excentricity and consequent slight inequality of sun-heat.
Present Condition of the Earth One of Exceptional Stability as Regards Climate.—It will be seen, by a reference to the diagram at page [171], that during the last three million years the excentricity has been less than it is now on eight occasions, for short periods only, making up a total of about 280,000 years; while it has been more than it is now for many long periods, of from 300,000 to 700,000 years each, making a total of 2,720,000 years; or nearly as 10 to 1. For nearly half the entire period, or 1,400,000 years, the excentricity has been nearly double what it is now, and this is not far from its mean condition. We have no reason for supposing that this long period of three million years, for which we have tables, was in any way exceptional as regards the degree or variation of excentricity; but, on the contrary, we may pretty safely assume that its variations during this time fairly represent its average state of increase and decrease during all known geological time. But when the glacial epoch ended, 72,000 years ago, the excentricity was about double its present amount; it then rapidly decreased till, at 60,000 years back, it was very little greater than it is now, and since then it has been uniformly small. It follows that, for about 60,000 years before our time, the mutations of climate every 10,500 years have been comparatively unimportant, and that the temperate zones have enjoyed an exceptional stability of climate. During this time those powerful causes of organic change which depend on considerable changes of climate and the consequent modifications, migrations, and extinctions of species, will not have been at work; the slight changes that did occur would probably be so slow and so little marked that the various species would be able to adapt themselves to them without much disturbance; and the result would be an epoch of exceptional stability of species.
But it is from this very period of exceptional stability that we obtain our only scale for measuring the rate of organic change. It includes not only the historical period,
but that of the Swiss Lake dwellings, the Danish shell-mounds, our peat-bogs, our sunken forests, and many of our superficial alluvial deposits—the whole in fact, of the iron, bronze, and neolithic ages. Even some portion of the palæolithic age, and of the more recent gravels and cave-earths may come into the same general period if they were formed when the glacial epoch was passing away. Now throughout all these ages we find no indication of change of species, and but little, comparatively, of migration. We thus get an erroneous idea of the permanence and stability of specific forms, due to the period immediately antecedent to our own being a period of exceptional permanence and stability as regards climatic and geographical conditions.[[100]]
Date of Last Glacial Epoch and its Bearing on the Measurement of Geological Time.—Directly we go back from this stable period we come upon changes both in the forms and in the distribution of species; and when we pass beyond the last glacial epoch into the Pliocene period we find ourselves in a comparatively new world, surrounded by a considerable number of species altogether different from any which now exist, together with many others which, though still living, now inhabit distant regions. It seems not improbable that what is termed the Pliocene period, was really the coming on of the glacial epoch, and this is the opinion of Professor Jules Marcou.[[101]] According to our views, a considerable amount of geographical change must have occurred at the change from the Miocene to the Pliocene, favouring the refrigeration of the northern hemisphere, and leading, in the way already pointed out, to the glacial epoch whenever a high degree of excentricity
prevailed. As many reasons combine to make us fix the height of the glacial epoch at the period of high excentricity which occurred 200,000 years back, and as the Pliocene period was probably not of long duration, we must suppose the next great phase of very high excentricity (850,000 years ago) to fall within the Miocene epoch. Dr. Croll believes that this must have produced a glacial period, but we have shown strong reasons for believing that, in concurrence with favourable geographical conditions, it led to uninterrupted warm climates in the temperate and northern zones. This, however, did not prevent the occurrence of local glaciation wherever other conditions led to its initiation, and the most powerful of such conditions is a great extent of high land. Now we know that the Alps acquired a considerable part of their elevation during the latter part of the Miocene period, since Miocene rocks occur at an elevation of over 6,000 feet, while Eocene beds occur at nearly 10,000 feet. But since that time there has been a vast amount of denudation, so that these rocks may have been at first raised much higher than we now find them, and thus a considerable portion of the Alps may have been more elevated than they are now. This would certainly lead to an enormous accumulation of snow, which would be increased when the excentricity reached a maximum, as already fully explained, and may then have caused glaciers to descend into the adjacent sea, carrying those enormous masses of rock which are buried in the Upper Miocene of the Superga in Northern Italy. An earlier epoch of great altitude in the Alps coinciding with the very high excentricity 2,500,000 years ago, may have caused the local glaciation of the Middle Eocene period when the enormous erratics of the Flysch conglomerate were deposited in the inland seas of Northern Switzerland, the Carpathians, and the Apennines. This is quite in harmony with the indications of an uninterrupted warm climate and rich vegetation during the very same period in the adjacent low countries, just as we find at the present day in New Zealand a delightful climate and a rich vegetation of Metrosideros,
fuchsias and tree-ferns on the very borders of huge glaciers, descending to within 700 feet of the sea-level. It is not pretended that these estimates of geological time have any more value than probable guesses; but it is certainly a curious coincidence that two remarkable periods of high excentricity should have occurred, at such periods and at such intervals apart, as very well accord with the comparative remoteness of the two deposits in which undoubted signs of ice-action have been found, and that both these are localised in the vicinity of mountains which are known to have acquired a considerable elevation at about the same period of time.
In the tenth edition of the Principles of Geology, Sir Charles Lyell, taking the amount of change in the species of mollusca as a guide, estimated the time elapsed since the commencement of the Miocene as one-third that of the whole Tertiary epoch, and the latter at one-fourth that of geological time since the Cambrian period. Professor Dana, on the other hand, estimates the Tertiary as only one-fifteenth of the Mesozoic and Palæozoic combined. On the estimate above given, founded on the dates of phases of high excentricity, we shall arrive at about four million years for the Tertiary epoch, and sixteen million years for the time elapsed since the Cambrian, according to Lyell, or sixty millions according to Dana. The estimate arrived at from the rate of denudation and deposition (twenty-eight million years) is nearly midway between these, and it is, at all events, satisfactory that the various measures result in figures of the same order of magnitude, which is all one can expect when discussing so difficult and exceedingly speculative a subject.
The only value of such estimates is to define our notions of geological time, and to show that the enormous periods, of hundreds of millions of years, which have sometimes been indicated by geologists, are neither necessary nor warranted by the facts at our command; while the present result places us more in harmony with the calculations of physicists, by leaving a very wide margin between geological time as defined by the fossiliferous rocks, and that
far more extensive period which includes all possibility of life upon the earth.