2. THE EMPLOYMENT OF THE SCHOOL ENTERING AGE FOR PROGNOSIS
A promising but less emphasized basis of prognosticating the school success or failure of the pupils is found in the employment of the school entering ages for this purpose. The distribution of all the pupils (except 30 undistributed ones, for whom the records were incomplete), according to entering age, is here presented, independently for the boys and for the girls.
DISTRIBUTION OF PUPILS BY THEIR ENTRANCE AGES TO HIGH SCHOOL
| AGES | Undis- | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | tributed |
| 2646 B. | 16 | 211 | 820 | 900 | 497 | 148 | 23 | 10 | 7 | 14 |
| 3495 G. | 8 | 259 | 1124 | 1217 | 614 | 194 | 51 | 10 | 8 | 16 |
The entering ages of these 6,141 pupils are distributed from 12 to 20, with 30 of them for whom the age records were not given. The median age for all the entrants is 15.3. But in order to compare this with the median entering age (14.9) of the 1,033 pupils reported by King[21] for the Iowa City high school, or with the median entering age (14.5) of 1000 high school pupils in New York City, as reported by Van Denburg,[22a] it is necessary to reduce these medians to the same basis of age classification. Since age 15 for this study starts at 141/2, then 15.3 would be only 14.8 (15.3-.5) as by their classification. The percentages of the total number of pupils for each age are given below.
PERCENTAGES OF PUPILS FOR EACH ENTERING AGE
| AGES | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 20 | |
| Undistributed | ||||||||
| Total | 0.4 | 7.6 | 31.6 | 34.4 | 18.1 | 5.5 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Boys | 0.6 | 8.0 | 31.0 | 37.8 | 18.8 | 5.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Girls | 0.2 | 7.4 | 32.4 | 34.8 | 17.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
We see that 84 per cent of the pupils enter at age 14, 15, and 16, or, what is perhaps more important, that nearly 40 per cent enter under 15 years of age. The similarity of percentages for boys and for girls is pronounced. The slight advantage of the boys for ages 12 and 13 may be due to home influence in restricting the early entrance of the girls, thus causing a corresponding superiority for the girls at age 14. The mode of this percentage distribution is at 15 for both boys and girls.
What portion of each entering-age group has no failures? This question and the answer presented below direct our attention to the superiority of the pupils of the earlier entering ages. That these groups of earlier ages of entrance are comprised of pupils selected for their capabilities is shown by the successive decrease in the percentages of the non-failing as the ages of their entrance increases, up to age 18.
DISTRIBUTION OF THE PUPILS WHO DO NOT FAIL,
FOR EACH ENTERING-AGE-GROUP
| AGES | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Totals | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 1061 B | 11 | 102 | 320 | 309 | 186 | 56 | 9 | 4 | 4 |
| 1575 G | 3 | 133 | 522 | 545 | 256 | 73 | 29 | 7 | 6 |
| % of | |||||||||
| Entrants | 58.0 | 50.0 | 43.4 | 40.0 | 39.8 | 37.7 | 55.0 | ||
Here is definite evidence that the pupils of the earlier entering ages are less likely to fail in any of their school subjects than are the older ones. Those entering at ages 12 or 13 escape school failures altogether for 50 per cent or more of their numbers. Those entering at age 14 are somewhat less successful but still seem superior to those of later entrance ages. It is encouraging, then, that these three ages of entrance include nearly 40 per cent of the 6,141 pupils. There is, of course, nothing in this situation to justify any deduction of the sort that pupils entering at the age of 17 would have been more successful had they been sent to high school earlier, except that had they been able to enter high school earlier they would have represented a different selection of ability by that fact alone. There is also a sort of selection operative for the pupils entering at ages 18, 19, or 20, which tends to account at least partly for the rise in the percentage of the non-failing for these years. It is safe to believe that for the most part only the more able, ambitious, and purposeful individuals are likely to display the energy required or to discern the need of their entering high school when they have reached the age of 18 or later. The appeal of school athletics will in this case seem very inadequate to explain their entrance so late, since the girls predominate so strongly for these years. Then it may be contended further that the added maturity and experience of those later entrants may partly compensate for a lack of native ability, if such be the case, and thereby result in a relatively high percentage of non-failing pupils for this group.
