The new air world

by Willis L. Moore

Another man whose name is dear to the heart of every patriotic American conducted, in conjunction with a friend, a series of weather observations, beginning in 1771 and continued during the stirring times of the Revolution. This was the sage of Monticello, Thomas Jefferson.

During the first half of the nineteenth century, nearly a hundred years after Franklin’s northeast rainstorm, Redfield, Espy, Loomis, Henry, and other American scientists laboriously gathered by mail the data of storms after their passage and demonstrated their principal motions to be such as Franklin had supposed. Professor Joseph Henry, Secretary of the Smithsonian Institution, in 1855, constructed the first daily weather map from simultaneous observations collected by telegraph. He did not publish his forecast but used his large wall map for the purpose of demonstrating the feasibility of organizing a Government weather service. If there were no other achievements to the credit of the institution founded in this country through the benevolence of the English philanthropist, James Smithson, who, by the way, never gazed upon our fair land, the work of the Smithsonian Institution in connection with practical meteorology would always give it a warm place in the hearts of those who believe the crowning achievements of science consist in giving to the world knowledge which results in the saving of human life, the amelioration of the sufferings of human beings, and the acceleration of the wheels of commerce and industry.

Although American scientists were the pioneers in discovering the progressive character of storms and in demonstrating the practicability of weather services, the United States was the fourth Government to give legal autonomy to a weather service. Holland established a weather service, with telegraph reports and forecasts, in 1860; England followed with a smaller service in 1861; and France in 1863. But none of these countries has an area from which observations can be collected great enough to give such a synoptic picture of storms as is necessary in the making of forecasts of much utility. It would require an international service, embracing all the countries of Europe, to equal, in extent of the area covered and of the accuracy of its forecasts, the service of the United States, which was begun in 1870, as the result of agitation by Lapham, Henry, Abbe, Maury, and others.

The vast region now brought under the dominion of twice daily synchronous observations embraces an area extending two thousand miles north and south, three thousand miles east and west, and so fortunately located in the interest of the meteorologist as to include an important arc on the circum-polar thoroughfare of storms of the northern hemisphere. Simultaneous observations, collected twice daily by telegraph from two hundred stations, distributed throughout this great area, renders it possible at several central offices, where all the reports are received, to present to the trained eye of the forecaster a wonderful panoramic picture of atmospheric conditions. Each twelve hours the kaleidoscope changes and a new graphic picture of actual changes is shown. The movements of storm centers and cold-wave areas are noted and estimates made as to their probable course during the next twenty-four hours. Where else can the meteorologist find such an opportunity to study storms and atmospheric changes?

In 1870, and for ten years thereafter, our forecasts and storm warnings were looked upon by the press and the people more as experiments than as serious statements. The newspapers especially were prone to facetiously comment on the forecasts, and many were clamorous for the abolition of the service during the first years of its existence. There was some ground for the criticisms. We knew nearly as much about the mechanics of storms at that time as we do to-day, but we had not, by a daily watching of the inception, the development, and the progression of storms, trained a corps of expert forecasters, such as now form a part of the staff of the Chief of the Weather Bureau, and from which the writer was graduated before he became Chief. Along about 1880, mariners began to note that danger signals were, in far more than a majority of cases, followed by heavy winds; they began to reason that it would be better to take precaution against storms that never came, than to be unprepared for those which did come according to the forecasts.

It is a fact that many times, by the operation of forces not indicated by the surface readings, the barometer at the center of a storm begins to rise and the velocity of the whirling mass to decrease. In such a case the storm signals placed in advance of the storm center would fail to give the proper information. Again, the storm center may suddenly acquire a force not anticipated, or it may pursue a track considerably divergent from the normal for the location and season. In this case, also, the forecasts may warn some cities that fail to receive the effects of the storm. However, during the past few years the staff of the Weather Bureau, which includes the ablest meteorologists in the United States, has made a study of the peculiarities of the different types of storms occurring in the different localities during the various seasons of the year, their line of travel and the force they may be expected to attain. Competitive examinations have been held to test the comparative merits of those who, by natural ability, are best fitted to correctly and quickly correlate in their minds the conditions shown on a meteorological chart, and to make accurate deductions therefrom as to the development, movement, and force of storms. This line of work and investigation has resulted in improved forecasts; so much so that mariners now universally heed the storm warnings; horticulturists and truck gardeners make ample provision for protection against frost; the shippers of perishable produce give full credence to the cold wave predictions. Of the many West Indian hurricanes which have swept our Atlantic seaboard from Florida to Maine during the past many years, not one has reached a single seaport without danger warnings being sent well in advance of the storm; and few unnecessary warnings have been issued. The result is that few disasters of consequence have occurred. Large owners of marine property estimate that one of these severe storms traversing our Atlantic coast in the absence of danger signals would leave not less than three million dollars’ worth of wreckage. Twice a census was taken just after the passage of severe hurricanes to determine the value of property held in port by the danger warning sent out in advance of the storms. In one case the figure was placed at thirty-four million dollars and in the other thirty-eight million dollars. Of course this does not represent the value of property saved. It simply shows the value of property placed in positions of safety as a result of the danger signals and warning messages sent to masters.

On January 1, 1898, an extensive cold wave swept from the Rocky Mountains eastward to the seaboard. Estimates secured from shippers in a hundred principal cities indicate that property valued at three million four hundred thousand dollars was saved as a direct result of the predictions sent out well in advance of the coming of the severe cold. The utility of these forecasts to the agriculture, the commerce, and the industry of the country is so great that there is hardly a daily paper that does not publish weather forecasts in a prominent place, and there is scarcely a reader who fails to note the predictions.

Twenty-five years ago mariners on our Great Lakes and seaboard depended on their own weather lore to warn them of coming storms. Then, although the number of craft plying our waters was much less than now, every severe storm that swept the Lakes or Atlantic coast left destruction and death in its wake, and for days afterward the dead were cast up by the receding waves, and the shores were lined with wreckage. Happily this is not now the case, for the Weather Bureau is ever watching the changes of atmospheric conditions, and giving to the mariner warning of coming storms. Each observer telegraphs instantly to the Central Office whenever the delicately adjusted instruments at his station show unusual agitation. By this means the inception of many storms is detected when the regular morning and evening reports fail to give notice of their origin.