The continual extension of German enterprise in the Ottoman Empire makes the reform of abuses more difficult and the position of the Sultan more secure. If Germany will cultivate his good will to obtain concessions, their possession will make it necessary for Germany to protect them. The invasion of Turkey by a foreign army, the disturbance of commerce and industrial conditions, would be a serious danger to German investments already there, and the longer such interference is postponed the more serious that danger will be, because those investments are rapidly multiplying and gaining in importance. The peace of Turkey and the maintenance of present conditions are essential to their profit. Thus the Kaiser stands as the nurse of the Sick Man of the East.
There are few German investments in European Turkey, because the anarchy which has prevailed there for many years has kept capital and immigrants away; but throughout the other Balkan States German enterprise is taking the lead in every line of trade and industry, and pushing the sales of German goods. In Asia Minor, Armenia, Syria, Palestine and other parts of Turkey, the Germans are already numerous and are increasing. They have greater privileges and better advantages than any other class. The significance and value of the Kaiser’s friendship for the Sultan is appreciated, not only by the officials, but by the public at large, and for that reason Germans are exempt from many, if not all, of the annoyances suffered by other foreigners.
It is useless to speculate as to what might happen if the friendship of the German Emperor for Abdul Hamid were withdrawn. History teaches that political problems in Turkey cannot be solved by the same rules that apply to other countries. The Sultan and his ministers are not to be considered as logical or rational beings. The extraordinary skill which they have displayed in eluding the frequent crises that have occurred in recent years, offers no ground upon which to base a prediction, but the Germans are not to be involved in any ordinary complication. The latest episode was the seizure of the island of Mitylene by a French fleet to enforce the payment of money due French contractors who built the docks at Salonika. The Sultan appealed to the Kaiser to extend his good offices in arranging an amicable settlement, and the German Minister of Foreign Relations advised the Turkish ambassador at Berlin to pay the bill. The bill was not paid, but a mortgage upon the future receipts of a Turkish custom house was given instead, and the French fleet withdrew; but when the mortgage falls due, two years hence, it will be necessary to send another fleet to collect it, for the Sultan never keeps his promises nor pays his bills until he is compelled to. The Kaiser is too shrewd to become involved in such a scandal; but if the French go so far as to interfere with German interests in Turkey or the Balkan States, they will undoubtedly meet with resistance.
The desperate state of affairs in Macedonia, or Eastern Rumelia, as that province is named on the map, is attracting no marked attention in Europe. This apathy, however, cannot long continue, for sooner or later some nation, whether from humanity or selfishness, will interfere and provoke hostilities in which all the Powers of Europe must become engaged. The seeds and causes of conflict are there, and cannot be exterminated without a struggle. The Austrians could do more than any other nation were they permitted to make the attempt. They have already demonstrated in Bosnia their ability to regenerate and govern a mongrel population, but the ambition and purpose of Russia, ever since the Romanoff dynasty came into power, has been to make Constantinople its southern capital, and add the Ottoman Empire to its own.
In Bulgaria, Servia and Roumania, disorganization and decay are advancing more rapidly than the elements of progress. These nations are becoming poorer and weaker because of misgovernment for which there is no hope of reform. Before many years their condition will have reached a crisis that will call for intervention. Russian influence is now supreme in Roumania and Bulgaria, and the Servians are willing to submit to Russian domination under certain contingencies; but Austria lies just across the Danube, and, as the nearest neighbor, takes a deep interest in Servian affairs.
It is probable that trouble will ultimately arise through collisions between the Bulgarian patriots and the Turkish troops in Macedonia. They occur frequently. Scarcely a month passes without a skirmish upon the border between brigands, as they are usually called, and Turkish military guards. Bulgarian citizens are being arrested continually and imprisoned in Turkish jails, and the Bulgarian government is always making useless protests to the authorities at Constantinople. The fact that Bulgaria is nominally under a Turkish protectorate complicates matters and gives an additional excuse for hostilities on the Turkish side, for the tribute which was agreed upon at the Berlin Conference has never been paid, and never will be. Even if there were a disposition on the part of the Bulgarians to comply with this stipulation, it would be difficult for them to raise the funds; thus the debt continues to pile up year after year, until Turkey, when the Sultan considers it wise to act, will make a demand and call upon the Powers to enforce it.
