Our Dreadnought margin in home waters at the outbreak of war had been just sufficient. Every ship was ready and in good order. We did not feel that we could spare one. But after the first two months we were compelled to send ships one at a time from each Battle Squadron down to their home ports on the South Coast for refit. A regular system of refits, as was foreseen, had to be instituted. This involved the permanent absence of two or three of the most important vessels from the Grand Fleet. The enemy, on the other hand, lying in his main base, could always in theory be credited with having all his ships available at his selected moment for battle. Before, however, the drain of refits came upon us we had succeeded in reinforcing the Fleet by five fine ships, so that we began the war at our maximum possible strength and always, except for the briefest intervals, held or improved on that number.

The requirements of the Commander-in-Chief were, however, hard to meet. The strategy on which we were all agreed, involved keeping the Grand Fleet in distant northern waters and required very large forces of destroyers and other light craft for its local security, and for its service in battle. On the other hand, while no properly defended war harbour had yet been created capable of holding the entire fleet, various other bases had to be effectively guarded and patrolled, for which separate flotillas must be supplied. If at any time from any cause, two or three ships were absent from the Grand Fleet for a week or two, the Commander-in-Chief drew severe comparisons between the German Fleet and his own. He was a master of this kind of argument. From his own side he deducted any ship which had any defect, however temporary, however small—even defects which would not have prevented her from taking her place in the line in an emergency. He sometimes also deducted two or three of the most powerful battleships in the world which had newly joined his command because they were not trained up to the full level of efficiency of the others; and these were absolutely blotted out as if they were of no value whatever.[[90]] He next proceeded to deal with the enemy. He always credited them with several ships more than we now know they had, or were then thought likely to have. In October, 1914, he gave credence to a suggestion that the four German Dreadnoughts of the König class had been completely re-armed with 14–inch guns. In 1915 the size of these guns had advanced to 15–inch. I was on both occasions compelled to set up expert committees to demolish these baseless suppositions. Unable to deny that the British line of battle could fire a broadside double in weight to that of the Germans, he developed a skilful argument to prove that this advantage was more than counteracted by other disadvantages arising from the superior displacement of contemporary German ships. He dwelt on this even at a period when his fleet had been reinforced by seven or eight additional units of enormous power without any corresponding accession to the enemy’s strength.

One must admit, nevertheless, that the withdrawal of the Princess Royal inflicted a very serious injury upon the Battle Cruiser Squadron, and that Sir David Beatty might have had to fight an action without any margin of superiority during her absence. In this matter, however, Lord Fisher entered the lists in person.

First Sea Lord to Commander-in-Chief.

Personal.

November 12, 1914.

I want to make it clear to you what the Scharnhorst Squadron means as regards our dispositions.

1. We have not heard of them since November 4.

2. They may adopt the following courses:—

(a) Go through Panama Canal, smash our West Indian Fleet and release all the armed German liners from New York—hence the Princess Royal.