The Past And Future Of Gold
By David M. Balfour.
Gold, from the earliest times to the present day, has been regarded as one of the most precious of metals. Next to osmium, iodium, and platinum, it is the heaviest of metals, being nineteen times heavier than water. Next to iron it is the most extensively diffused metal upon our planet. It occurs in granite, the oldest rock known to us, and in all the rocks derived from it. It is, however, much more common in alluvial grounds than among primitive and pyrogenous rocks. Nine-tenths of the gold which has been produced has been obtained from alluvial beds. Gold mines are generally situated at the extreme limits of civilization. Herodotus notes the fact and he is confirmed by Humbolt. It is first mentioned in Genesis ii: 11. It was found in the country of Havilah, where the rivers Euphrates and Tigris unite and discharge their waters into the Persian Gulf. Gold is never found in mass, in veins, or lodes; it is interspersed, in threads or flakes, throughout quartz or other rocks. It is the only metal of a yellow color; it is easily chrystallizable, and always assumes one or more of the symmetrical shapes,—such as the cube or octahedron. It affords a resplendent polish, and may be exposed, for any length of time, to the atmosphere without suffering change, and is remarkable for its beauty. Its malleability is such that a cubic inch will cover a surface of eighteen hundred square feet; and its ductility is such that a cube of four inches could be drawn into a wire which would extend around the earth.
Gold in its relative value to silver has varied greatly at different periods.
In the days of the patriarch Abraham, it was one to eight; B.C. 1000, it was one to twelve; B.C. 500, it was one to thirteen; at the commencement of the Christian era, it was one to nine; A.D. 500, it was one to eighteen; in 1100, it was one to eight; in 1400, it was one to eleven; in 1545, it was one to six; in 1551 it was one to two; in 1600, it was one to ten; in 1627, it was one to thirteen; in 1700, it was one to fifteen and one-half; it held the latter ratio, with but slight variation, until 1872, when it began to rise, and in 1876 it rose to one to twenty; it soon afterwards gradually declined, and now stands one to nineteen and one-half. The supply of silver beyond a legitimate demand for financial purposes, the decrease of the export of silver to the East, and the demonetization of silver by the principal countries of Europe, have induced a tendency in the ratio of the two metals to again advance. Gold was extremely abundant in ancient times. It was plenteously furnished by the rivers of Asia. The sands of Pactolus, the golden fleece conquered by the Argonauts, the gold of Ophir, the fable of King Midas, all tend to show the eastern origin of gold. It was abundant in Cabul and Little Thibet. It abounded in the empire of the Pharaohs, as is attested by the traces of mining operations, now exhausted, and by the multitude of objects of gold contained in their tombs. Dennis ("History of the Cities and Cemeteries of Etruria," vol. II, p. 50) states that "gold ornaments, whose beauty and richness are amazing, abound in the tombs of the Etruscans, who were undoubtedly one of the most remarkable nations of antiquity, and the great civilizers of Italy. In a single tomb in Cerveti, fragments of breastplates, earrings, and brooches, sufficient to fill more than one basket, were found crushed beneath a mass of fallen masonry. A gold chain, with a number of pendant scaraboei, was found in a tomb in Vulci, transcending anything before seen by him. Bieda, Chiusi, Canosa, Casuccini, Perugia, and Veii belong in the same category." Schlieman ("Ilios" p. 253, et. seq.) states that they had an abundance of gold, bordering, as they did, on Phrygia, and nearly touching the valley of the Pactolus, so famous for its auriferous sands. It was very pure and therefore easily worked. In a tomb a single vase was found containing eighty-seven hundred small objects of gold. Ornaments of gold are very abundant in the tombs of Mycenae. In remote antiquity the bulk of gold was brought by the Phenicians from Arabia, which had twenty-two gold mines. It was the ancient El Dorado, and proverbial for its wealth of gold in all antiquity, down to the Middle Ages. "Arabia sends us gold," said Thomas A. Becket. Sacred ornaments of gold abound in churches, temples, pagodas, and tombs, throughout the Eastern hemisphere. The Homeric poems call Mycenae a city rich in gold. Gold abounded in the Levant, and it was obtained in considerable quantity in the island of Siphnos, and also from Pangaeus. It was found in abundance in Turdeltania in Spain; it was brought down by the rivers Tagus and Duoro; and it was plenty in Dacia, Transylvania, and the Asturias. Caligula caused his guests to be helped with gold (which they carried away), instead of bread and meat. The dresses of Nero were stiff with embroidery and gold; he fished with hooks of gold, and his attendants wore necklaces, and bracelets of gold. The Egyptians obtained large quantities of gold from the upper Nile, and from Ethiopia. Among them it was estimated by weight, usually in the form of bulls or oxen. In the centre of the continent, upon which so much light has been recently thrown by Livingston, Stanley, and others, rocks are to be met with quartz veins containing gold, and thus auriferous alluvium has been formed. Western Africa was the first field which supplied gold to mediaeval Europe. Its whole