purior ratio est, ex duobus incertis, et in ambigua expectatione pendentibus, id potius credere, quod aliquas spes ferat, quam omnino quod nullas? In illo enim periculi nihil est, si quod dicitur imminere, cassum fiat et vacuum: in hoc damnum est maximum, id est salutis amissio, si cum tempus advenerit aperiatur non fuisse mendacium."[[159]]
Really Arnobius seems to have got as much out of the notion, in the third century, as if he had been fourteen centuries later, with the arithmetic of chances to help him.]
NOVUM ORGANUM MORALIUM.
The Sentinel, vol. ix. no. 27. London, Saturday, May 26, 1855.
This is the first London number of an Irish paper, Protestant in politics. It opens with "Suggestions on the subject of a Novum Organum Moralium," which is the application of algebra and the differential calculus to morals, socials, and politics. There is also a leading article on the subject, and some applications in notes to other articles. A separate publication was afterwards made, with the addition of a long Preface; the author being a clergyman who I presume must have been the editor of the Sentinel.
Suggestions as to the employment of a Novum Organum Moralium. Or, thoughts on the nature of the Differential Calculus, and on the application of its principles to metaphysics, with a view to the attainment of demonstration and certainty in moral, political and ecclesiastical affairs. By Tresham Dames Gregg,[[160]] Chaplain of St. Mary's, within the church of St. Nicholas intra muros, Dublin. London, 1859, 8vo. (pp. xl + 32).
I have a personal interest in this system, as will appear from the following extract from the newspaper:
"We were subsequently referred to De Morgan's Formal Logic and Boole's Laws of Thought[[161]] both very elaborate works, and greatly in the direction taken by ourselves. That the writers amazingly surpass us in learning we most willingly admit, but we venture to pronounce of both their learned treatises, that they deal with the subject in a mode that is scholastic to an excess.... That their works have been for a considerable space of time before the world and effected nothing, would argue that they have overlooked the vital nature of the theme.... On the whole, the writings of De Morgan and Boole go to the full justification of our principle without in any wise so trenching upon our ground as to render us open to reproach in claiming our Calculus as a great discovery.... But we renounce any paltry jealousy as to a matter so vast. If De Morgan and Boole have had a priority in the case, to them we cheerfully shall resign the glory and honor. If such be the truth, they have neither done justice to the discovery, nor to themselves [quite true]. They have, under the circumstances, acted like 'the foolish man, who roasteth not that which he taketh in hunting.... It will be sufficient for us, however, to be the Columbus of these great Americi, and popularize what they found, if they found it. We, as from the mountain top, will then become their trumpeters, and cry glory to De Morgan and glory to Boole, under Him who is the source of all glory, the only good and wise, to Whom be glory for ever! If they be our predecessors in this matter, they have, under Him, taken moral questions out of the category of probabilities, and rendered them perfectly certain. In that case, let their books be read by those who may doubt the principles this day laid before the world as a great discovery, by our newspaper. Our cry shall be ευρηκασι![[162]] Let us hope that they will join us, and henceforth keep their light [sic] from under their bushel."
For myself, and for my old friend Mr. Boole, who I am sure would join me, I disclaim both priority, simultaneity, and posteriority, and request that nothing may be trumpeted from the mountain top except our abjuration of all community of thought or operation with this Novum Organum.
To such community we can make no more claim than Americus could make to being the forerunner of Columbus who popularized his discoveries. We do not wish for any ευρηκασι and not even for εὑρηκασι. For self and Boole, I point out what would have convinced either of us that this house is divided against itself.