From 1837 to 1840 the deaths from Smallpox amounted to 12,000 a-year. From 1840 to 1863, during which period Vaccination was provided by the Poor Law Boards, the annual average of deaths was only 5,200. Thus by the diffusion of Vaccination, the mortality of Smallpox was reduced by more than one-half. Then in 1853 the Compulsory Law came into operation, and its first effect was remarkable. The number of vaccinations enormously increased and the deaths diminished. In 1854 they sank to 2,808, and in 1855 to 2,525. Afterwards they gradually increased up to the present time [When in fact they never were lower!], the Act having, as I already explained, fallen into desuetude. Thus is the efficiency of Vaccination established!
Into such stuff may a clever man descend! The statement was rotten with untruth. It was gross misrepresentation to set forth the average mortality of 12,000 for the years 1837-40 as permanent mortality which the Act of 1840 reduced to 5,200. The years 1837-40 embraced a severe epidemic, following years of quiescence during which vaccinators had been singing pæans over their imaginary victory. Holding as we do that smallpox comes and goes with indifference to vaccination (unless in so far as it keeps the disease alive) the figures cited by Mr. Lowe as completely illustrate our contention as they nullified his. By no contrivance can the fluctuations of smallpox be associated with more or less vaccination.
Probably Mr. Lowe was inspired by his medical staff, but, if so, he made the inspiration his own, evolving as from personal certainty, such fancy-work as this—
Out of 1000 who take Smallpox without being vaccinated 350 die; while out of 1000 badly vaccinated only 150 die; but out of 1000 well vaccinated only 5 die.
To which the conclusive answer would have been, that a mortality of 7 in 20 of the unvaccinated was about double that of smallpox in the time when all were unvaccinated; and that disregarding the factitious classification, the mortality over all cases continued as it was in the pre-vaccination era. What smallpox was, smallpox has remained—discrete, confluent, malignant; each type being qualified as slight, dangerous, and deadly; the relation of vaccination to the type being wholly irrelevant.
Further, he proclaimed without reserve, that smallpox was transmuted to cowpox in the cow—
There was a theory started that the efficacy of Vaccination was wearing out; but the valuable discovery of Mr. Ceely has set any apprehension on that score at rest for ever. Mr. Ceely has proved that Smallpox, when taken from the human body and introduced to that of the cow, produces Cowpox. It is thus evident that we have the means of obtaining Cowpox of the requisite strength to any extent. The beautiful discovery has also been made that the security of Vaccination may be almost indefinitely increased by multiplying the number of punctures.
Thus was mystery dispelled! Cowpox was smallpox diversified in the cow, and the lost security of Jenner’s single puncture was recovered in tattoo!
Appealing to the sentiment of medical men in favour of vaccination as exhibited in the replies to Simon’s queries in 1857—a fallacy for conviction which Mr. Lowe would have been quick to detect if advanced for any clerical, scholastic, or other trading interest, he observed—