It is readily conceded that the avoidance of failure in school work serves as only one criterion for gauging the pupils' accomplishment. It is accordingly important to inquire how the different age-groups of school entrants compare with reference to the persistence and ability which is represented by school graduation. A truly striking array of percentages follows in reference to the question of how many of the entering pupils in each age-group do graduate.
DISTRIBUTION OF THE PUPILS GRADUATING FOR EACH ENTERING-AGE GROUP
| AGES | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Totals | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 796 B | 14 | 115 | 290 | 253 | 99 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 1140 G | 5 | 151 | 465 | 363 | 121 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| % of Entrants | 79.1 | 56.6 | 38.8 | 29.9 | 20.0 | 13.4 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 13.3 |
These percentages bear convincing testimony in support of the previous evidence that the pupils of the earlier entering years are highly selected in ability. Of all the high school entrants they are the 'most fit,' the least likely to fail, and the most certain to graduate. The percentage of pupils graduating who entered at the age of 12 is approximately four times that of pupils who entered at the age of 16. Thirteen is more than four times as fruitful of graduates as age 17; fourteen bears a similar relationship to age 18; and the percentage for fifteen is three times that for age 19, as is apparent from the above figures. The fact that the decline of these percentages ceases at age 19 is probably due to the greater maturity of such later entrants.
When we make inquiry as to what portion of the graduates in each of the above groups 'goes through' in four years or less, we get the series of percentages indicated below.
PERCENTAGE OF THE GRADUATES WHO FINISH IN FOUR YEARS OR LESS,
FOR EACH OF THE ENTERING-AGE GROUPS
| Ages | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % of Each Group | 84.3 | 85.7 | 75.8 | 79.5 | 84.3 | 80.4 | 100 |
It appears that the ones in the older age-groups who do graduate are not so handicapped in reference to the time requirement for graduation as we might have expected them to be from the facts of the preceding pages. Perhaps that fact is partly accounted for by the not unusual tendency to restrain the more rapid progress of the younger pupils or to promote the older ones partly by age, so that by our school procedure the younger and the brighter pupils may at times actually be more retarded, according to mental age, than are the older and slower ones.
Since the same teachers, the same schools, and the same administrative policy were involved for the different entrance-age groups, the prognostic value of the factor of age at entrance will seem to be unimpaired, whether it operates independently as a gauge of rank in mental ability, or conjointly with and indicative of the varying influence on these pupils of other concomitant factors, such as the difference of economic demands, the difference of social interests, the difference in permanence of conflicting habits of the individual, or the difference in effectiveness of the school's appeal as adapted for the several ages. One may contend, and with some success, that the high school régime is better adjusted to the younger pupils, with the consequent result that they are more successful in its requirements. The distractions of more numerous social interests may actually accompany the later years of school age. In reference to the social distractions of girls, Margaret Slattery says,[23] "This mania for 'going' seizes many of our girls just when they need rest and natural pleasures, the great out-of-doors, and early hours of retiring." But surely such distractions are not peculiar to the girls alone. The economic needs that arise at the age of sixteen and later are often considered to constitute a pressing factor regarding the continuance in school. But VanDenburg[22b] was convinced by the investigation, in New York City, of 420 rentals for the families of pupils that "on the whole the economic status of these pupils seems to be only a slight factor in their continuance in school." A similar conclusion was reached by Wooley,[24] in Cincinnati, after investigating 600 families, in which it was estimated that 73 per cent of the families did not need the earnings of the children who left school to go to work. The corresponding report by a commission[25] in Massachusetts shows 76 per cent. The same facts for New York City[26] indicate that 80 per cent of such families are independent of the child's wages. But Holley concludes,[27] from a study of certain towns in Illinois, that "there is a high correlation between the economic, educational, and social advantages of a home and the number of years of school which its children receive." It will hardly be denied that even aside from the relation of the family means to the school persistence, the economic needs may have a direct influence on the failing of the children in their school work, either because home conditions may be decidedly unfavorable for required home study, or because of the larger portion of time that must be given to outside employment, with its consequent reduction of the normal vitality of the individual or of his readiness to study. But, in spite of the possible interrelationship of these factors, it still appears that the school entrance age of pupils will serve as a valuable sort of educational compass to foretell in part the probable direction of their later accomplishment.