The article in the Times has produced an anti-English explosion on the subject of Egypt, and was certainly well calculated to do so.
For my part, I think the best thing to be done is to take an opportunity of distinctly manifesting at Cairo the continuance of the Anglo-French understanding.
If we let either the Egyptians or Foreign Powers suppose they can upset that, we shall not be able to maintain the English and French Controllers, and if they disappear, the financial prosperity will disappear with them, and we shall have the bondholders, French and English, on our backs again.
If we let in other Foreign Powers, and at the same time try to establish English predominance, we shall have those Powers coalescing with France against us.
A split with us would very probably lead to France throwing herself into the arms of Bismarck, and he would encourage all her ambitious aims out of Europe, and, in particular, those the prosecution of which would widen the breach between her and England: or, in other words, be especially annoying and inconvenient to us.
I hope things are so far calming down in Egypt, that we may not be called upon to take any special measures this time; and the best hope of avoiding them in future seems to be in making it understood that England and France united will resist attempts to overthrow the existing system.
I am all against letting the Turks thrust the smallest finger into the pie. At this moment the French would never consent, and would consider our bringing in the Turks a specially unfriendly act, with a view to their Tunisian affairs. The less they merit any consideration from us, the more sore they will be at not receiving it. Besides which, where the Turkish hoof has trod, no grass grows, and woe to the finances of any country with which the Turk can meddle.
Of course, in what I have said about Egypt I have confined myself to the present and the immediate future.
The chances of being able to avoid active intervention were in reality non-existent; for temporizing measures taken in conjunction with France could not put off for ever the day when, moral pressure having been found insufficient, armed force would necessarily have to be employed. When that day arrived, the probability was that France would want to send troops in conjunction with ours, and our consent to that course might involve us in war with France in a very short time. If we had the courage to tell the French that our interests were paramount in Egypt, and that therefore all other European Powers must be kept out, then we must be prepared to back our words with force, and everything therefore pointed to the naval superiority of England in the Mediterranean as being our paramount necessity. With real naval superiority in the Mediterranean we were practically able to make the French do our bidding, if we chose. We had the power to shut up their navy in French ports, to stop their communications with Africa, to render powerless two millions of French soldiers, and to demolish Bismarck's schemes of elbowing us out of the Mediterranean. Such was the happy position which we enjoyed in 1881, and it was a great contrast to that which we occupy at the present day; but it did not tend towards promoting goodwill between the two nations, and Lord Lyons constantly urged that some joint understanding should be arrived at, in the event of another military outbreak in Egypt. The situation had been complicated by the despatch of a Turkish mission, and the general impression in France was that Arabi and the colonels would shortly be engaged in a conspiracy to dethrone the Khedive and to restore something like the old régime in the country. A positive declaration from the English and French Governments that they would not tolerate the overthrow of the Khedive and the established system might have effected much if it was felt that the two Governments would interfere by force, if necessary, rather than permit it; but this would not be felt or believed unless the two Governments had really come to an understanding and had agreed upon details; and when it came to discussing details the question at once presented difficulties. These difficulties were not lessened by a French Ministerial crisis in the autumn, as a crisis usually produced a fit of petty Chauvinism, such an encouragement to Consuls in the East to porter haut le drapeau de la France, the bullying of local authorities, and a demand for the extortion of monopolies and concessions for French speculators.
Lord Lyons to Lord Granville.
Paris, Nov. 4, 1881.
The Treaty of Commerce and Egypt will probably be the two first questions we shall have to discuss with the new Government.
The Commercial negotiations seem to me to have been brought exactly to the right point. Having obtained the three months prolongation, we have resumed the negotiation on the day fixed, and have continued it bona fide; and it now stands over in a manner which will enable us to see in due time whether or no we can make a treaty with the new Government.
As regards Egypt, the opinion gains ground here that at the bottom of the agitation there is (or soon will be) a plot to dethrone Tewfik and put Halim in his place as a 'National': i.e. anti-European, anti-French, and anti-English Control, Khedive. I understand that de Blignières represented strongly to Gambetta that the only way to produce quiet in Egypt and counteract intrigues in favour of Halim at Yildiz Kiosk is for England and France to declare positively at Cairo and Constantinople that they will not stand it, but will resolutely support Tewfik and the existing state of things. I do not know how far Gambetta assented to this, but I am told he did not dissent from it.
The result of much political manœuvring was that in November, 1881, Gambetta was forced to take office and to exchange the irresponsible power which he had hitherto wielded in the background for Ministerial responsibility. As frequently occurs in similar cases, when the great mystery man was dragged out into the light of open day, his appearance was somewhat disappointing. His Administration, with one exception only, was composed entirely of men belonging to his own immediate following, and contained no one of any weight beside himself. Gambetta took the Foreign Office as well as the Presidency of the Council, and on the principle that il vaut toujours mieux avoir affaire à Dieu qu'à ses anges, this was an advantage, although it was believed that he entertained so great an admiration for Bismarck, that, following the latter's example, he would probably hand over the foreign diplomatist to an under secretary. The first impressions produced by the new Ministry were not favourable.
Lord Lyons to Lord Granville.
Paris, Nov. 18, 1881.