6. THE TIME PERIOD AND THE NUMBER OF FAILURES

The statement that the number of failures will be greater for the failing pupils who remain in school the longer time may seem rather commonplace. But it will not seem trite to state that the percentage of the total failures on the total subject enrollments increases by school semesters up to the seventh; that the percentage of possible failures for all graduating pupils increases likewise; or that the failures per pupil in each single semester tend to increase as the time period extends to the later semesters. Yet radical as these statements may sound, they are actually substantiated by the facts to be presented.

PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL FAILURES
ON THE TOTAL SUBJECT ENROLLMENT, BY SEMESTERS

Semester	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Per Cent	11.5	13.9	14.5	15.1	14.5	15.3	12.1	9.9	10.9	6.2

The 808 pupils who received no marks, and many of whom dropped out early in the first semester, are not included in the subject enrollment for the above percentages. Otherwise the enrollments taken are for the beginning of each semester and inclusive of all the pupils. These percentages rise from 11.5 in the first semester to 15.3 in the sixth semester. Then the percentages drop off, doubtless due to the increasing effect by this time of the non-failing graduates on the total enrollment. The graduates alone are next considered in this respect.

PERCENTAGES OF THE TOTAL FAILURES FOR THE GRADUATES
ON THE TOTAL SUBJECT ENROLLMENT FOR GRADUATES, BY SEMESTERS

Semester	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Per Cent	5.9	6.6	7.8	9.1	9.2	10.5	9.1	7.3	8.8	5.2

These percentages are based on the total possibility of failure, and reach their highest point in the sixth semester, where the percentage of failure is nearly twice that for the first semester. These same facts may be effectively presented also by the percentages of such failures for the graduates on the total subject enrollment for only the failing graduates in each semester.

PERCENTAGES OF THE TOTAL FAILURES FOR THE GRADUATES
ON THE TOTAL SUBJECT ENROLLMENT FOR FAILING GRADUATES, BY SEMESTERS

Semester	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Per Cent	31.4	31.2	31.8	32.7	32.3	36.6	37.5	37.4	38.0	36.0

The percentages here are limited to the total possibilities of failure for those graduates who do fail in each semester. They reach the highest point in the ninth semester, with a gradual increase from the first. The high point is reached later in this series than in the one immediately preceding, because while the percentage of pupils failing decreases in the final semesters ([p. 14]), there is an increase in the number of failures per failing pupil ([Table IV]).

This increase of percentages by semesters for the graduates on the total possibility of failure, as just noted, is due to an actual increase in the number of failures for the later semesters. By the distribution of failures in [Table II] more than 56 per cent of the failures are found after the completion of the second year, in spite of the fact that about 10 per cent of the pupils who graduate do so in three or three and a half years. The failures of the graduates are simply the more numerous after the first two years in school. That this situation is no accident due to the superior weight of any single school in the composite group, is readily disclosed by turning to the units which form the composite. For these schools the percentages of the graduates' failures that are found after the second year range from 40 per cent to 66 per cent. In only three of the schools are such percentages under 50 per cent, while in three others they are above 60 per cent.

Further confirmation of how the increase of failures accompanies the pupils who stay longer in school is offered in the facts of [Table IV]. Here are indicated the number of pupils who before graduating fail 1, 2, 3, etc., times, in semesters 1, 2, 3, etc., up to 10. Of all the occurrences of only one failure per pupil in a semester, 50 per cent are distributed after the fourth semester. In this same period (after the fourth semester) are found 53.2 per cent of those with two failures in a semester; 67.6 per cent of those with three failures in a semester; 71.6 per cent of those having four; 78.6 per cent of those having five; and all of those having six failures in a single semester. One could almost say that the longer they stay the more they fail.

The statements presented herein regarding the relative increase of failures for at least the first three years in school are likely to arouse some surprise among that portion of the people in the profession, with whom the converse of this situation has been quite generally accepted as true. Such an impression has indeed not seemed unwarranted according to some reports, but the responsibility for it must be due in part to the manner of presenting the data, so that at times it actually serves to misstate or to conceal certain important features of the situation. Since the dropping out is heaviest in the early semesters, and since the school undertakes the expense of providing for all who enter, it does not seem to be a correct presentation of the facts to compute the percentage of failure on only the pupils who finish the whole semester. Such a practice tends to assign an undue percentage of failures to the earlier semesters, one that is considerably too high in comparison with that of the later semesters where the dropping out becomes relatively light. It is not sufficient to report merely what part of our final product is imperfect, instead of reporting, as do most institutions outside of the educational field, what part of all that is taken in becomes waste product. This situation is sufficiently grievous to demand further comment.

