II.
In Austria-Hungary lies the crucial point of the European and even of the world-wide problem raised by the German aggression, because:
1. Austria-Hungary has entered into the struggle in very peculiar circumstances. This State is not an enemy of the Allies, except at the bidding of the Hapsburg dynasty, which, by yielding to the injunctions of Berlin, has betrayed its own peoples. In fact, Francis Joseph declared war without even daring to consult his parliament, for he knew very well that nearly three-fourths of his subjects, sympathizing with Russia, France, and England, and being definitely hostile to Germany, would have opposed, by the voice of their representatives, any sanguinary conflict destined to turn to the advantage of Germanism.
2. It is manifest that Germany cannot maintain a war against Europe except with the help of the Austro-Hungarian soldiers, whom she has dexterously contrived to enlist in her cause, and of whom the vast majority only fight because they are forced to do so by the brutal German Staff Officers who command them.
3. It is clear that after the peace, if Germany were to evacuate all the territories she now occupies in the East and the West, to restore Alsace-Lorraine to France, and yet to keep her hold, more or less disguised, on Austria-Hungary, Berlin would possess all the means for retaking, after a short delay, Alsace-Lorraine from France, since, as we saw in the foregoing chapter, the German hold on Austria-Hungary inevitably implies the accomplishment of the scheme “from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf.”
4. From this last consideration it follows that if after the peace Germany were to retain her disguised hold on Austria-Hungary, the solemn promise given by France, England, and Russia, to re-establish Serbia in its independence and its integrity, would be practically incapable of fulfilment.
5. On the contrary, if the freedom from German control of at least the majority of the Austro-Hungarian territories were assured after the peace, this would absolutely prevent for the future any aggressive revival of Prussian militarism. For by the very fact of that independence the General Staff of Berlin would be deprived of troops which are indispensable to the forcible execution of the Pangerman projects.
6. A glance at the map (p. 113) will show that in virtue of their geographical situation nothing but the freedom of the majority of the Austro-Hungarian territories from German control could enable the Allies to keep their promises to Serbia, and, by definitely breaking the backbone of the Pangerman plan, to prevent the immense danger of the “Hamburg to the Persian Gulf” plan, the accomplishment of which all the Allies, without any exception (France, England, Russia, Italy, Japan, Belgium, Serbia, Montenegro) have a really vital interest to prevent. But, as we shall see at the end of the volume, their interest in this matter is also the interest of the whole civilized world.
The fact that public opinion in the Allied countries is not yet fully alive to the capital, the essential importance of the Austro-Hungarian question for the issue of the war and the future of Europe, is due to a variety of causes which must be enumerated.
In the first place, the question of Austria-Hungary, an empire composed of very complex racial and social elements, is undoubtedly very difficult to grasp.
In the next place, the lamentable want of interest in foreign affairs, which before the war prevailed in the Allied countries, is responsible for the extreme inaccuracy of those current beliefs on the subject, which the German press agents have successfully palmed off on the newspapers of the present Allies.
As a result, many people in these countries, especially in England, still imagine that Austria-Hungary, with a population of fifty millions, is a country mainly German, which is a radically false idea. This serious mistake is sometimes made, to my knowledge, even by men occupying very important posts.
Evidently a large part of the public is no longer quite so ignorant as that. Nevertheless, even for them the Austro-Hungarian question is still full of obscurities. Need we wonder at it? The official diplomatists themselves in general, whatever their personal intelligence, have been able to acquire but a very superficial insight into the internal affairs of the Hapsburg empire. The reasons for the deficiency have been already set forth (Chapter I., § 3); they include the old-fashioned means of observation and information which the diplomatists have been constrained to employ.
Finally, the learned men who have studied Austria-Hungary only as historians, that is to say, as foreigners and in books, whatever their qualifications, have not been able to acquaint themselves with the exact internal condition of the country, which has been completely transformed, especially within the last ten years. But it is just this present condition which it is important, and alone important, to comprehend.
This want of clear notions on the Hapsburg empire involves a very great danger for the Allies. It has contributed largely to the very grave mistakes which they have made in the general conduct of the war. An end must be put to this ignorance. In regard to Austria-Hungary the Allies must on no account continue to commit such a series of blunders as those which made up their policy towards the Balkans. Their punishment for such repeated mistakes would be even more severe than it has been.
The only way of avoiding these mistakes is to listen to the opinions of the few men, citizens of the Allied states, who in recent years, in virtue of their thorough-going studies and of their extensive travels in the whole of Austria-Hungary, have been able to acquire a really exact and general knowledge of the facts as they are at present.
Those who possess these qualifications are far from numerous. I will mention first two Russians: M. de Wesselitsky, correspondent of the Novoe Vremya in London, who knows not only Austria-Hungary, but all Europe, and has very profound views; and M. Briantchaninoff, of Petrograd. I know that in official circles the ideas of the latter gentleman are deemed too violent or extreme, but he is one of the few Russians who have travelled much for the purpose of acquainting themselves with foreign affairs. A very intelligent Liberal and a clearsighted man, he has for a very long time advocated the concession by Russia of the largest and the most genuine autonomy to Poland. His opinion with regard to Austria-Hungary, which he has often visited, deserves to be listened to.
