| 1880 | 1890 | 1900 | ||
| Under 1 year | N.W. | 33 | 30 | 30 |
| N. | 34 | 23 | 28 | |
| From 1 to 4 years | N.W. | 123 | 112 | 110 |
| N. | 131 | 111 | 109 | |
| From 5 to 9 years | N.W. | 144 | 136 | 133 |
| N. | 154 | 145 | 136 | |
| Total under 10 years | N.W. | 300 | 278 | 273 |
| N. | 319 | 284 | 273 |
Here the situation is revealed with great clearness. We see that both in White and in Black the race is aging; extreme youth is becoming less and less conspicuous. But the diversities are broadly marked. In babes, the Blacks fall behind by two per thousand of their total; in children from one to four years, they again fall behind, but only one per thousand; in children from five to nine they excel by three per thousand; in the grand total of children under ten, they exactly equal the native Whites. This record of itself clearly indicates a failing fecundity in the Blacks; the younger, the fewer, comparatively.
Still more clearly is this seen, on comparing the earlier record of 1880. Then the Black youth surpassed the White relatively at all ages—by one, by eight, by ten, and in the grand total by nineteen. All this superiority has been lost in twenty years. It seems hard to imagine a more impressive record. High mortality among infants will not explain this, especially it will not explain the loss in the score of years, nor the relative scarcity of the very young. [ [39] ]
But another fact is illuminative. The chief statistician, William C. Hunt, remarks (Population, Part II., p. lviii.): "The decrease in the relative proportion of children among the negro element is due for the most part to the greater infant mortality of the negro race as compared with the native white population, although it may be due in part to the decrease in the proportion of negro women who are or have been married, for each age-group except that from 15 to 19 years, as shown by the statistics of conjugal condition for 1890 and 1900." We have just observed that the first explanation does not explain. "Greater infant mortality" might cause a smaller "relative proportion of children among the Negro element," both in 1880 and in 1900; but it could not cause a "decrease in the relative proportion" from 1890 to 1900, unless that mortality was not only great, but actually becoming greater. But such is not the fact; if it were, it would mean ruin to the Negro race. On the contrary, it is precisely in these years of infancy that the mortality has been reduced. Nor could even a huge mortality, extending up to the tenth year, of itself bring about the relatively small number of babes under one year. It is the second fact, which we have italicized, that throws light on the situation. Except very young girls, whose marriages are largely transient or nominal, the Negro women are beginning to shun marriage. This is a part of the general moral and social declension, which no unbiased observer of the race can fail to notice. Here are the numbers per thousand, male and female, of the single and married and widowed, of those over fifteen years of age, in 1890 and 1900:
| 1900 | 1890 | 1900 | 1890 | |||||
| Single | (M) | 392 | 398 | Single | (F) | 299 | 300 | |
| Married | (M) | 540 | 555 | Married | (F) | 537 | 546 | |
| Widowed | (M) | 58 | 43 | Widowed | (F) | 154 | 147 | |
| And for native Whites: | ||||||||
| Single | (M) | 397 | 401 | Single | (F) | 310 | 306 | |
| Married | (M) | 549 | 554 | Married | (F) | 577 | 582 | |
| Widowed | (M) | 45 | 40 | Widowed | (F) | 106 | 107 | |
The fall from 546 to 537 is not large—only 9; but it must be increased by the increase 7 of those returning themselves as "widows," of which the number, 154, is excessive, and by the excess (3) of divorcees, making altogether an increase of about 2 per cent. of the female population, who decline to produce their kind legitimately. It is impossible to interpret this otherwise than as a sign of moral and social deterioration, which Nature cannot fail to punish promptly by a diminishing birth rate.
It is also seen that the White ratio of the married women has fallen slightly, from 582 to 577—about half as fast as the Black, the number of the single increasing from 306 to 310. Undoubtedly, the growing determination of the White woman to be a man—to compete with a man in all forms of activity—has sensibly reduced the marriage rate, and therewith the birth rate of the Caucasian, and will yet further reduce it—a result we must deplore; but there is here no sign of deterioration, as in case of the Black woman. In her case it is attested freely by the more respectable Negroes themselves. Ask such a one to recommend some "nice coloured girl" as a domestic, and she will probably reply frankly that she knows of none, that they are altogether become unprofitable, that they are scandalously and outrageously unchaste, that there is none that doeth good—no, not one. At this point we speak from personal knowledge. In such statements, there is no doubt considerable exaggeration; but they are largely and increasingly correct. Even Professor Dubois, the ablest of Afro-Americans, confesses that about one-fifth of the Negro families belong to the lowest class—"below the line of respectability, living in loose sexual relationship," and so on. "Laziness and promiscuous sexual intercourse are their besetting sins." He is reporting on the Negroes of Farmville, Va. (Department of Labour Bulletin, January, 1898, p. 37.)
Much somberer colours must be used in depicting the conditions in larger towns. He found about 15 per cent. belonging to the higher class—a percentage that wider investigation would hardly maintain. In another connection the same stern prophet declares: "Unless we conquer our present vices, they will conquer us. We are diseased; we are developing criminal tendencies, and an alarmingly large percentage of our men and women are sexually impure."
Entirely confirmatory of our contentions are the results of the intensive studies of Professor Dubois. Thus he finds that the average Negro family in Philadelphia numbers 3.18, but little more than one child to the couple. The Mongrel record is even worse. Of thirty-three families (four White husbands, twenty-nine White wives), the average size was 2.9; there seem to have been thirty-five children in all. This painstaking sociologist admits: (1) "That a tendency to much later marriage than under the slave system is revolutionizing the Negro family and incidentally leading to much irregularity." (2) "There is, nevertheless, still the temptation for young men and women under forty to enter into matrimony before their economical condition warrants it." (3) "Among persons over forty, there is a marked tendency towards single life." (4) "The very large number of widowed and separated points to grave physical, economical, and moral disorder" (op. cit., p. 70).
Among college-bred Negroes, presumably by far the best class, Dubois finds 491 couples represented by 1,081 children, of whom 877 survive, 982 by 887. This number may yet be increased somewhat by more births; but it will also be decreased by deaths of the young, so that the total of the next propagative generation will very improbably reach the number of the parents, 982.