The Cabinet, which was in so shaky a condition, contained some nominal free traders, and it was feared, not without cause, that the new Government might denounce the existing Commercial Treaty, although La Tour d'Auvergne expressed confidence that such would not be the case. 'I have my misgivings,' wrote the Ambassador, sadly, 'for I am afraid the country is Protectionist, and I think the Free Trade zeal in the south will cool, as they become aware that we shall not retaliate.'
Lord Lyons to Lord Clarendon.
Paris, Dec. 21, 1869.
Nothing but absolute force will turn French Ministers and their wives from their sumptuous official palaces. La Tour d'Auvergne, whom I should indeed like to keep, is really anxious to go. I don't feel sure that any of the others are. I suppose the Emperor must change the Ministry as soon as the verification of powers is over, but he has not made up his mind yet, and his hesitation is doing him harm in all ways. There is, I believe, a Conservative reaction, or rather a revival of the fear of the red spectre in the country. The Emperor may turn this to good account, if he will govern constitutionally through a Parliamentary Ministry, but it will not sustain him in a return to personal government.
I don't think things look well for the Commercial Treaty, and the notion of some Free Traders that it should be denounced on account of its origin, and with a view to making a greater advance towards real free trade, will probably give the coup de grâce to it. The difficulty of passing new free trade measures through the Chamber would, I should think, be infinitely greater than that of maintaining the present Treaty.
The formation of the new Government was not actually completed before the end of the year, although the Emperor in true Constitutional fashion wrote a letter to M. Emile Ollivier in his own hand, asking him to form a Cabinet. There was a feeling that his Ministry would not be long lived, and moderate men shrank from joining it, thus playing into the hands of the revolutionary parties. Amongst those who thought that the new Government would be short-lived was Lord Clarendon—
'Ollivier's task,' he wrote, 'requires tact, experience, firmness, knowledge of men, and a few other qualities in which he seems singularly deficient, and I cannot think his Ministry will last. La Valette thinks that the object of the implacables is to discredit the Chamber collectively and individually, so as to make its dissolution appear a necessity; then to pass a new electoral law; then to have a General Election with which the Government would be prohibited from interfering; then to have a Chamber of Rocheforts and Raspails, which would be more than the commencement de la fin.
'This is rather a gloomy view, expressed confidentially, of course, and we must hope that the Emperor will be able to defeat intrigues of the existence and gravity of which he must be well aware.'
As an instance of the general uncertainty prevailing, it may be mentioned that M. de La Valette, until the contents of the Emperor's letter to Emile Ollivier became known, was convinced that Imperial indecision would take the form of resumption of absolute power.
The new ministry was finally completed in the early days of January, 1870, and proved to be considerably stronger than had been believed possible. Some of the new Ministers had curious antecedents with regard to the Emperor. Ollivier himself had previously been an opponent of the Empire, and his father had been sentenced to be deported to Cayenne, while Count Daru, the new Foreign Minister, had actually voted for the Emperor's impeachment. It was creditable, therefore, that personal matters did not exclude men from office. What chiefly concerned England was the line which the new Government was likely to take with regard to the Commercial Treaty which was about to expire. According to the Emperor, there was nothing to fear, and he assured the Ambassador that he had come to an understanding with Ollivier on the subject, but it was ominous that several members of the Cabinet were ardent Protectionists, amongst them being the Minister of Public Works. In conversation the Emperor spoke cheerfully about the political situation, quite in the tone of a Constitutional Monarch. The Empress, on her side, declared that she had no caractère politique in the State, and enlarged on the enormity of the attacks in the press upon a person so entirely without political position, attacks which were certainly odious, and generally directed to matters unconnected with politics. As for the Ministers, they all praised the Emperor, and declared that their relations with him were perfectly Constitutional and satisfactory; everything seemed going smoothly until the death of the journalist Victor Noir at the hands of Prince Pierre Bonaparte once more threw politics into confusion. After a certain amount of rioting, however, and much trouble caused by Rochefort, things resumed their usual condition for the time being.