To be defeated on the agreement would be most convenient for the Government (for me priceless) but somewhat ruinous or mischievous, I think, to all the rest of the world.
We must of course hold our ground.
The rooted belief of Ministers that their continuance in office is absolutely essential to the welfare of the universe as well as to that of the British Empire is, of course, a well-known phenomenon which has manifested itself in more recent times in the case of both political parties. In 1885 the difficulties of the Gladstone Government continued to grow, and it was fortunate for Lord Granville's peace of mind that he was an optimist by nature.
Lord Granville to Lord Lyons.
March 25, 1885.
The incorrigible Turk has not yet sent instructions to Musurus. We have tried the most serious threats, which Musurus believes will be successful.
But if we do not take care, we shall soon be at war with the Mahdi, with Turkey, and with the Russians.
I do not know how the latter question will finish. Being of a sanguine disposition, I hope for the best. We are determined to take a firm stand.
Do you believe that the French have many tricks in hand for the Suez Canal Commission?
Early in April there arrived the news of the fight at Penjdeh, where, to use Gladstone's own expression, the attack of the Russians upon the Afghans 'bore the appearance of an unprovoked aggression.' A financial panic took place, consols fell 3 per cent., Russian stocks 9 per cent., and for a short time the impression prevailed that war was inevitable. In the House of Commons, Mr. Gladstone made one of those eloquent statements which were so widely accepted by his followers as a satisfactory solution of any outstanding difficulty, but which failed to reassure the more intelligent; and even the optimistic Lord Granville felt some uncomfortable qualms.
'It is too dreadful,' he wrote on April 10th, 'jumping from one nightmare into another.
'Once at war with Russia we shall be obliged to toady Germany, France, and Turkey.
'But I cannot believe that it will come to war. It cannot be a good move of the Russians to have created a blood feud with the Afghans.
'Not having a genius for war, I do not know how we are effectively to carry it on against Russia, although it is not off the cards that it may break her up.'
Probably Lord Granville was not singular in his inability to see how a war on land was to be effectively carried on against Russia.
In the meanwhile the French were not without their own foreign troubles. M. Jules Ferry had spoken of the necessity of inflicting a coup foudroyant. The coup foudroyant fell in a totally unexpected fashion upon his own head, in the shape of a defeat of the French forces at Lang-Son. The news of the reverse arrived in Paris on March 25, and created so absurd a panic and so strong a feeling against Spirited Colonial Policy that Jules Ferry at once bowed to the storm and resigned on the 31st. He had been in office for the unprecedented period of two years and one month, which alone was sufficient cause for disappearance; nor could it be said that his administration had been colourless, for he had passed an important Education Bill, established the Protectorate of France in Tunis, and annexed Tonquin and Madagascar.