5. The unsteadiness of many units.[79]
6. The lack of cohesion in the operations of the 6th Siberians (on the right of the western force).
During this battle of the Sha Ho the senior commanders—Generals Bilderling and Shtakelberg—were given instructions as to what was required of them generally, but were left to make their dispositions independently.
As will be seen from the above brief sketch of events, the September fighting had no decisive results. The two sides suffered equally, and lost about 50,000 men each. Still, our assumption of the offensive, even with inadequate numbers, greatly improved our strategical position by moving our general front thirteen miles forward in front of Mukden, and afforded us a matter of four and a half months of time. As soon as we occupied the positions on the Sha Ho from Shou-lin-tzu on the right flank to Kao-tu-ling on the left, we set to work fortifying them. Besides ten battalions of the 1st Corps, the whole of the 1st Siberians and twenty-four battalions of the 6th Corps were moved into the general reserve in rear of the centre, and we were confident that we would be able to hold our ground. We still had, however, a very small number of men—indeed, in some units the shortage was alarming. The total strength of the 252 battalions comprising our army on October 25 was only 140,000 rifles, which works out at an average strength of 550 per battalion, while many battalions could not even muster 400 men. Not less disquieting was the lack of officers, which now amounted in the infantry alone to over 2,700, or an average deficiency per battalion of eleven. Meanwhile the drafts to repair wastage were still coming up in driblets. In October and November we only received some 13,000 men. It was not till December 8 that they began to reach us in any quantity; during that month and the first half of January 72,000 arrived. I reported upon this vital question in my letters to the Tsar of October 26 and November 5.
In his despatches of October 23 and 26 His Majesty was pleased to inform me that I had been appointed to the supreme command of all the forces in the Far East, that General Linievitch was appointed to the command of the 1st, and General Baron Kaulbars to the command of the 3rd Army.[80] My first act was to augment the army by adding to it the whole of the 1st Siberian and 61st Divisions, the latter of which was intended by Alexeieff for the Pri-Amur district. This at once added 20,000 rifles to the field army; the leading units also of the 8th Corps began to arrive at the beginning of November, and at the end of the month were concentrated at Mukden. But the main thing which still remained to be done was the improvement of our railway communication with Russia, which became more than ever necessary on account of the increased army to be supplied.
On November 28 the effective strength of all three armies, including the 8th Corps, amounted to 210,000 men. Our information as to the enemy put their strength at this date at about 200,000. Although we were rather superior in numbers, our superiority was too slight to insure a successful offensive under the particularly difficult conditions offered by the intense cold weather, and the fact that the enemy’s positions were strongly fortified. The low temperature rendered the lightest trench work practically impossible, and made the provision of a large amount of warm clothing an absolute necessity. Our preparations for the offensive, as regards making Mukden an intermediate base and our engineering work, began in November. In addition to the branch railway to the Fu-shun mines, which was completed that month, a branch was laid to the right flank of our dispositions,[81] and a field line to Rennenkampf’s force on the left.[82] But still, when December came we were not ready to advance, mainly owing to the delay in railway construction, largely caused by the weather. Although I was informed by the War Minister, in a communication dated November 8, that the running capacity of the Siberian and Trans-Baikal lines would from October 28 be brought up to twelve pairs of military trains, we never received as many right up to the end of the war. The result of this was that the expected drafts, as well as the three Rifle brigades, arrived about ten days later than we had calculated on receiving them, and there was great delay in the distribution of warm clothing to the men, particularly felt boots. Very great difficulty also was experienced in collecting the food-supplies necessary for the forward movement, and in organizing new transport units.
When, in the middle of December, I summoned a meeting of the three army commanders and consulted them as to the possible date of an advance, in view of the critical state of affairs at Port Arthur, they unanimously stated that it was essential to await the arrival of the whole of the 16th Corps. On receiving the news of the surrender of the fortress, I again asked their opinions as to whether—in view of Oyama’s armies being probably augmented by that of Nogi—they did not consider it desirable to commence an advance at an earlier date. But they still adhered to their former opinion, modifying it only to the extent that we should begin our advance while this corps was arriving, and not wait until its concentration was completed. As regards the actual plan of the offensive operations, the opinions of the three army commanders were the same—namely, that we should deliver the main blow with as large a force as possible at the enemy’s left, and envelop it. The only difference of opinion was as to the depth of this envelopment. The boldest and most original plan was that proposed by Grippenberg—namely, that he should undertake, with the 2nd Army, a wide turning movement—almost an envelopment—of the enemy’s left in the direction of Yen-tai station, and cut himself free from the 3rd Army. He considered it necessary to have seven corps under his command for this operation. This, however, was impracticable, as, even without leaving any troops as a general reserve, besides the 16th Corps then arriving, only four corps could be given him—namely, the 8th, 10th, 1st Siberian, and the Composite Rifle Corps. General Linievitch, who was apprehensive that the enemy might attack the 1st Army, thought it dangerous to give Grippenberg the 1st Siberians. Kaulbars, in his turn, thought it impossible, without grave risk of the 3rd Army being driven from its positions, to detach any portion of it to the 2nd Army. Finally, Grippenberg’s plan, though it promised great advantages in the event of success, seemed very risky, for it extended our already long front still more, and made it so attenuated that it would be liable to be broken by a determined attack at any point. Moreover, no general reserve would be left at my disposal with which to deal with any unforeseen emergency.
After proposing the above bold plan, Grippenberg suddenly went to the other extreme, and became pessimistic. For instance, on January 13, he informed me that the campaign was as good as lost, that we ought to retire to Harbin, hold on to that point and Vladivostok, and from thence move with two armies “in other directions.” On my asking him which were the directions in which we should move, he gave no clear explanation. The same idea was expressed also in a report received on the same day (dated January 2) from General Ruzski, the Chief of the Staff of the 2nd Army. In it was contained Grippenberg’s opinion that it was impossible for us to dream of being successful after Nogi’s arrival, and that—
“The officer commanding the Army accordingly inclines to the conclusion that, under the circumstances, the best solution of the question would be to fall back to Mukden, or further if necessary, and there to await a favourable opportunity to take the offensive.”