To which the Goncourt brothers added the postscript: “To all of this we raised no objection. But we have the feeling that when this time comes to science, God with His white beard will come down to earth, swinging a bunch of keys, and will say to humanity, the way they say at five o’clock at the salon: ‘Closing time, gentlemen!’”
II
THE REAL SECRET OF THE HYDROGEN BOMB
Can the hydrogen bomb actually be made? If so, how soon? How much will it cost in money and vital materials? Above all, will it, if made, add enough to our security to make the effort worth while?
As was pointed out by Prof. Robert F. Bacher of the California Institute of Technology, one of the chief architects of the wartime atomic bomb and the first scientific member of the Atomic Energy Commission, “since the President has directed the AEC to continue with the development [‘of the so-called hydrogen, or super bomb’] we can assume that this development is regarded as both possible and feasible.” Many eminent physicists believe that it can be made, and the use by the President of the word “continue” suggests that this belief is based on more than theory. No less an authority than Albert Einstein has stated publicly that he regards the H-bomb as “a probably attainable goal.”
On the other hand, there are scientists of high eminence, such as Dr. Robert A. Millikan, our oldest living Nobel-Prize-winner in physics, who doubt whether the H-bomb can be made at all. And there are also those who express the view that, while it probably could be made, it would not offer advantages great enough, if any, to justify the cost in vital strategic materials necessary for our security.
Fortunately, facts mostly buried in technical literature make it possible for us to go behind the scientific curtain and look intimately at the reasons for these differences in opinion. More important still, these facts not only provide us with a clearer picture of the nature of the problem but also enable us to make some reasonable deductions or speculations. The scientists directly involved do not feel free to discuss these matters openly, not because they would be violating security, but because of the jittery atmosphere that acts as a damper on open discussion even of subjects known to be non-secret.
We already know that the so-called hydrogen bomb, if it is to be made at all, cannot be made of the abundant common hydrogen of atomic mass one, and that there are only two possible materials that could be used for such a purpose: deuterium, a hydrogen twin twice the weight of common hydrogen, which constitutes two hundredths of one per cent of the hydrogen in all waters; and a man-made variety of hydrogen, three times the weight of the lightest variety, known as tritium. We also know that to explode either deuterium or tritium (also known, respectively, as heavy and superheavy hydrogen) a temperature measured in millions of degrees is required. This is attainable on earth only in the explosion of an A-bomb, and therefore the A-bomb would have to serve as the fuse to set off an explosion of deuterium, tritium, or a mixture of the two.
These facts, fundamental as they are, merely give us a general idea of the conditions required to make the H-bomb. All concerned, including Dr. Millikan, fully accept the validity of these facts. But there is one other factor at the very heart of the problem—the extremely short time at our disposal in which to kindle the hydrogen bomb with the A-bomb match. According to statements attributed to him in the press, Dr. Millikan believes that the time is too short; in other words, he seems to be convinced that the A-bomb match will be blown out before we have time to light the fire. Those of opposite view believe that methods can be devised for “shielding the match against the wind” for just long enough to light the fire. As we shall presently see, it is these methods for shielding the match that lead some to doubt whether the game would be worth the candle, or the match, if you will. These honest doubts are based on the possibility that, even if successful, the shielding might exact too high a price in terms of vital materials, particularly the stuff out of which A-bombs are made—plutonium. According to this view, we may at best be getting but a very small return for our investment in materials vitally important in war as well as in peace. Even though the price in dollars were to be brought down to a negligible amount.
A closer look at the details of the problem may enable us to penetrate the thick fog that now envelops the subject. We may begin with a quotation from Dr. Bacher, who outlined the principle involved with remarkable clarity. “The real problem in developing and constructing a hydrogen bomb,” he said in a notable address before the Los Angeles Town Hall,
is, “How do you get it going?” The heavy hydrogens, deuterium and tritium, are suitable substances if somehow they could be heated hot enough and kept hot. This problem is a little bit like the job of making a fire at 20 degrees below zero in the mountains with green wood which is covered with ice and with very little kindling. Today, scientists tell us that such a fire can probably be kindled.