Our projected Railway will start at the Great Northern Port and follow the Lwan Valley to the prairie city of Dolon Nor, a distance of three hundred miles. This railway should be built in double tracks at the commencement. As our projected Port is a starting point to the sea, so Dolon Nor is a gate to the vast prairie which our projected Railway System is going to tap. It is from Dolon Nor our Northwestern Railway System is going to radiate. First, a line N. N. E. will run parallel to the Khingan Range to Khailar, and thence to Moho, the gold district on the right bank of the Amur River. This line is about eight hundred miles in length. Second, a line N. N. W. to Kurelun, and thence to the frontier to join the Siberian line near Chita. This line has a distance of about six hundred miles. Third, a trunk line northwest, west, and southwest, skirting off the northern edge of the desert proper, to Urumochi at the western end of China, a distance of about one thousand six hundred miles all on level land. Fourth, a line from Urumochi westward to Ili, a distance of about four hundred miles. Fifth, a line from Urumochi southeast across the Tienshan gap into the Darim basin, then turning southwest running along the fertile zone between the southern watershed of the Tienshan and the northern edge of the Darim Desert, to Kashgar, and thence turning southeast to another fertile zone between the eastern watershed of the Pamir, the northern watershed of the Kuenlum Mountain and the southern edge of the Darim Desert, to the city of Iden or Keria, a distance of about one thousand two hundred miles all on level land. Sixth, a branch from the Dolon Nor Urumochi Trunk Line, which I shall call Junction A, to Urga and thence to the frontier city Kiakata, a distance of about three hundred and fifty miles. Seventh, a branch from Junction B to Uliassutai and beyond N. N. W. up to the frontier, a distance of about six hundred miles. And eighth, a branch from Junction C northwest to the frontier, a distance of about four hundred and fifty miles. See Map II.
Regarded from the principle of "following the line of least resistance" our projected railways in this program is the most ideal one. For most of the seven thousand miles of lines under this project are on perfectly level land. For instance, the Trunk Line from Dolon Nor to Kashgar and beyond, about a distance of three thousand miles right along is on the most fertile plain and encounters no natural obstacles, neither high mountains nor great rivers.
Regarded from the principle of "the most suitable position," our projected railways will command the most dominating position of world importance. It will form a part of the trunk line of the Eurasian system which will connect the two populous centers, Europe and China, together. It will be the shortest line from the Pacific Coast to Europe. Its branch from Ili will connect with the future Indo-European line, and through Bagdad, Damascus and Cairo, will link up also with the future African system. Then there will be a through route from our projected port to Capetown. There is no existing railway commanding such a world important position as this.
Regarded from the principle of the "most urgent need of the Nation," this railway system becomes the first in importance, for the territories traversed by it are larger than the eighteen provinces of China Proper. Owing to the lack of means of transportation and communication at present these rich territories are left undeveloped and millions of laborers in the congested provinces along the Coast and in the Yangtze Valley are without work. What a great waste of natural and human energies. If there is a railway connecting these vast territories, the waste labor of the congested provinces can go and develop these rich soils for the good not only of China but also of the whole commercial world. So a system of railways to the northwestern part of the country is the most urgent need both politically and economically for China to-day.
I have intentionally left out the first principle—"the most remunerative field must be selected"—not because I want to neglect it but because I mean to call more attention to it and treat it more fully. It is commonly known to financiers and railway men that a railway in a densely populated country from end to end is the best paying proposition, and a railway in a thinly settled country from end to end is the least paying one. And a railway in an almost unpopulated country like our projected lines will take a long time to make it a paying business. That is why the United States Government had to grant large tracts of public lands to railway corporations to induce them to build the Transcontinental lines to the Pacific Coast, half a century ago. Whenever I talked with foreign railway men and financiers about the construction of railways to Mongolia and Sinkiang, they generally got very shy of the proposition. Undoubtedly they thought that it is for political and military reasons only that such a line as the Siberian Railway was built, which traversed through a thinly populated land. But they could not grasp the fact which might be entirely new to them, that a railway between a densely populated country and a sparsely settled country will pay far better than one that runs from end to end in a densely populated land. The reason is that in economic conditions the two ends of a well populated country are not so different as that between a thickly populated country and a newly opened country. At the two ends of a well populated country, in many respects, the local people are self-supplying, excepting a few special articles which they depend upon the other end of the road to supply. So the demand and supply between the two places are not very great, thus the trade between the two ends of the railway could not be very lucrative. While the difference of the economic condition between a well populated country and an unpopulated country is very great. The workers of the new land have to depend upon the supplies of the thickly populated country almost in everything excepting foodstuffs and raw materials which they have in abundance and for disposal of which they have to depend upon the demand of the well populated district. Thus the trade between the two ends of the line will be extraordinarily great. Furthermore, a railway in a thickly populated place will not affect much the masses which consist of the majority of the population. It is only the few well-to-do and the merchants and tradesmen that make use of it. While with a railway between a thickly populated country and a sparsely settled or unsettled country, as soon as it is opened to traffic for each mile, the masses of the congested country will use it and rush into the new land in a wholesale manner. Thus the railway will be employed to its utmost capacity in passenger traffic from the beginning. The comparison between the Peking-Hankow Railway and the Peking-Mukden Railway in China is a convincing proof.
The Peking-Hankow Railway is a line of over eight hundred miles running from the capital of the country to the commercial center in the heart of China right along in an extraordinarily densely settled country from end to end. While the Peking-Mukden line is barely six hundred miles in length running from a thickly populated country to thinly populated Manchuria. The former is a well paying line but the latter pays far better. The net profit of the shorter Peking-Mukden Line is sometimes three to four millions more yearly than that of the longer Peking-Hankow line.
Therefore, it is logically clear that a railway in a thickly populated country is much better than one that is in a thinly populated country in remuneration. But a railway between a very thickly populated and a very thinly populated or unpopulated country is the best paying proposition. This is a law in Railway Economics which hitherto had not been discovered by railway men and financiers.
According to this new railway economic law, our projected railway will be the best remunerative project of its kind. For at the one end, we have our projected port which acts as a connecting link with the thickly populated coast of China and the Yangtze Valley and also the two existing lines, the Kingham and the Tsinpu, as feeders to the projected port and the Dolon Nor line. And at the other end, we have a vast and rich territory, larger than China Proper, to be developed. There is no such vast fertile field so near to a center of a population of four hundred millions to be found in any other part of the world.