seaboard from Morocco to the equator produces more or less gold. This small section of the continent poured a flood of gold into Europe, and until the mineral discoveries of California and Australia, it continued to be the principal supply to the civilized world. In eastern Akim gold is said to be as plentiful as potatoes in Ireland. The Fanti gold mines are far more valuable than Ashanti, and the Wassaw and the Nquampossoo have gold nuggets in profusion. The King of Gyaman became immensely rich by the product of his gold mines; his bed had steps of gold. The French claim that they imported gold from Elmina in 1382. The Portuguese discovered gold in 1442, upon the borders of Rio de Ouro. Mungo Park, in 1797, drew attention to the existence of gold in the provinces of Shronda, Kinkodi, Dindiko, Bambuk, and Barabarra. Caille, in 1827, reported an abundance of gold in the valley of the Niger. The gold mines of Boure were first visited by Winwood Reade in 1872. The inhabitants of Western Africa have worked their gold fields for centuries to very little purpose. Their want of pumps, of quartz-crushing machinery, and of scientific appliances, has limited their labors to scratching the top soil and nibbling at the reef-walls. A large proportion of the country is virtually virgin ground; and a rich harvest has been left for Occidental science, energy, and enterprise. It is fast becoming evident that Africa will one day equal half a dozen Californias. The annual product of gold in Africa has declined from $17,000,000 in 1471 to $3,000,000 in 1816. Since the latter date it has gradually declined to $2,000,000. The gold product since 1471 has amounted to $3,500,000,000.
Gold, after the discovery of America, was produced in large quantities, principally in the Antilles, and chiefly in Hispaniola, and the western coast of the Gulf of Mexico. America is pre-eminently the land of metals. Gold is found in greater or less abundance throughout its Pacific coast from Alaska to Patagonia. The New World furnishes nearly two-thirds of the precious metals annually produced. The export of gold from the United States since 1848 has amounted to $1,548,564,852. The gold mines of Peru were revealed to Europe by Pizarro in 1513. The gold mines of South America extend throughout its entire territory. Its richest mines are about Huylas and Turma, Most of the rivers of the Andes bring down auriferous sands. Before the arrival of the Spaniards the Indians had gathered from the river sands large quantities of gold in Peru, Chili, and along the whole western coast of South America. Brazil has yielded, from 1513 to the present time, $876,000,000 of gold. The annual product of gold, in South America, at the present time is $8,000,000. The total product, from 1513 to the present time, has amounted to $2,176,000,000. The gold mines of North America extend from Costa Rica to Alaska, between the parallels 8° and 71° of North latitude, and the parallels of 82° and 168° of West longitude, comprised between the Caribbean sea and the Arctic ocean, and the Rocky mountains and the Pacific ocean. The Mexican gold mines were discovered by Cortez in 1526. Their annual product has decreased from $3,000,000 in former times to $1,000,000 at the present time. Their total product to the present time has amounted to $652,000,000. Gold was discovered in California by William Marshall, on the ninth day of February, 1848, at Suter's mill on the American fork of the Sacramento river, and the mines extend from 34° to 40° of North latitude. Their annual product has decreased from $81,000,000 in 1853 to $14,000,000 at the present time. The annual product of the gold mines of Colorado, Dakota, Nevada, Montana, Idaho, Arizona, Oregon, and other parts of the United States, at the present time, is estimated to be $16,000,000. Their total product has amounted to $200,000,000. The annual product of the gold mines of British Columbia is estimated to be $2,000,000. Their total product has amounted to $52,000,000. In estimating the gold product of California Messrs. Hussey, Bond and Hale, of San Francisco, (Hunt's Mer. Mag., vol. XXVII, p. 43) state,—"that there should be added to the amount exhibited upon steamers' manifests fifteen to sixty per cent, for the amount carried in the valises and pockets of returning passengers, overland to Mexico, exported to Chili, and retained in California for purposes of currency." Fenton (Tasmania, p. 430) states,—"that the product of gold, $850,000, in Tasmania, in 1883, does not include the value of gold which left the colony by private hands, when it is considered that the alluvial auriferous deposits are worked by men who are constantly on the move and who sometimes take with them, to the other colonies, the product of their washings, without leaving behind them any record of the weight or value of the gold thus removed." This rule should be applied to Australia, Russia, New Zealand, and all countries which are producers of the precious metals. The annual product of the gold mines of North America is $32,000,000. Their total product from 1513 to the present time is estimated to be $2,764,000,000, of which $2,164,000,000 have been obtained since 1848. The annual product of gold in America is $40,000,000,—more than one-third of the entire annual product of the world. The total gold product of America, since the hills of Hispaniola were revealed to the eyes of Columbus, has amounted to $4,940,000,000—one-third of the product of the world since the earliest times.
