However, since these returns involve manifest absurdities, it is hard to ground any argument upon them. Presumably, the last census is more nearly correct. It is generally admitted that the census of 1870 was grossly defective. In our judgement, both those of 1880 and especially of 1890 were far below the mark; but it would be hard to prove this rigorously. It seems that the rate from 1850 to 1860 is, on its face, the most reasonable. As the Negroes were then slaves, their numbers were very probably returned correctly by the owners. As there was no motive against and every motive for their rapid multiplication, and as their death rate was certainly much lower than after emancipation, it seems certain that 221 per thousand (say 22 per cent.) represents their maximum natural increase per decade. This would have given about 542 myriads for 1870, about 661 for 1880, about 806 for 1890, about 980 for 1900. This would indicate, then, that the census of 1880 is also nearly correct, while that of 1870 is most sadly defective, and that of 1890 seriously so. Still, this latter can hardly have erred by fifty myriads—perhaps by twenty or thirty; so that the number in 1890 should possibly be 770 myriads. In that case, the numbers since 1850 would be given, nearly enough for memory, by the hundred thousand, thus:
| 1860 | 1870 | 1880 | 1890 | 1900 | |
| 44 | 55 | 66 | 77 | 88, | instead of |
| 44 | 49 | 66 | 75 | 88 |
Of course, these numbers are not exact; but they are, on the average, more nearly so than those of the census reports given in the line below, which disprove themselves.
At any rate, the Negro numbers have been nearly doubled in forty years. This is an average rate of almost exactly 20 per cent. per decade. Since the earlier rate was certainly more than twenty, the latter must have been certainly less; in fact, even according to the census, there is a falling off from 221 to 180, and this latter figure should probably be reduced to 160. It must be reduced, unless the census of 1890 was as perfect as that of 1900, which is most unlikely. While we consider positively necessary some such amendment of the census returns as we have suggested, yet we ground no argument thereon; we rest on the certainty that the rate of increase of the Negro has fallen off at least 16 per cent. since the days of his slavery. His absolute increase has been about maintained, so that the next census (1910) will give him, perhaps, slightly under ten millions.
Meantime the total white population has advanced from 1,955 to 6,681 myriads; or, since 1860, from 2,692 to 6,681—not quite two and one-half times. But we must remember the desolating war that ravaged the North, and particularly the South, of its Caucasian bloom for four years, and left the latter utterly prostrate. This is shown in the fearful descent in gain from 377 to 248. The gain in that decade should have been about 900 instead of 667, which would have given the Whites about 8,100 myriads in 1900—almost exactly tripling the return of 1860. By natural increase, then, the white population about triples itself in forty years, while the black about doubles. Hence, the latter must form an ever-diminishing fraction of the whole population. In fact, the number of Negroes per thousand of the whole population, since 1790, is as follows:
| 1790 | 1800 | 1810 | 1820 | 1830 | 1840 | 1850 | 1860 | 1870 | 1880 | 1890 | 1900 |
| 193 | 189 | 190 | 184 | 182 | 168 | 157 | 141 | 127 | 131 | 119 | 116 |
We have seen that the estimate for 1870 is certainly much too low, as also extremely probably that for 1890. In any case, it is hereby proved that the black is rapidly falling in ratio to the white population. Such a descent, pursued for a few centuries, would bring it to comparative insignificance.
To be sure, it must not be forgotten that the White increase is due largely to immigration. But there seems to be no reason why this immigration should not be continued indefinitely; at present it is particularly heavy and will weigh very perceptibly in the census of 1910.
Again, it must not be disguised that the birth rate among the older New England stock of native white Americans has fallen lamentably low—even beneath the point of bare race maintenance. A thousand such couples rear only about 950 couples. This race decay seems, surely, the most alarming symptom in our national life—a tendency which it seems exceedingly hard to combat. However, there are yet vigorous and prolific Caucasian tribes in great abundance on the face of the earth; and if the native white American prefers to die out, why, let him die—no one can help it. The white foreigner will certainly step in and fill his place more virilely, if not more worthily. There is nothing, then, in this phenomenon, humiliating though it is, to shake the conclusions already stated.
But an even more interesting matter than the relation of the Negro to the Union at large is his relation to special sections. The grand divisions in the census reports are North Atlantic, South Atlantic, North Central, South Central, and Western. In only two of these, the South Atlantic and the South Central, is the Negro really a problem. In the others, he is a vanishing quantity. Thus, in the North Atlantic and the North Central, his myriads are only: