Lord Lyons to Lord Granville.
Paris, March 31, 1885.
Ferry was certainly at work quietly with negotiations for peace with China, and no doubt he calculated on playing it as a high trump at the Elections; and a great card it would have been for him, for the war in Tonquin is extremely unpopular. The reverse at Lang-Son has changed all this; the extreme Right have always had a special hatred of Ferry on account of the suppression of the religious communities, and Clémenceau and the extreme Left have become bitterly hostile to him personally. Not many of his own party cared to stick to him when their own popularity would have been risked by doing so. And, besides, he had been in office for two years; a very unusually long period of late, and people were tired of him.
Freycinet is now trying to form a Cabinet. It is not certain that he will succeed, and if he does succeed, it is very doubtful whether his Cabinet will last. His idea seems to be to take into it Republicans of all shades, not excluding deep Red. The Republicans have been rather startled by the progress, far from great though it has been, of the Conservatives and Monarchists (Orleanist and Imperialist) in the constituencies; and the notion seems to be that the importance to them of resisting this, may keep them together and prevent them quarrelling with each other, at all events until after the Elections. But anyway, each change of Ministry produces a further step towards the Left, and there is a foundation for the fear that there may be socialist legislation against property and proprietors, and that the Government may by degrees throw away all the means of resisting anarchy.
Freycinet's own tendencies would be towards peace. Now there is nothing but flame and fury against the Chinese, but considering the general unpopularity of the war this may to a certain extent subside. He would, I think, desire to be on good terms with all countries. He would hardly be so subservient to Bismarck as Ferry had lately become. It so happens that personally he and I are particularly good friends.
Towards the end of April the British Government asked for a credit of eleven millions, and the eloquence of Mr. Gladstone worked his faithful followers up to a belief in verbiage which is almost pathetic. 'Gladstone's magnificent speech had a great effect here,' wrote Lord Granville. 'It will hasten the dénouement one way or the other in Russia.
'I understand that the Emperor is decidedly pacific; but he believes his father lost himself from want of firmness, that he himself is determined to be firm, and that the particular firmness which appeals to him, is not that which goes against the wishes of his army.'
Lord Lyons to Lord Granville.
Paris, May 1, 1885.
A war between England and Russia is much dreaded by the French. They fear that it would leave Bismarck without any counterpoise in Europe. Any influence they may have will no doubt be exercised in favour of peace, but their influence at this moment does not count very much. I do not know that they would have any strong sympathy with Russia if hostilities broke out, but such a feeling would be produced by anything which irritated them with us on account of Egyptian or other matters. Anyhow we must be prepared to find them exacting and susceptible.
The consequences of the war as regards the money market here would be disastrous; but it is believed they would be still more disastrous at Berlin.
The dangerous point is considered here to be the notions of military honour, of a peculiar kind, which prevail in the Russian as much as, or more than, in other Continental armies.
These military notions in the armies do not at all require that the rulers of the armies should keep their words to foreigners, or abide by their international engagements; but they do require that, right or wrong, the rulers should not allow the amour-propre of the army to be wounded. The Emperor of Russia probably shares these feelings, and at any rate he would certainly be afraid to run counter to them. Those here who profess to understand Russia declare that she has no desire to take Herat or to annex any part of Afghanistan. They think that the ultimate object at which she is really aiming is to extend her possessions to the Persian Gulf, and that she would be tractable enough about the Afghan frontier, if that question were separated from military honour, or rather vanity.
I met Freycinet and Herbette at dinner yesterday. They seemed to be much relieved at having got rid of the Bosphore Egyptien difficulty, and to be really much obliged to you for the help you had given to them.