Gold was discovered in Russia in 1743, near Nertschinsk, alluvial deposits having been observed in that year in the Ural mountains. The mines extend over that parallelogram of the earth's surface, comprised between the parallels of 50° and 60° of north latitude, between the Volga and Amoor rivers. They were not generally explored until 1810. In 1816 their product was but $80,000; at the close of 1823 there was a large development. In 1830 the annual product was $4,000,000. About that time the deposits of Siberia were discovered, and at the close of 1840 they yielded a greater production than those of the Ural. In 1843 the total annual product of both regions was $18,000,000. In 1853 it attained to $36,000,000, but since that date it has gradually declined to $22,000,000. The total product of the Russian goldmines has amounted to $805,000,000. The annual product of gold in Europe is $24,000,000. The total product of gold in Europe, from the earliest times to the present day, has amounted to $4,145,000,000.
Gold was discovered in Australia by Edward Hammand Hargreaves, on the twelfth day of February, 1851, in the Bathurst and Wellington districts, and the mines extend from 18° to 38° of South latitude. Their annual product has decreased from $75,000,000 in 1853 to $26,000,000 at the present time. Their total product has amounted to $1,453,000,000. The finest gold was obtained at Ballarat, and the largest nugget was dug up at Donolly, and weighed 2,448 ounces, valued at $46,000. The New Zealand gold mines were discovered by Messrs. Hartly and Reilly, on the twentieth of August, 1861, in the Otago district, on the Molineux river, on the 45° of South latitude. Their annual product has decreased from $10,000,000 in 1863 to $4,000,000 at the present time. Their total product has amounted to $176,000,000. The annual product of gold in Asia (including Australia, New Zealand and Oceanica) is $32.000,000. The total product of gold in Asia, from the earliest times to the present day, has amounted $2,065,000,000.
Gold was considered bullion in Palestine for a long time after silver was current as money. The first mention of gold as money, in the Bible, is in David's reign (B.C. 1056) when that king purchased the threshing-floor of Oman for six hundred shekels of gold by weight ($4,500.) The Lydians were the first people who coined money. The word "money" is derived from the temple of Jupiter Moneta, where the Roman mint was established. Croesus (B.C. 560) coined the golden stater, which contained one hundred and thirty-three grains of pure metal. Darius, son of Hystaspes, (B.C. 538) coined the daric, which contained one hundred and twenty-one grains of pure metal; it was preferred for its fineness, for several ages, throughout the East. It is supposed to be mentioned in the Old Testament under the name of dram. Very few specimens have come down to us. Their scarcity may be accounted for by the fact that they were melted down under the type of Alexander. Next were some coins of the tyrants of Sicily; of Gelo (B.C. 491), of Helo (B.C. 478), and of Dionysius (B.C. 404). Specimens of the former two are still preserved in modern cabinets. Gold coin was by no means plenty in Greece, until Philip of Macedon put the mines of Thrace into full operation, about B.C. 300. There are only about a dozen Greek coins in existence, three of which are in the British Museum; and of the latter, two are staters, of the weight of one hundred and twenty-nine grains each. About B.C. 207, a gold coin was struck off at Rome called "aureus," four specimens of which are in the institution before alluded to. Its weight was one hundred and twenty-four grains.
Gold coins were issued in France by Clovis, A.D. 489. About the same time, they were issued in Spain by Amalric, the Gothic king; in both countries they were called "trientes." The "mouton," worth about nine dollars, was issued in 1156. Gold coins were first issued in England in 1257, in the shape of a "penny," of the value of twenty pence; only two specimens have come down to us. "Florins" were next issued in 1334, of the value of six shillings. The "noble" followed next of the value of six shillings and eight pence; being stamped with a rose, it was called the "rose noble." "Angels" appeared in 1465, of the same value as the latter. The "royal" followed next in 1466, of the value of ten shillings. Then come for the first time the "sovereign," in 1489, of the value of twenty shillings. The "crown" followed in 1527, of the value of ten shillings. "Units" and "lions," were issued in 1603; the "laurel" 1633, and "exurgats," in 1642; all of the value of twenty shillings. The "guinea," of the value of twenty-one shillings, was issued in 1663, of Guinea gold. In 1773 all gold coins, except the guinea, were called in and forbidden to be circulated. The present sovereign was issued in 1817. The United States "half eagle" was issued in 1793.
