The Duc de Broglie told me to-day that he had been rather surprised when he heard of the Emperor and Empress having been at Buckingham Palace on so public an occasion as that of last Tuesday, that I had not mentioned it to him on Monday afternoon, when we had had a long conversation. It would have enabled him to write to M. de Rémusat,[3] and thus have prevented any of the effect which a sudden announcement in the papers might create in France.
I told him that I had not been consulted and did not know the fact of the invitation when I saw him, and that if I had, I should probably have mentioned it to him, although not a subject about which I should have written.
I should have explained to him that it was an act of courtesy of the Queen to those with whom she had been on friendly relations, and that it was analogous to many acts of courtesy shown by the Queen to the Orleanist Princes.
He laid stress on the publicity of the occasion, and on the few opportunities which he, as Ambassador, had of seeing the Queen, of which he made no complaint; but it made any attentions to the Emperor on public occasions more marked. He was afraid that the announcement would produce considerable effect, not upon statesmen, but upon the press in France.
I repeated that the admission of the Emperor and Empress had no political significance, but had been in pursuance with the long-established habit of the Queen to show personal courtesy to Foreign Princes with whom she had been formerly on friendly relations.
The fall of the Finance Minister, Pouyer Quertier, in the spring had given rise to hopes that the French commercial policy would become more liberal, but the letters quoted below show how powerless were the arguments of the British Government and how completely wasted upon the French Ministers were the lamentations of the British free traders, and their prognostications of ruin to those who were not sufficiently enlightened to adopt their policy.
Lord Lyons to Lord Granville.
Paris, March 5, 1872.
I suppose Pouyer Quertier is really out, but we see so many changes from hour to hour in resolutions here, that I shall not report it officially until his successor is gazetted. We cannot have a more Protectionist successor; but, after all, no one is so bigoted a Protectionist as Thiers himself.
Nevertheless the change of Minister will give a chance or an excuse for a change of policy to some extent. I think that with a view to this some stronger expression of displeasure, or rather perhaps of regret than we have hitherto ventured upon, might have a good effect. The new Minister and perhaps even Thiers himself might be struck by a report from Broglie that you had put strongly before him the impossibility, whatever efforts the Government might make, of preventing public opinion in England becoming hostile to France if the present commercial policy is persisted in. It is in fact plain that there is no probability of France obtaining the concessions from the Treaty Powers, on which Thiers professed to reckon. The result already is that, whatever may have been the intention, the Mercantile Marine Law is in practice a blow which falls on England, and not on other European Powers. Unless the French Government means to give us a real most favoured nation clause, the result of denouncing our treaty will be to place us, when it expires, at a special disadvantage as compared with other nations. And what it now asks us to effect by negotiation, is to hasten the moment at which it can accomplish this. It is quite idle to talk of special friendship for us, when its measures practically treat us much worse than they do the Germans. M. de Rémusat and some other people are fond of saying that it is quite impossible that France could bear to see two nations so friendly as Belgium and England placed exceptionally in a position inferior to Germany. But France seems to bear this with great equanimity so far as our merchant navy is concerned.
The demand we have made to be exempted from the surtaxes de pavillon under our most favoured nation clause would give the French Government a means of remedying the injustice if it wished to do so. At any rate some strong expressions of discontent on our part might increase the disinclination of the Assembly and some members of the Government to insist on imposing the duties on the raw materials. It would be very convenient if there were some retaliatory measures to which we could resort, without injuring ourselves or departing from our own Free Trade principles. The French Government grossly abuses, in order to influence the Assembly, our assurances of unimpaired good will, and reluctance to retaliate; and so, in my opinion, is preparing the way for the real diminution of good will which its success in carrying its protectionist measures, to our special injury, must produce in the end.
The present Government of France does not gain strength; far from it. The Imperialists are gaining strength, as people become more and more afraid of the Reds, and feel less and less confidence in the power either of Thiers, or the Comte de Chambord, or the Comte de Paris, to keep them down. The end will probably be brought about by some accident when it is least expected. It would not be wise to leave out of the calculation of possibilities, the chance of Thiers's Government dragging on for some time yet, and it would be very difficult to predict what will succeed it. At present the Legitimists and Orleanists seem to have lost, and to be daily losing prestige, and naturally enough, to be bringing down with them the Assembly in which they are or were a majority.
Perhaps I ought to say that the despatch which I send you to-day about the sojourn of our Royal Family in the South of France applies exclusively to them. Everybody knows or ought to know that affairs are uncertain in France, but I should not think it necessary or proper to warn private people against coming to France or staying there. The conspicuous position of members of the Royal Family increase the risk of their being placed in awkward circumstances, and circumstances which would be of little consequence in the case of private people, would be very serious and embarrassing if they affected members of the Royal Family of England.
The last passage referred to a stay at Nice contemplated by the Prince of Wales. In the event of any change of Government, it was always feared that disorders would take place in the southern towns of France.
Lord Lyons to Lord Granville.
Paris, March 14, 1872.