That this was the prevailing opinion of the country for many years there can be no doubt to the student of South African history, but with the development of the territory by the Germans opinion has undergone a radical change, and it is now recognised that South-West Africa is a valuable mineral and agricultural country.

What is the future of the country to be under British rule? Herr Dernburg had no doubt what it would be under German rule. He regarded it as the most promising of the German overseas possessions, and saw in it a “potential Argentina or Canada,” and anticipated the day when the “tide of immigration will turn thither from the channels which in the past depleted the home country, without helping towards the consolidation of a new Germany abroad,” and he points to the day when “3,000,000 cattle and 10,000,000 sheep will pasture upon its vast inland prairies.” But according to his critics Herr Dernburg was a colonial enthusiast who “juggled with millions and balanced himself with percentages.” One has more than a suspicion that he was in the habit of holding out to his countrymen brilliant pictures of a prosperous colonial empire in the effort to keep warm the colonial breast. His favourite story is “of a box of dates that was lost several years ago on the way, and now offers to the sight of the wandering traveller date palms 10 feet high bearing fruit.”

Dr. Karl Peters, on the other hand, roundly affirms that South-West Africa “does not equal the poorest part of South Africa.” But while Herr Dernburg is probably guilty of over-adulation, Dr. Karl Peters is certainly at the opposite extreme of undue depreciation. South-West Africa is not a land of milk and honey; and there is no immediate prospect that it will become a Canada or a second edition of the Rand. The many German Commissioners who have carefully investigated the natural conditions of the colony have held out no brilliant hopes of a colonial Atlanta; they have simply described a possible land of settlement in which some thousands of white settlers may live in health and comparative prosperity, and this is an eminently reasonable view of the country.

The three great natural sources of wealth in the country are: minerals, pasture land, and agricultural land.

The mineral wealth is the most considerable source of prosperity, and is likely to exercise a most important influence on the immediate future of the colony. The diamond fields will not be exhausted, perhaps, for another twenty years; and should there be a considerable restriction of the output on resuming operations, as is likely, the fields may be a source of wealth for a much longer period. Development work in the existing copper mines has greatly improved the prospects of the mining companies, since the continuity of the ore to greater depths has been definitely proved. It has also been ascertained that the copper ores in the Otavi Valley belong to the same formation as the rich Tsumeb occurrence, and there is reason to hope that the Otavi Valley mines will prove payable to greater depths and that fresh mines may be opened up between the Otavi Valley and Tsumeb. The Khan mine, which is now connected to the Otavi railway by a branch line, has lately been equipped with up-to-date machinery, including a powerful concentration plant, and this mine is certain to be a factor of importance in the industry. Other discoveries go to show that for many years to come South-West Africa will export copper in large quantities.

“The copper-bearing ‘quartz mica diorite’ of O’okiep (Little Namaqualand) has not yet been discovered,” says Dr. Versfeld, who has made a close study of the geology of Southern Namaqualand, “but the possibilities are very much in favour of this rock being found.”

Increase in the tin and marble production may be anticipated, while the galena and wolfram deposits in the area of the South African Territories Company, and the iron ore deposits in Kaokoland, still await development. Mica will probably be a payable proposition in Southern Namaqualand before long. Hopes are entertained by prospectors that gold will be found in payable quantities, but a dearth of capital and official restrictions have prevented the thorough investigation of many promising deposits. Dr. Versfeld is of the opinion that it is not likely that gold will be found in the primary formation in Great Namaqualand, as he had examined numerous quartz reefs and conglomerates and found them particularly poor in that metal, but, he writes, “there is every possibility of valuable deposits of minerals being discovered, particularly in the Great and Little Karas Mountains, which are the contact zones between intrusive plutonic and volcanic rocks and sedimentary rocks.”[20] The possibility of finding coal, however, seems to grow more remote, though the formation of the country is analogous to that of the Cape Province.

The concessions system does not seem to have been the success it was anticipated to be, since of the eight companies with an original total capital of about £4,300,000, six companies appear to have spent about £400,000, half of which represented a loss from which no benefit accrued to the colony. With an efficient and sympathetic administration capital should be attracted to the country; a rich mineral treasure house may then be unlocked. There are vast areas in Ovamboland which have not even been prospected in the most cursory fashion.

Dr. Paul Rohrbach, the Imperial Emigration Commissioner, in “Die Deutschen Kolonien” (1914), expects much from the mineral wealth of the country. With only the diamond fields and the copper mines of Otavi and Tsumeb in operation, he finds the prospect distinctly encouraging, and in the likely event of other large deposits of valuable minerals being discovered, he anticipates that a strong development would set in. Even if no extraordinary discoveries are made he is convinced that the total value of the imports will be easily doubled in the course of the next decade.

Herr Grotefeld, in “Unser Kolonialwesen,” describes the trackless wildernesses of sand in the coastal regions, and the desolate nature of some parts of the country, but he states that the colony will be able to support a large mining population, and he admits that the mountains are “rich mineral treasure houses.”