Gold, to the amount of $2,171,000,000, was obtained from the surface and mines of the earth from the earliest times to the commencement of the Christian era; from the date of the latter event, to the discovery of America, $3,842,374,000 was obtained; from the date of the latter event to the close of 1847 an addition of $3,056,000,000 was obtained; the triple discovery of the California mines in 1848, the Australian in 1851, and the New Zealand in 1861, has added, to the close of 1884, $5,558,626,000; making a grand total of $14,628,000,000, of which $5,818,626,000 has been obtained since 1843. The average loss by abrasion of coin is estimated by Professor Bowen at one-twentieth of one per cent. per annum, and the loss by consumption in the arts, and by fire and shipwreck, at $4,000,000 per annum. A cubic inch of gold is worth, at 3£ 17s. 10 1-2d., or $18.96 per ounce., $193; a cubic foot, $333,504; and a cubic yard, $9,004,608.
Gold to the amount of $1,081,000,000, is estimated to have been in existence at the commencement of the Christian era. At the period of the discovery of America it had diminished to $135,000,000; after that event, it gradually increased, and in 1600 it attained to $154,000,000, in 1700 it reached $398,000,000, in 1800 it amounted to $1,156,000,000, in 1853 it attained to $3,332,000,000, and at the present time the amount of gold in existence is estimated to be $8,166,000,000; which, if melted into one mass, could be contained in the basement of Bunker Hill Monument, which is a cube of thirty feet. Of the amount of gold in existence $6,000,000,000 is estimated to be in coin and bullion, $1,000,000,000 in watches, and the remainder in plate, jewelry, and ornaments. Of the amount of gold in existence $2,374,000,000 is estimated to have been obtained from North America, $1,739,000,000 from South America; $1,858,000,000 from Asia (including Australia, New Zealand, and Oceanica), $945,000,000 from Europe, and $1,250,000,000 from Africa. The amount of the precious metals now in existence is estimated to be $13,670,000,000.
Gold, as compared with former periods, in regard to its annual product, has attained, within the last forty-two years, to enormous proportions. At the date of the discovery of America it was but $100,000; after the occurrence of that event it gradually increased, and in 1800 it was $17,000,000, and in 1853 it reached its acme, when it was $236,000,000; it soon afterwards gradually decreased, and now it is but $98,000,000.
Gold has changed places with silver as regards coinage. Since 1726 the gold coinage of the French mint has amounted to 11,400,000,000 francs, of which 8,200,000,000 francs have been issued since 1850. Since 1603 the gold coinage of the British mint has amounted to £409,000,000, of which £253,000,000 have been issued since 1850. Since 1792 the gold coinage of the United States mint has amounted to $1,357,000,000, of which $1,257,000,000 have been issued since 1850. Since 1664 the gold coinage of the Russian mint has amounted to 900,000,000 roubles, of which 630,000,000 have been issued since 1850. The twenty-five-franc piece of France contains 112 grains of pure metal; the sovereign of England, 113 grains; the new doubloon of Spain, and the half-eagle of the United States, 116 grains each; and the gold lion of the Netherlands, and double-ounce of Sicily, 117 grains each. It was proposed, a few years since, to adopt a uniform system of coinage throughout the world, so that the coins of one nation may circulate in any other without the expense of re-coinage, "a consummation devoutly to be wished." The gold coinage of the principal countries of the world has increased from $77,000,000 in 1848 to $300,000,000 in 1854; in 1876 it declined to $250,000,000, since which it has continued to decrease, and is now but $90,000,000. The gold coinage of the United States mint, since 1849, has amounted to $1,281,420,038. In proportion as the wealth of a country increases it requires a currency of higher value. Gold, owing to its greater supply, and more convenient portability, is steadily gaining in the channels of commercial exchange upon silver.
Gold, in view of the large amount which has been thrown into the monetary circulation of the world since 1843, and the little influence it has exercised upon the money market and prices generally, has falsified the predictions of financial writers, a generation ago, upon both sides of the Atlantic. The following statement will exhibit the wholesale cash prices in the New York market, on the first day of January, in the respective years, of six of the principal articals of commerce:
| 1860. | 1872. | 1885. | |
| Beef, per barrel | $10.75 | $10.00 | $11.75 |
| Pork, " " | 16.25 | 14.00 | 12.25 |
| Flour, " " | 5.25 | 4.12 | 2.55 |
| Rice, " 100 lbs. | 3.87 | 8.44 | 5.62 |
| Corn, " bushel | .93 | .81 | .48 |
| Cotton, " pound | .11 3-4 | .21 1-4 | .11 1-4 |
War is the great enhancer of prices. During the Civil War in the United States (1861-1865), the prices of the above articles were more than doubled.
