Thus we see the process of subsidence, with alternations from year to year, with the reduction of two-thirds, from 66,866 in the former to 23,376 in the latter series of years.
It will be said, of course, that vaccination was introduced into Sweden in 1801. True, but the introduction of vaccination was one thing, and its diffusion over the nation another. It was a section of the people least likely to be affected with smallpox who welcomed and practised vaccination; and however energetic and successful they might be in their promotion of the new rite, their efforts were limited to thousands among millions. All the while smallpox was declining, and they took the decline for encouragement, and began to cry out, “See! see what we are doing!” The enactment of compulsory and gratuitous vaccination in 1816 was an open confession that the lower classes remained to be dealt with, that is to say, the very people among whom smallpox had its stronghold. There are tribes whose priests profess to bring rain, and drive away sickness with their enchantments; but if showers had begun to descend, and the sick to recover, ere their assistance was invoked, it would be hard to convince even the credulous that the desired relief was due to their subsequent magic. But it is precisely in the subsequent magic of the vaccinators that we are asked to believe when told that vaccination drove smallpox out of Sweden. It was going out before vaccination was called in, and kept going out all the same when the vaccinators plied their enchantments. Happily, patient Nature holds her way unprovoked by human quackeries. Not even to confute impostors does she reverse for an instant her impartial operations.
But, although deaths from smallpox fell off so rapidly, there was no correspondent improvement in the public health. Smallpox was merely replaced by other forms of disease. Thus, the death-rate of Sweden per 1,000 for seventy years, stands as follows—
| Decade. | Deaths. | Decade. | Deaths. | |
| 1749-1758 | 27·76 | 1789-1798 | 25·56 | |
| 1759-1768 | 27·38 | 1799-1808 | 26·46 | |
| 1769-1778 | 29·22 | 1809-1818 | 27·63 | |
| 1779-1788 | 26·52 |
Moreover, smallpox mortality, whilst rapidly decreasing before the enactment of compulsory vaccination, has since been slowly increasing. Thus—
| Years before Compulsion. | Average annual smallpox mortality. | Years after Compulsion. | Average annual smallpox mortality. | |
| 1756-1775 | 5,480 | 1816-1835 | 450 | |
| 1776-1795 | 4,617 | 1836-1855 | 577 | |
| 1796-1815 | 2,303 | 1856-1875 | 1,031 |
We therefore see that while Jenner and his friends were boasting of their achievements in Sweden, they had to account for the fall in smallpox before their intervention, and for its continued decline ere their intervention was operative; and, moreover, to answer the question, What is the profit of salvation from smallpox if death ensue from other causes? It is, however, to be observed that such large considerations were outside the scope of Jenner’s intelligence. There was smallpox, and there was vaccination, his invention, the infallible preventive of smallpox, and he saw nothing beyond. His self-love was implicated in the defence of vaccination, and any story in its favour was accepted as true, and proclaimed abroad, whilst anything to its discredit was resented as a personal affront, or denounced as wilful and diabolic falsehood. As for statistics, he had no capacity. Baron says, “Neither Dr. Jenner’s previous education nor his habits gave him a relish for any of the branches of pure science; and he seemed to have a peculiar horror of arithmetical questions, and was often jocular on this defect in his nature.”[263] This inability to calculate goes far to account for the absurdity of many of his statements concerning the miraculous effects of vaccination among populations where only two or three per cent. had been operated upon; and who, therefore, must have vicariously delivered the remainder from smallpox. To an intellect thus defective, the introduction of vaccination to Sweden was the vaccination of the Swedes; the decline of smallpox was its suppression; and its suppression was the consequence of vaccination. But the excuse that is available for Jenner does not serve those who cannot plead his congenital defect, and are satisfied to repeat his preposterous assertions.
Smallpox kept declining in Sweden until the decade (1841-50) when the annual average of deaths per million fell to 212. The variations in the mortality in single years are remarkable. Here are thirteen years when the deaths were under a hundred—
| 1821 | 37 | 1843 | 9 | 1847 | 13 | ||
| 1822 | 11 | 1844 | 6 | 1848 | 71 | ||
| 1823 | 39 | 1845 | 6 | 1855 | 41 | ||
| 1829 | 53 | 1846 | 2 | 1856 | 52 | ||
| 1842 | 58 |
On the other hand, here are eighteen years when the deaths were over a thousand—