The mean of all the seven estimates put forward above, as approximations only, is about 50,000, which is probably below rather than above the actual number in normal times. The estimates differ so widely, however, as to shake one's faith in the possibility of arriving at a safe figure except by a special census on even more comprehensive lines than those which underlay the Home Office enumerations up to 1868.
But even when the casual wards, model lodging-houses, shelters, and other resorts of the roaming poor have been enumerated, the full extent of the vagrant population is not told.
According to a statement made by the Prison Commissioners to the Vagrancy Committee, 3,736 out of 12,369 convicted male prisoners on February 28, 1905, were, in the opinion of the prison governors, "persons with no fixed place of abode and no regular means of subsistence"; and of 2,595 convicted female prisoners, 372 answered the same description. In other words, one-fourth of the prison population belonged at that date to the vagrant and loafing class.
The prosecutions in England and Wales for vagrancy offences in the narrower sense—begging, sleeping out, misbehaviour by paupers, and theft or destruction of workhouse clothes—fluctuated as follows during the ten years 1898-1907:—
| Year. | Begging. | Sleeping-out. | Misdemeanour by Paupers. | Theft or Destruction of Workhouse Clothes. | ||||
| 1898 | 15,474 | 9,582 | 3,769 | 589 | ||||
| 1899 | 12,659 | 8,515 | 3,632 | 615 | ||||
| 1900 | 11,339 | 7,452 | 3,717 | 457 | ||||
| 1901 | 14,492 | 9,101 | 5,118 | 576 | ||||
| 1902 | 16,184 | 9,598 | 5,959 | 726 | ||||
| 1903 | 19,283 | 10,349 | 6,496 | 841 | ||||
| 1904 | 23,036 | 11,785 | 7,436 | 937 | ||||
| 1905 | 26,386 | 12,636 | 6,314 | 1,005 | ||||
| 1906 | 25,083 | 11,540 | 5,176 | 1,016 | ||||
| 1907 | 23,023 | 11,164 | 4,633 | 852 | ||||
At whatever figure we place the vagrant population, there is little doubt that the number tends to increase. The Vagrancy Committee frankly accept this view.
"The army of vagrants has increased in number of late years," they state, "and there is reason to fear that it will continue to increase if things are left as they are. It is mainly composed of those who deliberately avoid any work, and depend for their existence on almsgiving and the casual wards; and for their benefit the industrious portion of the community is heavily taxed. We are convinced that the present system of treating casual paupers neither deters the vagrant nor affords any means of reclaiming him, and we are unanimously of opinion that a thorough reform is necessary."[10]
As to the class of men who frequent the casual wards the great mass, both in town and country, are unquestionably unskilled labourers, though nearly all trades contribute a share, larger or smaller, to the sum total of vagrancy. A classification of the men relieved in the casual wards of Hitchin and Brixworth during twelve months ending September, 1906, showed the following result:—[11]
| Occupations. | Hitchin. | Brixworth. | ||
| Labourers | 3,830 | 222 | ||
| Painters | 226 | 14 | ||
| Grooms | 157 | 12 | ||
| Bricklayers | 144 | 13 | ||
| Shoemakers | 133 | 13 | ||
| Fitters | 123 | 9 | ||
| Rivetters | 123 | — | ||
| Boilermakers | 123 | — | ||
| Tailors | 108 | 5 | ||
| Carpenters and joiners | 106 | 9 | ||
| Printers and compositors | 74 | — | ||
| Stokers, firemen, etc. | 70 | 3 | ||
| Seamen | 60 | 4 | ||
| Moudlers and drillers | 58 | — | ||
| Gardeners | 37 | — | ||
| Clerks | 36 | — | ||
| Engineers | 34 | — | ||
| Bakers | 33 | — | ||
| Harnessmakers and saddlers | 31 | — | ||
| Porters | 27 | — | ||
| Blacksmiths, etc. | 25 | — | ||
| Sawyers | 25 | — | ||
| Plasterers | 24 | — | ||
| Plasterers | 22 | — | ||
| Silversmiths | — | 3 | ||
| Other trades | 446 | 16 | ||
| Total | 5,829 | 322 | ||