We can think of only one objection likely to be raised against the foregoing statistical argument. Some one may say that we have made too little use of the decade 1890-1900, but have preferred the score of years 1880-1900. It is true that the last decade (1890-1900) shows better for the Negro than the preceding (1880-90)—which, indeed, indicated his over-rapid decadence throughout the South. But it seems hardly possible that this showing should not be deceptive. For there is not a single known circumstance that favoured him in his last decade rather than in the preceding. The explanation seems very simple; the coloured returns of the eleventh census were incomplete—not nearly so incomplete as those of the ninth, yet enough so in comparison with the tenth and the twelfth to make the showing for 1880 to 1890 too bad, and for 1890 to 1900 too good. The census reports of the Black population for 1850 and 1860 seem to have been substantially correct; for 1870, extremely incomplete; for 1880, greatly better; for 1890, not nearly so good; for 1900, much better again. For 1870 this is now conceded. Thus, in Mississippi the coloured population increased from 1850 to 1860 by 126,000; from 1870 to 1880 by 206,090; but from 1860 to 1870 by only 6,797 (impossible!). In Kentucky it actually lost (1860-70) 13,957, but gained (1870-80) 49,241; and once more lost (1880-90) 3,380. So, in South Carolina, the Negro gain was (1870-80) nearly 190,000, but (1860-70) only 3,500. So, in Missouri, a gain of 28,463 (1850-60) and of 27,279 (1870-80), but (1860-70) a loss of 432.
The indications of imperfection in the census of 1890 seem clear, though not so glaring as in that of 1870. Such, for instance, are the actual decreases in the Negro population of Kentucky and Missouri, and the extremely small gains (1880-90) of 5,500 (Maryland), 5,000 (Missouri), 4,000 (Virginia), against gains (1890-1900) of 19,500 (Maryland), 11,000 (Missouri), 25,000 (Virginia). Other imperfections, not so glaring, but quite as unmistakable, a careful eye may detect only too frequently. Thus, consider the following returns per 1,000,000 for the census years—
| 1860 | 1870 | 1880 | 1890 | |
| Insane | 765 | 971 | 1,833 | 1,697 |
| Feeble-minded | 602 | 636 | 1,533 | 1,526 |
| Deaf and Dumb | 408 | 420 | 675 | 659 |
| Blind | 403 | 527 | 976 | 805 |
In all these classes a steady increase up to 1880, then a sudden falling off in 1890.
Once more, the death rate in the non-registration area in 1880 was 13.42 per thousand; in 1880 it was only 10.79. Such an improvement in health, especially in districts mainly rural, is quite incredible. The fact is that for many purposes of comparison the eleventh census is unavailable—a fact that greatly strengthens many of our contentions.
On its face, it is quite too improbable that the Blacks should gain only 138 per thousand in the decennium 1880-90 and then, without any assignable cause, leap to 180 per thousand for the next decennium (1890-1900). Only two things could bring this about—increase of birth rate, decrease of death rate. The former is quite inexplicable and incredible; the latter is contradicted by the facts of the case. It would mean a fall of four in the annual mortality per thousand, and there has been nothing of the kind.
The defect in enumeration, certainly so great in 1870 and almost certainly present in less degree in 1890, is very easy to understand and antecedently probable. For the prejudice against "numbering the people" has been strong since the days of David and of Judas of Galilee, and the Negro flees from the census-taker as from a tax-gatherer, or vaccinator, or even a kodak fiend.
Be this as it may, it is generally admitted that, in all arguments from statistics, the larger the numbers and the longer the space of time, the more trustworthy the indications; in any case then we are more than justified in taking the double decennium (1880-1900) in comparison with the first decade (1850-60); since the census of 1870 is admittedly grossly in error, no other basis of comparison nearly so trustworthy is present.
Herewith then we close the argument. It seems hardly necessary to add that the higher percentage of Negro gain in the North Atlantic and North Central States signifies nothing except that small numbers have been greatly swollen by immigration. It is well known that in these regions the Negro, unfed by immigration, tends swiftly to extinction. Viewed thus from what point of the compass you will, the general movement of the life of the continent is towards the elimination of the African element. We admit that figures may be made to lie, but we have subjected them to no captious cross-examination; we have let them speak for themselves; we have neither forcibly repressed nor forcibly extorted any testimony; their voluntary witness is singularly consistent and unequivocal and wholly irresistible.
ANTHROPOMETRY