In his study of the New Jersey high schools, Bliss states[28] that one of the striking facts found is the "steady decrease of failure from the freshman to the senior year." If we bear in mind that Bliss used only the promotion sheets for his data, and took no account of the drop-outs preceding promotion, and if we then estimate that an average of 10 per cent may drop out before the end of the first semester (the percentage is 13.2 for our eight schools), then the percentages of failure recorded for the first year will be reduced by one-eleventh of their own respective amounts for each school reported by Bliss, as we translate the percentages to the total enrollment basis. As a consequence of such a procedure, Bliss' percentages, as reported for the second year, will be as high as or higher than those for the first year in six of the ten schools concerned, and nearly equal in two more of the schools. It is also evident that his percentages of failure as reported for the junior and senior years are not very different from each other in six of the ten schools, although there is no inclusion of the drop-outs in the percentages stated. The only pronounced or actual decrease in the percentages of failures as Bliss reports them, occurs between the sophomore and junior years, and it is doubtless a significant fact that this decided drop appears at the time and place where the opportunity for elective subjects is first offered in many schools. Yet apparently it has not seemed worth while to most persons who report the facts of failure to compute separately from the other subjects the percentages for the 3- and 4-year required subjects.

A rather small decline is shown in the percentages of failure for the successive semesters, as quoted below for 2,481 high school pupils of Paterson[29] (the average of two semesters), although these percentages are based upon the number of pupils examined at the completion of the semester. It may further be noted that these percentages do not follow the same pupils by semesters, but state the facts for successive classes of pupils. The same criticisms may be offered for the percentages as quoted from Wood[30] for 435 pupils.

PERCENTAGES OF PUPILS FAILING, BY SEMESTERS

	SEMESTERS
	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Paterson	17.8	18.4	16.7	15.0	15.6	11.6	9.4	7.4
Wood	24.5	14.5	29.5	30.0	31.0	7.9	16.2	. .
OBrien ([p. 41])	11.5	13.9	14.5	15.1	14.5	15.3	12.1	9.9

The above series of percentages tend to agree at least in showing little or no decline in the percentages of failure for the first five or six semesters in school.

Another tendency to conceal important features in relation to the facts of school failures may be found in the grouping together of non-continuous and continuous subjects, the latter of which are generally required. F.W. Johnson found in the University of Chicago High School[31] that the percentage of failures by successive years indicated little or no decrease for mathematics and for English (which were 3- and 4-year subjects respectively). The figures were based on the records for a period of two years. In regard to St. Paul, it was possible to compute similar information from the data which were available.[32] The percentages of failure are presented separately in each case for Latin, German, and French, not more than two years of which are required in the schools referred to above. A contrast is thus presented that is both interesting and suggestive.

PERCENTAGES OF PUPILS FAILING, BY YEARS. (Johnson, F.W.)

	YEARS
	1	2	3	4
English	18.1	9.5	18.4	14.4
Math	12.9	12.9	13.6	5.6
Latin	14.1	9.0	2.9	. .
German	12.4	7.4	. .	. .
French	14.3	9.6	3.1	. .

PERCENTAGES OF PUPILS FAILING, BY SEMESTERS. (St. Paul)

	SEMESTERS
	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
English and Math	17.8	18.0	16.3	16.9	8.1	14.0	. .	. .
Latin, German, French	17.6	17.5	15.1	7.6	3.0	. .	. .	. .

Apparently the full story has by no means been told when we simply say that there is a general decline in the percentages of failure by years or semesters. First, the failures of the drop-outs should be included, so far as it is at all feasible; second, the percentage should be based on the total enrollment in the subject, not on the final product, if we wish to disclose the real situation; third, the continuous or required subjects should be distinguished in order to give a full statement of the facts. On [page 41] are presented the percentages of failure for the 1,125 failing graduates alone, as found in this study, the greater portion of whose work, as it actually happened, consisted of 3- and 4-year subjects continuous from the time of entrance, and for whom the percentages of failure increase to the ninth semester.