Piebald rats and selection

by William E. Castle; John C. Phillips

Returning to the examination of Table 1, since the high-grade parents produce higher-grade offspring than do the low-grade parents, it is evident that we might hope by further selection either to isolate a pure line of high-grade rats which would be free from regression and therefore stable, or else to advance the grade of the offspring still higher, even though regression persists. As a measure of the extent to which high-grade parents have high-grade offspring and vice versa, in each generation, we may employ the well-known correlation coefficient. This for Table 1 is 0.30.

The second generation in the plus series ([Table 2]) includes the offspring of parents which appear as offspring of the higher grades in Table 1, together with a few individuals which appear in Table 2 both as offspring and as parents of other offspring, by reason of their having been mated with generation 1 individuals and so having produced generation 1½ offspring, as explained on [page 8]. To obtain larger numbers of offspring, several new pairs were added to the experiment in this generation, which do not appear in Table 1 either as offspring or as parents, but which were derived from the same general stock as the parents of generation 1. Their inclusion here accounts for the very low range of the offspring in Table 2, which extends from -1.00 to +3.75. The parents’ range (means of pairs) extends from 2.00 to 3.12. The grand average of the parents is 2.52, that of the offspring is 1.92. The correlation between grade of parents and grade of offspring is 0.32.

From this point on in the series no new stock was added and each generation of offspring furnished the parents for the following generation, except for the slight overlapping of generations when parents of different generations were mated with each other, as has already been explained.

In generation 3, [Table 3], the parents ranged from 2.12 to 3.37 in grade, the offspring from 0.75 to 4.00. The mean of the parents was 2.73, that of the offspring 2.51. The degree of correlation between parents and offspring is expressed by the coefficient 0.33 (a perfect correlation would give 1.00).

In generation 4, [Table 4], the selection of parents became considerably more rigid; most of the parental pairs were of grade 3 or higher, their average being 3.09. The average grade of the offspring was 2.73, their range extending from 0.75 to 3.75. The correlation in this generation fell very low, to 0.07, not because of a lessened regression but rather because of a very high regression on the part of the offspring of high-grade parents.

In generation 5, [Table 5], the grade of the selected parents ranged from 2.75 to 4.12, its mean being 3.33. The offspring, showing the usual regression, ranged from 0.75 to 4.25, their mean grade being 2.90. The correlation between parents and offspring in this generation was 0.16. The number of individuals comprising this generation of offspring was 610.

It is scarcely necessary to discuss separately the correlation table for each of the next eight generations, Tables [6 to 13]. The number of offspring rises to a maximum (1,408) in generation 8, [Table 8]; then declines to less than 200 in generation 13. But as this generation and the preceding one are still being produced, it is probable that the number recorded will be considerably increased before the generation is complete. The means of parents and offspring and the other statistical constants for the several generations can be most easily compared by reference to [Table 14]. Leaving out of consideration the exceptional generation, 2, the following will be observed:

(1) The mean of the selected parents has steadily advanced throughout the series, as has also that of their offspring.

(2) The variability (standard deviation) of the parents as a group has decreased somewhat as increase in numbers made a more rigid selection possible; that of the offspring has undergone a similar change.

(3) The correlation between parents and offspring has not materially changed. The average of the correlation coefficients for the entire series is 0.194, for the last three generations it is 0.175, for the three preceding generations it is 0.141, for the three which precede those it is 0.185, while for the first four generations it is 0.253. In every case the correlation is positive—that is, the higher-grade parents have higher-grade offspring and vice versa.