| Year. | No. of Buildings. | Estimated Cost. |
| 1886. | 3,990. | $20,318,485. |
| 1887. | 3,875. | 18,008,325. |
| 1888 to Dec. 1. | 3,155. | 15,711,070. |
While these figures, together with the record of the twelve months ending upon November 30, 1888, as already given, can not, from their nature, lead to a precise mathematical conclusion, they indicate most clearly a degree of activity in construction in which a slight decline in rapidity might be a cause for congratulation rather than for regret. The substantial prosperity of the City was at one time threatened by the over-speculative temper of builders. Conservative witnesses now think that the normal relation of supply and demand has been partially restored. The interests of labor are directly concerned to avoid premature and forced development in so important an industry. Those who lend upon real estate security, and all who deposit in savings banks which make such loans, are not less concerned that our growth should represent the response to actual demand, and not inconsiderate and headlong enterprise.
Further analysis of the permits issued during the twelve months ending November 30, 1888, is of interest.
Of the 10,457 families for whose accommodation residence permits were issued, nineteen were to live in factories, stables, shops, or business offices, three thousand six hundred and seventy-two (3,672), were to live in 1,011 flats, to be erected at the estimated cost of $4,903,513. The average investment of capital to furnish a home for each of these families would seem to be $1,338, plus the cost of the land. 2,456 families were to live in 713 buildings described as flats and stores, to be erected at a cost of $4,303,784, calling for an average investment for each family of $1,752 less the cost of the store, plus the cost of land. It may be safely stated that the distinction between these two variety of residences is in general not great. If, therefore, we call the average cost of the flat the same in each case, $1,338, plus the cost of the land, we shall not be far wrong. Neither do we err much if the value of the land is estimated to be one-third that of the building. It would thus appear that 6,128 families were to be given homes representing on the average an investment of $1,784. The owner of such property would probably demand $175 per year average rental, and since rent may be reckoned as forming one-fourth of the cost of living with these families, it would follow that the 6,128 families now under consideration should possess an average income of $650 or $700. This body of inhabitants forms a full six-tenths of the growth of the City as the builders anticipated it.
The next most important element in that growth consists of (3,055) three thousand and fifty-five families who are to occupy 505 tenements, to be constructed at a cost of $2,629,026, the average investment to provide a home for each family in this case being $806, plus the cost of the land. Allow one-third as before to this latter item, and the cost of each home becomes $1,075. Assume $120 to be the average rent asked for such dwelling places, and it would appear that these 3,055 families do not command an average income in excess of $450. These families form three-tenths of the City's growth for a year as foreseen by its builders. Thus, nine-tenths of the expected increase has been classified with a reasonable approximation to accuracy. The averages thus far submitted are not likely to be seriously misleading, since they represent varieties of construction and modes of life in which a uniform type is closely followed. Among those inhabitants composing the remaining tenth, incomes cover a wider range, but a comprehensive view even of these is by no means unprofitable. For 1,168 families the same number of private dwellings were built, costing $4,660,388, the average cost of each dwelling being $4,000. In order that these averages might not be misleading, the Commissioner of Buildings has, at my request, examined every permit issued by him during the year, and has arranged them upon certain suggestive bases of classification. This last group of 1,168 families includes no permits for private dwellings whose construction cost over $10,000. The average cost of dwellings costing less than $10,000 each, occupied by one family is, therefore, $4,000. While this figure represents the average cost of dwellings of this class, it would appear that the actual cost of the greater number of these dwellings was considerably less than the average. Otherwise the average would not have been drawn to a point so far below the maximum cost of $10,000. These 1,168 families may be safely assumed to stand upon lots worth one-third of their cost. Thus, these 1,168 dwellings are to dwell in homes representing an average investment of $5,333. Upon the basis of computation before employed the income of these families should average not far from $2,000 per year. In fact, for reasons just suggested, these incomes range from a minimum of $1,000 or less to a maximum rarely exceeding $5,000 or $6,000. And a greater number of these incomes undoubtedly falls below the average point of $2,000. Perhaps the greater number would be found to be not far from $1,500.
There remain 87 families, for whom 87 private dwellings, each costing $10,000 or more, as estimated, were to be constructed. The aggregate value of these dwellings is $1,135,500. The average value is $13,000. Since the average rises so slightly above the minimum, it is clear that but few dwellings costing much more than $10,000 were to be constructed. The detailed report of the Commissioner mentions but three residences of high cost to be built respectively for $35,000, $40,000 and $50,000. These 87 families represent an average investment for both the land and the house of $17,333. An attempt to average the income of this class would be attended with less success than in any of the prior instances. The minimum cost of living for a family dwelling in one of these residences would not be far from $6,000. Doubtless but a few of them spend as small a sum as this in a year.
The surmise that in some of its features building has been overdone is apparently verified by a study of the remaining permits. The 63 factories costing $579,580, and the 158 shops costing $121,445 call for so small a part of such a population as would be contained in the flats and tenements to be constructed, that we must believe that some of these latter will not be occupied at once. This conclusion accords with observation. At the same time the general magnitude of this sort of construction indicates the operation of those causes already spoken of which embarrass the growth of New York and promote the growth of Brooklyn. Manifestly the tenants of these numerous flats and the 1,168 families who are to dwell in the more modest residences belonging in part at least to the class which will not live in lower New York and which cannot endure the journey to the region above One Hundred and Tenth street.
For the twelve months ending November 30th, 1887, permits were issued for 4,246 buildings, to cost $19,983,414. Among these are found dwellings for 9,585 families. Of these families, 2,856 are to dwell in 922 flats costing $3,978,592, the average investment for each family being $1,390 as against $1,338 in 1888. Two thousand eight hundred and sixty-eight families are to dwell in buildings described as stores and flats, numbering 714, and costing $4,838,938, the average investment for each family being $1,691 as against $1,752 in 1888. Two thousand three hundred and ninety-one families are to dwell in 377 tenements costing $1,879,001, the average investment for a family being $785 as against $806 in 1884. There remain 1,372 families who are to dwell in the same number of dwellings, each costing less than $10,000, and the aggregate cost being $5,320,607, the average cost per family being $3,877, as against $4,000 in 1888. Finally, there are 97 families provided for by the same number of residences, each costing over $10,000, and costing in the aggregate $1,197,400, or on the average $12,344 as against $13,000 in 1888.
It will be noted that a general survey of these twelve months is decidedly like that for the twelve months ending upon November 30th, 1888.
Since December 1, 1886, therefore, permits have been issued for the accommodation of 20,042 families The conclusion hinted at early in this message that present rate of growth of this city is in excess of 25,000 per year is more than supported by these figures.