Now, it is manifest, that if the ratio of decrease had been continually lessening, as appears on the very face of the account, and if, during the whole of the last period of twenty years, the annual loss had been but 1 per cent., having been 1¾ per cent. during the former immediately preceding period of thirteen years, that loss would be somewhat more than 1 per cent. at the beginning of the last period, and somewhat less than 1 per cent. towards the end of it. But even this loss of 1 per cent. was itself accounted for, by an extraordinary series of hurricanes and consequent famines, from which it was stated that fifteen thousand Slaves lost their lives; and still more, the 1 per cent. included the loss on all the Africans who were imported during that period. This, which is termed the loss in the seasoning, has been estimated by high West Indian authorities, to be, including the loss in the harbour, between 1–4th and 1–3d of the whole number imported; by some it has been rated still higher. This mortality was supposed to be in a considerable degree occasioned by the Slaves having been commonly landed in a highly diseased state, owing in a great measure, as was supposed, to crowding, and other evils on shipboard: And the Assembly and Council of Jamaica estimated that 1½ per cent. of all the Africans imported died in the short period, probably not above a fortnight, between the ship’s entrance into port and the day of sale. Adding together the whole loss fairly to be ascribed to these various causes of mortality, of which all depending on the voyage would obviously cease with the importations, they would more than account for the whole 1 per cent. lost during the last period; and we should be warranted in concluding, that the whole number of Slaves in Jamaica were at length actually on the increase.
It will add to your confidence in the conclusion which so clearly results from the above calculations, to know that they were carefully drawn by that great and able minister before referred to, among whose extraordinary powers, peculiar clearness and accuracy in calculation was universally acknowledged to possess an eminent place. Indeed this result ought not to surprize us, for we were assured by Mr. Long, many years before, “that upon most of the old settled estates in the island of Jamaica, the number of births and deaths every year is pretty equal, except any malignant disorder happens.”
Barbadoes Slaves’ Population.
Calculating on the same principles, and from West Indian accounts, it appeared that in Barbadoes also, the annual loss of Slaves has been of late under 1 per cent. Indeed if the loss had been so small in Jamaica, it probably was not greater in most of the other islands, into which, in general, the importations had been less considerable, and in which, from their several circumstances, the population was likely to be, to say the least, full as well kept up as in Jamaica itself. |Second Proposition proved.| Thus the second proposition was established, that, notwithstanding the general prevalence of so many and great abuses, the annual decrease was very inconsiderable.
Third Proposition.
The third proposition, that therefore an increase might in future be expected, must doubtless rest on the basis of probable inference; but in a case like this, in which an appeal is made to a principle of sure and unerring operation, as established by universal experience, we may hold our conclusion almost with the certainty of absolute demonstration. If the many existing abuses would account for a great annual decrease, yet there had been no decrease at all, or a very small one; it clearly follows, that if the prevailing abuses could be done away, or even considerably mitigated, we might anticipate in future a great and rapid annual increase.
Opponents most powerful objections.
Our chief opponents of abolition in Parliament objected neither to the premises on which our reasonings concerning the West Indian population were grounded, nor to the conclusions which we drew from them. They acknowledged, as has been already stated, to the utmost extent, the guilt and cruelty of the Slave Trade. But they urged, that it would be fair to give the West Indians time for the completing of their gangs of Slaves, and for the subsiding of their prejudices; and as they warmed in argument, advancing in their positions, they contended, that from the facilities afforded by the local circumstances of the islands for smuggling, it would be found impracticable to abolish the Slave Trade without the aid of such regulations as could only be enacted by the West Indian Legislatures themselves. They trusted, however, the time would ere long arrive, when, by the general consent of all parties, this hateful traffic might be abandoned. A respite till the remainder of the century was alone asked, a period of eight years, and on the 1st of January 1801, the reign of justice and humanity was to commence, and a new and happier day was to begin to dawn on the wretched Negroes. Meanwhile, no new settlements were to be formed, a limited number of Slaves only was to be annually imported; and other regulations and measures were to be adopted, with a view to the general abolition of the Trade in human beings.
Time would fail me, were I to attempt to lay before you in detail the various discussions which subsequently took place. It may be enough to state, that the Abolitionists apprehended, that if Parliament, acknowledging the foul injustice and cruelty of the African Slave Trade, should suffer it to continue for several years on any such weak and vague grounds as those of not shocking the prejudices, and acting contrary to the wishes of the West Indian proprietors, and on such other pleas as were urged by our opponents, when it had been distinctly proved by the greatest political authorities, who, differing on most other subjects, entirely concurred on this, that the measure so far from being ultimately injurious to the West Indians, would substantially and permanently promote their interests, it would be in vain that we should flatter ourselves that any determination to abolish the Slave Trade at the end of eight years would ever be adhered to.
If obligations so powerful, if duties so clear and urgent, could be now so easily evaded, surely at the end of eight years some new pleas would be set up for the continuance of the trade, and the Abolitionists themselves would then be told, that, having formerly recognised the right of sacrificing the dictates of justice and humanity to considerations of expediency, they ought in common consistency to grant a new respite on the same or better grounds. Thus, period after period would be claimed from us, so long as ever the planters should choose to purchase, or as Africa should have victims to supply.