The casus belli is always on the side of the Turk. Bulgarians are continually invading Turkish territory, and it is the policy of the Sultan to shoot them when his soldiers can catch them, and say nothing about it. If Bulgaria makes a complaint, it is claimed that the dead men were brigands, caught with arms in their hands, and that the government is trying to suppress brigandage. Some day, however, the Bulgarian people will not be satisfied with this answer. They will insist that their government demand reparation from Turkey, and make a hostile demonstration that shall attract the attention of Europe. If Turkey “calls the bluff,” and sends her troops over the border, Bulgaria will appeal to the Powers for protection, and thus force the Macedonian cause upon their notice. This would have occurred long ago but for the inability of Bulgaria to raise funds to equip and pay her army, the indifference of Prince Ferdinand and the lack of leadership. The influence of Russia is against radical measures also, because she does not think the time is ripe. If Stambouloff had lived, the situation in Bulgaria might have been very different from what it is to-day. His death removed the chief obstacle to Russian domination and left Bulgaria a mere pawn in the great game of diplomacy which the Czar is now playing with the other sovereigns of Europe.
An American gentleman who has spent his life in Turkey, and is familiar with the situation throughout the country, describes it as follows: “The state of the Turkish Empire—morally, socially, financially and politically—betokens the coming of a night of anguish. In every department of government the amount of shameless iniquity is appalling. Simony and bribery, treachery and extortion, always present, but once wont to hide themselves, have lost all shame and fear of rebuke, and are hideous in their ramifications. Socially the situation everywhere is dismal. You read of riots and bloodshed in Albania, in Montenegro, along the frontiers of Bulgaria, and more recent outrages and bloodshed in Armenia. Things are not quite so bad in Syria, though they are on the way to it. During the past four years emissaries from Constantinople of a certain type have sown seeds of bitterness among the Moslems and Christians until their relations to each other are marked with unusual hostility, suspicion and open bloodshed. Even in Beirut, one of the most peaceful and progressive communities in the empire, an active vendetta is in progress and almost nightly men are murdered. No one is punished, no one’s life is safe. It would seem as though the very foundations of the social fabric had fallen.
“I can give you in brief the reasons why this awful state of affairs will continue: The corruption of the courts, in which all crimes are condoned for money. The sole ambition of the unpaid officials, after the collection of the exorbitant taxes, is to get a hold upon citizens of every degree and by means of charges, false or true, extort money from them. I have lived in Turkey more than eighteen years, and have yet to hear the innocence or guilt of a prisoner or criminal dwelt upon. The officials apparently exult in the increase of crime, caring only for the bribes and gifts resulting therefrom, while the wretched people caught seek only for a way by which they can get free from the clutches of these minions of the law. No one ever places any moral weight on the judgments delivered, for in ninety-nine cases out of a hundred they are worse than worthless. I am measuring my words and know whereof I speak.
“The second fruitful cause is the centralization of absolute power in Constantinople and the treacherous subversion of every vestige of civil rights ever enjoyed by the people. The present Sultan, years ago, instituted a policy by which he was to become the absolute master of everything in the empire. The military establishment, in its six great divisions, takes its orders direct from Abdul Hamid. Civil affairs are supposed to be administered through the vilayets (some thirty-five in all). In former times the chief officials, civil and military, were almost absolute in their departments and are still so in theory. But in recent years the Sultan, by an invidious system of imperial irades or edicts, has filched away every privilege and prerogative of these provincial officials. Constantinople has become a huge auction-market where every position in the empire is bought or sold for a price. Worse than this is the ominous fact that the high provincial officials, who once had the power to punish or remove a disobedient or unworthy subordinate, are now powerless to effect any reform. When an official falls under their displeasure or judgment, the matter must be referred to Constantinople. The delinquent hurries off to the capital and returns with an imperial rescript in his hand, confirming him in his position and enabling him to defy courts and judgments, officials and public opinion. By this process the Sultan has insidiously undermined and completely overthrown the legitimate form of government and replaced it by a set of spies, iniquitous and despicable beyond description. The despotic master and the irresponsible clique which has displaced the real government, have now extended their abominable practices and travesty of justice to the ends of the empire. As a result good men are disheartened and are leaving the empire by thousands. Everyone who ever expressed dissatisfaction with the present régime or sighs for reform or change for the better is instantly branded as one of the Young Turkish party and treated as a felon. So the empire has fallen into the hands of the worst elements—parasites and sycophants who are mocking and baffling one another in every department, while the common people are trampled under foot.