How far existing conditions may be disturbed by new means of transit or by new works of life in New York City, no one can now tell. At present, the broad fact is, that the whole area of Brooklyn (excepting only the more remote parts of the Twenty-sixth Ward, the former town of New Lots) is nearer in distance to the New York City Hall than that part of New York City lying above One Hundred and Tenth street.

Furthermore, the residence area lying between Fifty-ninth and One Hundred and Tenth streets in New York is not one-seventh of that lying between lines of like distance in Kings County.

To attempt a close estimate of the future population of New York and Brooklyn might be neither wise nor profitable. Some conception of the general course or character of that development is the most that is practicable. All nineteenth century progress discloses a tendency to concentration of population. In our own country the inhabitants of cities formed one-thirtieth of the population in 1790; one-eighth in 1850; and nine-fortieths or half way between one-fifth and one-fourth in 1880. In this State a full one-half of the population dwelt in cities in 1880. The proportion now is not less than three-fifths, and is rapidly approaching, if it has not already reached, five-eighths.

The population of the Union since 1820 has increased at a rate varying by decades from over 35 per cent. to 22.65 per cent. The lowest rate was that of the war decade. The rate per decade since 1870 has been more than 30 per cent. The population of the cities of New York and Brooklyn has at all times increased more rapidly than that of the nation. This was true even during the war decade, although the marked falling off of their rate of growth in that decade disclosed a decided sensitiveness to whatever influences accelerated or retarded national growth. New York and Brooklyn, indeed, have at all times shown by their rate and character of progress and growth that they are reflections of the development of the nation rather than of that of any State or locality. We may, therefore, safely say that the growth of the united population of New York and Brooklyn hereafter, as in the past, will depend chiefly upon the general progress of the whole nation. How rapid this progress will continue, how great proportions it may finally attain can only be vaguely conjectured. Lincoln's forecast of two hundred and fifty millions of souls during the life time of people who were in existence in 1861, would seem to have been over-sanguine, although it was not without parallel or precedent. The decade between 1850 and 1860, at the close of which he was speaking, had witnessed a most rapid national growth, that is, a rate of more than thirty-five per cent. for the whole Union. Percentages decline as aggregates increase. The rate of thirty per cent. which has prevailed since 1870, would not produce two hundred and fifty millions (250,000,000) of people until after 1940. It is too much to assume that such a rate of national growth will continue. Its continuance for so long a period would involve an increase of over forty millions (40,000,000) between 1920 and 1930, and over fifty-five millions (55,000,000) between 1930 and 1940. It seems more reasonable to expect a gradual decline in the rate of increase, and that the relation between this country and Europe will more closely approach an equilibrium, accompanied or followed by a diminution of the force of immigration as a factor in our national growth. Immigration in the past has fluctuated widely. The total number of immigrants landing in this country for the whole decade closing in 1880, was less than that for the first five years of the present decade. To what degree the population of the future will dwell in cities can perhaps best be foretold by present indications in our own land, or by the conditions prevailing in more thickly settled nations. Present indications here, as has been pointed out, suggest a city growth more rapid than that of the remainder of the population. Among the older nations, the population of the British Isles may be said to resemble our own most closely. The population of Great Britain and Ireland in 1881 was thirty-five millions (35,000,000). More than one-tenth of this population was contained in London alone. Such an urban population manifestly sustains itself largely if not chiefly upon the commercial and maritime importance of the nation containing it, and only to a minor degree upon the community surrounding it. This condition of existence may never be as emphatically true of the population about the port of New York as it is of the population of London, yet it has always been believed that the final commercial position of our nation must be one of commanding importance. That belief compels the inference that the great port of the nation and of the continent must continue to attract an enormous population. That the present rate of growth, which adds 30 per cent. to the population of New York, and more than 40 per cent. to that of Brooklyn, in every ten years, will endure, need not be expected. The results of a computation upon such a basis seem incredible, since they call for a population of three million five hundred thousand (3,500,000) in New York in 1920, and of two million two hundred thousand (2,200,000) in Brooklyn at the same time. But we may well believe that in the nation there will be a gradual approach to the density of population now maintained in older countries; that this port will hold its place as a general point of concentration and distribution for the nation, the continent, perhaps for the world; and that the excess of residence area in and about our own city over the corresponding area of New York must continue to tell in our favor, probably with increasing force.

Looking back no further than 1850, and comparing the two cities with each other, the following table shows their numbers and rate of growth in the successive decades:

Years.Population
of
New York.		Increase,
per cent.		Population
of
Brooklyn.		Increase
per cent.
1850515,547 96,838
186005,65156.2266,661175.3
1870942,29216.9396,09948.5
18801,206,29928.0566,66343.0

As the present Twenty-sixth Ward of Brooklyn was not a part of the city in 1880, a comparison of the population of Brooklyn, as the city is now constituted, with the population of the City of New York would be as follows:

The figures for 1888 for both cities are estimated on the basis already stated.

Year.New York.Increase
per cent.		Brooklyn.Increase
per cent.
18801,206,299 580,318
18881,585,529 782,221
379,23023.9201,90334.7
3 pr. cent.
per year.		 4.3 pr. cent.
per year.

The records of the Building Department aid in testing the estimates already submitted, and more strikingly in disclosing the character of the population now coming to us. During the twelve months ending on November 30 of this year, 4,226 permits were granted for buildings of all varieties, estimated by their projectors to cost $22,377,825. The estimated value of this proposed construction has not been exceeded during any similar period in the City's history. The buildings of a residence description were to furnish accommodation for 10,457 families. Not every building for which a permit is issued is afterwards completed, but the magnitude of the volume of the business of this department—even after making all reasonable deductions for the plans not carried out—at least justifies all that has been said thus far concerning the City's present proportions and rate of progress. The United States census of 1880 declared the City's population of 566,663 to be contained in 115,076 families; thus fixing the average membership of each family at 4.92. It is hardly credible therefore that the permits issued for residence purposes during the past year represent the City's actual growth during any given period of twelve months. If families now average as then, these permits would furnish homes for more than 51,000 souls—a number, to my mind, in excess of the City's yearly growth. We must, therefore, assume that there is some discrepancy between the methods of designation employed in 1880 by the United States officials and those of the building department, or that the average number of persons in each family is now less than in 1880, or that these permits represent more than the actual needs of the period during which they were granted. Probably the last supposition is best founded. Like New York, the City may have been overbuilt during the past two or three years, and this record, no doubt, exhibits some permits not acted upon and some construction due to the impetus of the speculative ardor of 1885, 1886, and 1887. This view is confirmed by the statement of the number and cost of the buildings actually completed during the calendar years 1886 and 1887, and the first eleven months of the present year.