The preservation of the Monarchy and of order in France depended as much upon the Emperor as it had done during the early years of his reign, and he was far from being as strong as then. He had been at the head of the Government for more than eighteen years, and the temperament of the French seemed to preclude the idea that they could tolerate any rule for a lengthy period. A young generation had sprung up free from the dread of the bloodshed and disorder which accompanied the revolution of 1848, and eager for change and excitement. The Emperor's foreign policy had not of late years succeeded in gratifying the national pride, nor had his recent concessions done as much as might have been expected to recover his reputation. The ultra-Imperialists believed that if he had shown resolution and decision immediately after the General Election, no reforms would have been necessary; they thought that the reforms became inevitable simply because he vacillated and gave his majority no assurance of support. The Liberals had not much belief in his good faith, and the friends of the Empire entertained a well-grounded fear that the new powers granted to the people would be used for the purpose of overthrowing the dynasty and establishing a republic. On the one hand, there was an impression that the Emperor had no longer sufficient firmness to resist these subversive attempts; on the other, the Liberals found it difficult to believe that a sovereign who had for many years exercised so directly, in his own person, absolute power, could ever be brought voluntarily to abandon it. Thus there was apprehension on both sides, and while some feared that the Emperor would be led from concession to concession until he had no power left, others feared that, finding it impossible to reconcile himself to his new position, he would have recourse to some violent expedient, such as war or a coup d'état, in order to extricate himself from his difficulties.
It was generally taken for granted that the choice lay between the Bonaparte dynasty and a republic of an extreme character. The Emperor still retained some personal popularity, but he no longer inspired the fear and the admiration which had hitherto prevented revolutionary attempts. His best chance seemed to lie in foreign Governments treating international questions in such a way as to enhance as far as possible his reputation, and it was certainly not to the interest of England that he should be displaced, for his own commercial policy was decidedly liberal, and it was highly doubtful whether the Corps Législatif would be equally so, when it came to dealing with Tariffs and Commercial Treaties.
When Lord Lyons returned from his leave in November, he found the Emperor in good spirits, full of amiable sentiments with regard to England, and very cheerful about the political prospects in France. He did not appear to know much about the Porte and Khedive question, which had for some time been giving rise to considerable trouble, but responded at once to the Ambassador's appeal to his own amour propre in favour of the Commercial Treaty, which seemed to be in jeopardy. The Empress had gone to the East, and he was consoling himself for her absence by giving small dances at the Tuileries for some American young ladies.
Lord Lyons to Lord Clarendon.
Paris, Dec. 3, 1869.
I am more than ever impatient to settle this Khedive affair because I am afraid that I see symptoms of the French Press taking up his cause against his lawful master. La Tour d'Auvergne's tenure of office is very precarious, and if he goes before it is settled, his successor is as likely as not to take the popular side, which in France is undoubtedly that of the contumacious vassal. La Tour d'Auvergne is himself uneasy, and it is apparent that it is only the desire to act with us which keeps the Emperor from taking the Khedive's side decidedly. If the Porte plays many more of these pranks, it will bring about the independence of Egypt, or a quarrel between England and France on the subject.
It is in vain to draw any conclusions from the proceedings of the Deputies, or the innumerable commentaries made upon them. The Ministers profess to be delighted with the elections of President and Vice-Presidents, but then I cannot forget that they were enchanted for the first few days with the results of the General Election which produced the present Chamber. My own hope is that out of the chaos a working Liberal-Conservative majority will be developed; but who is to be the Minister? Emile Ollivier seems to be losing, not gaining ground in the Chamber. If the Emperor goes straight and throws himself a little more on the classes, who, having something to lose, are naturally conservative, he may do well yet. There is certainly a return of goodwill towards him. The fear is that he may hope to strengthen himself by coquetting with his pet ouvriers, who have so little gratitude for the really important services he has rendered them. If reproached, they answer, he has done something for us, but what have we not done for him? What I mean by coquetting with them, is trying to gain by their support, power, and popularity at the expense of the Chamber.
I can't pretend to say whether the new majority will hold together when the question of distributing the places arises; whether they will find it possible to get on with the Emperor, or (which most concerns us) whether they can and will maintain the Commercial Treaty. I am afraid we shall never again, either in political or commercial affairs, have as good times as we had under the personal power of the Emperor—by we of course I mean the English.
With this sentiment Lord Clarendon fully concurred: the Emperor, he said, was parting with power so reluctantly that he would create distrust, but 'I quite agree with you that we shall never have such good times again under a Parliamentary instead of a personal régime.'
A few days after this letter was written, La Tour d'Auvergne and his colleagues were already anxious to resign, although the Emperor wished to retain them. It was supposed that Drouyn de Lhuys would be one of their successors: 'Angels and Ministers of grace, defend us!' was the comment of Lord Lyons upon this rumour, which Lord Clarendon received with equal apprehension. Another political event at this juncture was an announcement by the Empress that she intended to keep aloof from politics in the future, and to devote herself to works of charity—an announcement which did not carry universal conviction at the time.