Two Englishmen in particular possess an excellent knowledge of the Hapsburg empire: Mr. Wickham Steed, foreign editor of The Times, who was for ten years the remarkable correspondent of that powerful organ at Vienna; Mr. Seton-Watson, who, under the name of Scotus Viator, has published, within the last ten years, the results of his manifold inquiries in works of the highest value dealing with the nationalities subject to the German-Magyar yoke.
In France we find M. Louis Léger, Member of the Institute,[4] who for fifty-one years past, has devoted special study to all the peoples of Austria-Hungary and knows them thoroughly. Further, M. Ernest Denis, professor at the Sorbonne, has written a remarkable history of Bohemia. In studying on the spot for the purpose of writing this book, he has acquired a very full knowledge of the Czech nation, which by its geographical position in Bohemia and Moravia, forms the indispensable basis of every reconstitution of Austria-Hungary in a modern form. Finally, may I be allowed to cite myself, since for twenty-two years, by a series of manifold inquiries on the spot, I have endeavoured to understand in their detail the very complex problems which form the Austro-Hungarian question?
Now, I have reason to believe that these men, who have thoroughly studied Austria-Hungary, and whom therefore we ought to trust, are agreed on the general lines of the policy which the Allies should pursue in regard to the Hapsburg monarchy. I think that I am not mistaken when I say that the opinions which I am about to express are on the whole in harmony with the views of these gentlemen.
Let us first understand that those who still uphold the doctrine of the maintenance of Austria-Hungary as she is, that is, in subjection to the Hapsburg dynasty, are at least twenty years behind their time. To adopt this solution would be to play the German game; for it is practically impossible to separate the Hapsburgs from the Hohenzollerns. It would establish the Germanic yoke on the Slav and Latin subjects of the Hapsburgs, thus facilitating the accomplishment of the scheme “from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf.”
Finally, the Hapsburg dynasty has given too many proofs of its incapacity, its duplicity, and its submissiveness to the suggestions of Berlin, to allow us to consider seriously its maintenance at the head of the Austro-Hungarian peoples.
In no way must the Allies be dupes of the comedy which the Pangermans of Berlin, Vienna, and Budapest are getting up now in order to profit by the ignorance of the Allies as to Austro-Hungarian facts.
All the measures tending to force Austria-Hungary into the German Zollverein, which would make its political absorption inevitable, must be looked upon as a farce, a simple act of criminal violence done to the wishes of the immense majority of the populations in the Hapsburg monarchy. So true is this, that certain Magyar noblemen, who up to the present have been decided allies of Berlin, are already uttering protests against the Prussian yoke, understanding at last that it is to be imposed upon them. Count Theodore Batthyany, vice-president of the Independent Left of the Hungarian Chamber, declared at the end of March, 1916: “It is often said among us that the future Customs-Union would create in our country better economical conditions. This is much more true for Germany, who will hold both the reins and the whip in the combination.... Besides the Germans make no secret of it that in the proposed compact there will be other agricultural states which will be our future competitors (in allusion to Turkey and the Balkan States). Certainly, from the time that the union is concluded, all capital will come to us from Germany and never from elsewhere. The Germans will have the monopoly of capital among us, and you know what a monopoly is and what it costs. The money will cost us dear” (Le Temps, 1st February, 1916).
In Austria, M. Nemetz, President of the Chamber of Commerce at Prague, declared: “None of the arguments adduced in favour of a Customs-Union with Germany will for a moment bear the light of criticism. An insuperable obstacle is opposed to an intimate Customs-Union between the two empires: their interests are not identical but on the contrary competitive” (quoted by Le Temps, 9th February, 1916).
These categorical declarations prove what resistance the Pangerman manœuvre has already to encounter. The Allies have much to gain from these statements, for they prove the reality of the deep opposition existing between the interests of Pangerman Germany and those of the majority of the Austro-Hungarian peoples.
But there remains an essential point to prove, for it gives rise to special anxiety in the minds of that part of the public in the Allied countries which still harps on the false idea that Austro-Hungary is a specially German country. This section of the public doubts whether the application of the principle of nationalities, which the Allies demand, would not have the effect of necessarily and considerably increasing Germany by incorporating in it the Germans of the Hapsburg empire.
It is, therefore, necessary to demonstrate by means of figures and accurate geographical and ethnographical arguments that this fear is quite chimerical. Austria-Hungary contains all the elements of a new State which can be constituted on just and lasting foundations, and under such conditions that it would form for the future an insurmountable barrier to Pangermanism. It is there, as we shall see, on the road from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf, in Central Europe, and nowhere else that we shall find the solution of the problem set to the world by the hateful ambition of the Hohenzollerns.