Gold, in the midst of its sudden plethora, was a perplexing problem to the financial prophets of a third of a century ago. M. Michel Chevalier (Revue des Deux Mondes, November, 1857) predicted,—"that a decline would occur in the price of gold, equal to one-half of its former value; that a period of peril was impending, full of inquietude, instability and damage to a great variety of interests; that the value of gold would be diminished, and that consequently wages and prices would be doubled; that the duties on imports, and the interest on the debts of the principal nations of the world, must necessarilly follow the same course; that it would inevitably involve a re-coinage of all the existing gold coins of the world, from time to time, in order to conform to the price of the metal; that the value of the twenty-franc piece would be reduced to 19 1-2, 19, 18 francs, as the depreciation descended; and he, therefore, recommended a cessation of the gold coinage until the lowest point of depreciation is reached; that the new gold fields were likely to prove as productive as at first for several generations; in no direction could new outlets be seen sufficiently large to absorb the extra production in such a manner as to prevent a fall in its value. It might fall until nineteen francs would correspond only to the amount of well being which could then be obtained for five francs." Poor man! He lived to see the utter failure of all his predictions; to behold France become the largest coiner of gold in the world; an exporter of the precious metals to the amount of $43,000,000 annually during a decade; the rise of the standard of gold from 15 1-2 to 18, as compared with silver, and involving a decline from 62 3-4d. to 52d. per ounce; great fear of a gold famine come upon the Directors of the Bank of France, and also of the Bank of England; the annual product of gold to attain its acme, four years before his predictions; its gradual decline, until it had descended to one-half; a new gold-field opened in New Zealand; and silver demonetized by his own country, Germany, and the other principal countries of Europe. M. Emile de Lavelaye (Ninteenth Century Review, September, 1881), states, "that the present annual supply of gold is no more than sufficient to meet the requirements of the expanding commerce of the world. The scarcity of gold has induced so great a fall in prices that they are now lower than in 1850. It is estimated that North America has contributed £14,000,000 of the stock of gold in the world." We have already shown that the annual product of gold has increased, at one period, thirteen fold, and is now, notwithstanding its rapid decrease, five fold greater than at the commencement of the present century; that prices have not been in the least degree affected by the increased supply of gold; and that North America has contributed $2,374,000,000 of the stock of gold in the world.
Gold has faithfully performed for the last forty-two years, and, in view of its abundance and prospective increase, will continue to support its role of a fixed standard of value, and a firm basis for the bank-note circulation of the principal countries of the civilized world, which is evidently growing gradually metallic, as a comparative statement of the amount of bank-note circulation issued, and the amount of specie held by the Bank of England, the joint stock banks, and the private banks of Great Britain the Bank of France, the State banks, and the National banks of the United States, at different periods, will exhibit:
| 1840. | |||
| GREAT BRITAIN. | FRANCE. | UNITED STATES. | |
| Circulation | £34,976,524 | 220,005,695 francs. | $87,872,171 |
| Specie | 8,751,342 | 225,406,807 " | 35,207,690 |
| 1850. | |||
| Circulation | £34,948,765 | 481,552,000 francs. | $118,984,112 |
| Specie | 19,843,026 | 458,820,000 " | 45,379,345 |
| 1862. | |||
| Circulation | £39,574,862 | 725,417,563 francs. | $126,599,167 |
| Specie | 22,917,846 | 324,915,234 " | 102,507,559 |
| 1885. | |||
| Circulation | £37,215,968 | 2,912,386,475 francs. | $112,027,858 |
| Specie | 28,146,893 | 2,065,937,158 " | 139,747,080 |
Gold has robbed silver of the prestige claimed for it two centuries ago by Locke,—"that it is the instrument and measure of commerce in all the civilized and trading parts of the world, and its normal currency." Gold has maintained its present price for one hundred and sixty years, while silver has declined twenty-two per cent. within thirteen. When, owing to scarcity, gold advances in price, then we may fear, that, what the late Mr. Bagehot use to call the "apprehension point," is close at our heels. The amount of gold in existence has increased from $1,975,000,000 in 1843 to $8,166,000,000 at the present time; while silver, owing to the great attrition of coin (estimated by Bowen at one per cent. per annum), has increased from $5,040,000,000 to but $5,504,000,000, during the same period. Of the two hundred and twelve millions of dollars of the precious metals annually produced, ninety-eight millions are furnished by gold.