2. Without the support of the eighty Nationalists a Vote, of Censure or otherwise, would be heavily defeated.
3. The support of the Nationalists would demand a heavier price than any large portion of the Liberal party would be prepared to pay.
On what occasion can a trial of party strength arise?
1. On the election of Speaker.
2. On the question of Parliamentary Oath.
Speakership.
The Irish are hostile to Mr. Peel.
The Whigs equally strong in his favour. The Government can displace Mr. Peel with the help of the Irish. The Whigs will be bitterly alienated. On the other hand, the Government can support Mr. Peel and carry his election. The Irish will find their revenge in voting for Mr. Bradlaugh. The triumph of Mr. Bradlaugh would be a shaking blow to the Tory Government and party. The alienation of the Whigs by the defeat of Mr. Peel would certainly in the course of a few weeks or months destroy the Government.
Which course to choose?
Seeing that the Irish support can never be other than momentary, seeing that by no possibility can [that] support be clothed with any elements of stability, seeing that the alienation of the Whigs from the Government must lead to great evils, seeing that Whig support, if attained, is honourable, stable, and natural, in my own mind I pronounce for the re-election of Mr. Peel and for running the risk of the triumph for Mr. Bradlaugh.