark appearing first and intermediates later, in others the moderately dark came first and the darkest later in time. It is practically certain that the change has in general come about not by a gradual change supervening on the population at large, but by the sporadic appearance of dark specimens as a new element in the population, and strains derived from these dark individuals have gradually superseded the normal type more or less completely.
If it could be shown that these melanic novelties had a definite advantage in the struggle for existence they would provide an instance of evolution proceeding much in the way which Darwin contemplated. The whole process would differ from that conceived by him as the normal method of evolution only in so far as the change has come about with great rapidity and in some instances largely by the appearance and success of discontinuous varieties. The question, however, must be asked whether the dark form can reasonably be supposed to have an advantage by reason of their darkness. Some naturalists believe that the darkness of the colours does thus definitely contribute to their protection by making the insects less conspicuous and thus more likely to escape the search of birds. In support of this view it may be pointed out that it is in the manufacturing districts of Lancashire and Yorkshire, and again in the London area that the melanics have attained their greatest development. Consistently with this argument also, it is in the neighbourhood of Crefeld and Essen, the black country of Germany, that they have chiefly established themselves on the Continent, and Phigalia pilosaria in the black form is now at home in South Wales. Thus superficially regarded, the evidence looks rather strong, but it is difficult to apply the reasoning in detail. We have first the difficulty that the black form of betularia for instance has established itself in thoroughly rural districts, notably near King's Lynn in Norfolk, and in the neighbourhood of Kendal and Windermere. The black form of consonaria and the dark consortaria appeared in a wood near Maidstone, far from town smoke, and the black rhomboidaria was first found at Norwich, which, as towns go, is clean. Then again the spread of the melanics is very irregular and unaccountable. The black pilosaria is found both in the West Riding and in the Swansea district, but not yet elsewhere. It rapidly increased at Huddersfield, but made no noticeable progress at Sheffield though recorded there for ten years. It is also a remarkable fact that no similar melanic development has been observed in America, and, so far as I am aware, comparable melanic varieties have not appeared on the European continent except in the case of the few sorts which possibly may have come from England.
The whole subject is beset with complications. It must not be forgotten that in a few species of moths there is an obvious and recognised conformity between the colours of the perfect insect and that of the soil on which they live, comparable with that which is so striking in the case of some Oedipodidae and other grasshoppers. Of this phenomenon the clearest example is Gnophos obscurata, which is a most variable species with many local forms. Of these a well-known dark variety lives on the peaty heaths of the New Forest and other districts, but on the chalk hills of Kent, Sussex and Surrey various light varieties are found, of which one is a bright silvery white, very near in colour to the colour of a chalky bank. This case does not seem to be one of direct environmental action,[23] for Poulton found no change induced by rearing larvae among either white or black surrounding objects. No one however can doubt that there is some indirect connection between the colour of the ground and that of the moths.
To my mind there is a serious objection to the theory of protective resemblance in application to such a case as that of the betularia forms, which arises from the fact that the black doubledayaria is a fairly conspicuous insect anywhere except perhaps on actually black materials, which are not common in any locality. Tree trunks and walls are dirty in smoky districts but they are not often black, and I doubt whether in the neighbourhood of Rotherham, for instance, which is one of the great melanic centres, doubledayaria can be harder for a bird to find than betularia would be. After all, too, many of the species much affected are not urban insects. They live in country places between the towns, and the general tone of these places even in Lancashire and the West Riding is not very different from that of similar places elsewhere. As against the objection that the black varieties are much blacker than the case requires it may be replied that we know nothing of the senses of birds, and that perhaps to their eyes blackness does constitute a disguise even though the surroundings are much less dark. This is undeniable, but recourse to such an argument is dangerous; for if the sight of the insect-eating birds is so dull that it does not distinguish dark things from dingy grey, we cannot subsequently regard the keen sight of birds as the sufficient control which has led to the minute and detailed resemblance of many insects to their surroundings. Those who see in such cases examples of the omnipotence of Selection must frequently find themselves in this dilemma.
Taking the evidence as a whole, we may say that it fairly suggests the existence of some connection between modern urban developments and the appearance and rise of the melanic varieties. More than that we cannot yet affirm. It is a subject in which problems open up on every side, and all of them are profitable subjects for investigation. Unhappily such animals are difficult to rear successfully in captivity for many generations, owing to their extreme liability to disease. Not the least interesting feature of the melanics is the fact that the black varieties provide about the best and clearest example of a new dominant factor attaching itself to a wild species in recent times. None of the cases are satisfactorily recorded or analysed as yet, but the evidence is clear that doubledayaria is a dominant to its type, and in several other dark varieties, though the pigment deposited is not black, the records show that the increased amount of the pigment almost certainly is due to a positive factor. Of this, Hemerophila abruptaria is a good example.[24] There are some irregularities in the results, but taken together they leave little doubt that the dark brown variety is a dominant and the light, yellowish brown a recessive.
A curious parallel to the rise of the melanic moths in England is provided by the case of the Honey-creepers or Sugar-birds, in certain West Indian islands.[25] These birds of the genus Coereba (Certhiola) range from Southern Mexico to the Northern parts of South America and through the whole chain of the West Indian islands and Bahamas except Cuba. There are numerous local forms, and many of the islands have types peculiar to themselves, as is usual in such cases. Some of the types or species range through several islands, but according to Austin Clark[26] no island has more than one of them. Cory[27] reckoned twelve such species within the Antillean region. They are small birds about the size of a nuthatch with a general colouring of black, yellow, and white. From the island of St. Vincent the Smithsonian Institution received in the late seventies of last century several completely black specimens in addition to two of the usual type of colouring. The black were described by W. N. Lawrence as atrata, and those marked with the usual yellow and white were called saccharina. The collector (Mr. F. A. Ober) reported that the black form was common, and that the saccharina form was rarer. Lawrence remarks, "Had there been only a single example (of the black form) I should have considered it as probably a case of abnormal colouring, but it seems to be a representative form of the genus in this island."[28] There is of course no doubt of the correctness of the view taken by Austin Clark that "atrata" is a black variety. The black bird is in every respect, other than colour, identical with saccharina, and it is even possible to detect a greenish colour in the areas which would normally be yellow, showing plainly enough the yellow pigment obscured by the black.
We have next the interesting fact that like our melanic moths the dark form is replacing the "type." At the time of Ober's visit the type was already in a minority, but now it is nearly or perhaps actually extinct, though the black form is one of the commonest birds on the island. Austin Clark found no specimen when he collected there in 1903-4, though formerly it was not uncommon in the vicinity of Kingston and in the immediate windward district of St. Vincent.
The Grenadines are geographically just south of St. Vincent, though separated by a deep channel. In these islands no black forms have yet been taken, but Grenada, the next island to the south, has both normals and blacks. There are trifling differences of size between the Grenada birds and those from St. Vincent, the Grenada specimens being slightly smaller and for this reason they have received distinct names, the form marked with yellow and white being called Godmani (Cory) and the black, Wellsi (Cory), but this merely introduces a useless complication. There is evidence that in Grenada, as in St. Vincent, the black is gradually ousting the original type, but the process has not gone so far as in St. Vincent. Austin Clark very properly compares this case of the Sugar-birds with that of Papilio turnus, which as is well-known, has a black female in the southern parts of its distribution, in addition to a female of the yellow type, but in the Northern States the black female does not occur.