On November 5 the new Anglo-French Commercial Treaty was signed, indignant British Free Traders striving to console themselves with the thought that France would soon discover the error of her ways and cease to lag behind the rest of the civilized world in her economic heresy.
Lord Lyons to Lord Granville.
Paris, Nov. 12, 1872.
I saw Thiers on Friday after I wrote to you on that day; and I dined with him on Saturday. He looked remarkably well, and was in high spirits and in great good humour, as he ought to be, with us. He spoke, as indeed he always does, as if he felt quite sure that he should have his own way with the Assembly in all things. As regards the organic measures, he talked as if the fight would be entirely with the Right; but both sections of the Left have declared against organic changes to be made by this Assembly. I suppose, however, Thiers is pretty sure to get his own powers prolonged for four years certain, and this is what he cares about.
I do not, however, find in my Austrian, German, and Russian colleagues so unqualified an acquiescence in Thiers remaining in power as they professed before I went away. It is said that the three Emperors at Berlin were alarmed at the prospect of the definitive establishment of any Republic, and still more so at the apparent tendency of M. Thiers's policy to leave the country to drift into a Red Republic, whenever he quitted the scene. However this may be, there is certainly a change in the language of their Representatives here, not very marked, but nevertheless quite perceptible. Orloff in particular talks as if an immediate Imperialist restoration were not only desirable but probable. If he really thinks it probable, he is almost alone in the opinion.
The Prince de Joinville, who came to see me yesterday, said that he had been a great deal about in the country, and that he found everywhere an absolute indifference to persons and dynasties, and a simple cry for any Government which would efficiently protect property. He thought that Thiers would be supported for this reason, but that whatever institutions might be nominally established, they would last only as long as Thiers himself did, and that afterwards everything would be in question, and the country probably divide itself into two great parties, Conservatives and Reds, between whom there would be a fierce struggle notwithstanding the great numerical superiority of the former.
In the absence of exciting internal topics, the year closed with a slight sensation provided by Gramont, who, it might have been supposed, would have preferred not to court further notoriety. Count Beust had recently asserted that he had warned France against expecting help from Austria in the event of a war with Prussia. Gramont replied by publishing a letter in which the following statement occurred. 'L'Autriche considère la cause de la France comme la sienne, et contribuera au succès de ses armes dans les limites du possible.' This quotation was supposed to be taken from a letter from Beust to Metternich, dated July 20, 1870 (the day after the declaration of war), and left by Metternich with Gramont, who took a copy and returned the original. Metternich was believed to have shown the letter also to the Emperor Napoleon and to Ollivier. The letter was represented as going on to say that the neutrality proclaimed by Austria was merely a blind to conceal her armaments, and that she was only waiting till the advance of winter rendered it impossible for Russia to concentrate her forces.
It was generally believed that there was plenty of evidence that an offensive and defensive alliance was in course of negotiation between France and Austria in 1869, though no treaty was signed, and the record appears to have consisted in letters exchanged between the two Emperors, but as Gramont had nothing more than a copy of a letter from Beust to Metternich his evidence was legally defective, whatever its moral value, and it was questionable whether as an ex-Minister he had any right to disclose such secrets.