I don't think the present Ministry is so far at all a success. Among other inconveniences arising from the appointment of men of so little personal importance is that there is no one in Gambetta's party who does not think that he ought to have been a Minister; or, in other words, who acquiesces in the superiority of any of those chosen. The fact that Léon Say and Freycinet were offered portfolios, but would not accept them on Gambetta's terms, tells against the selection ultimately made. Gambetta's personal genius must make up for all deficiencies. He appears to have a talent in particular for parliamentary tactics, especially for making the right move on the spur of the moment. I doubt his having deep-matured plans. So far as I can see, he lives au jour le jour like ordinary men.
I had a long visit yesterday from Spüller, but we did not get much beyond generalities. Gambetta and I have exchanged visits, but have not met.
I do not hazard conjectures on commercial matters, as Dilke will ascertain to-morrow exactly how the land lies. ... As a diplomatist, I cannot but feel that there is convenience in being a bachelor just now.
The last sentence does not refer to the fact that he had just been created a Viscount, but to the somewhat peculiar domestic circumstances attaching to certain members of the new Government.
It had been assumed that Gambetta's accession to office would be marked by a more vigorous foreign policy, especially in the direction of acquiring fresh territories in distant regions; but this was not justified by his own language or bearing, and at his first interview with the Ambassador he abstained from pompous common-places about preferring England to all the rest of the world, and desiring peace at any price, which was looked upon as a good sign. At the same time, there was, in his speeches about Tunis and the Mediterranean, a slight flavour of Chauvinism which would not have excited remark before 1870, but which would not have appeared in 1880, and would certainly not have been applauded in 1881, unless it had become generally known that Bismarck had sanctioned and encouraged French enterprises away from the continent of Europe.
Lord Lyons to Lord Granville.
Paris, Dec. 6, 1881.
Gambetta gave the Diplomatic Body an excellent dinner last Saturday, and played his part as host very successfully.
What may be at the bottom of his heart, nothing has yet shown.
The change which has come over the relations between France and Germany opens to him the door for a comparatively safe yet ambitious Foreign Policy. Will he resist the temptation?
During the years which immediately followed the war, the feeling of France towards Germany was composed of furious hatred and of mortal dread. The line taken, consciously or unconsciously, by Germany tended to add bitterness to this feeling. She interfered dictatorially with France even in internal matters. Her object seemed to be not only to impede the restoration of French strength and wealth, but to prevent the French recovering even prestige anywhere. She was, or affected to be, convinced that a war of revenge on the part of France was imminent. She was believed by the French to be angry at their showing so much vitality and to be preparing to give them the coup de grâce.
At this moment, however, neither France nor Germany appears to apprehend an attack or to be prepared to make one. Each appears to consider the other too strong to be attacked with impunity. Certainly Gambetta would not find the nation in heart to follow him in defying Germany. If therefore his policy or his passions incline him to do something striking to flatter the national vanity, how is he to find the means? The Tunis affair has given Bismarck an opportunity of showing him. It has enabled the Chancellor to convince the French that they will have the countenance of Germany in any enterprise in which they may engage out of Europe.
How far this may be part of a great plan of Bismarck's to secure German supremacy in Europe by pushing Austria into the Levant, Russia into Asia, and France into Africa and the Mediterranean, and by shutting up England in her own islands, we need not inquire. In any case it must suit Prince Bismarck to see France making acquisitions of territory or influence, which weaken her military force in Europe, throw burthens on her finances, and make ill blood between her and other Powers.
Unhappily if Gambetta is so short-sighted as to give in to temptation of this kind, difficult questions are, more than with any other Power, likely to arise with England, who is in contact with France all over the world and especially in the Mediterranean.
I hope better things, and I am not at all willing to despair of a thorough good understanding between France and England which would avert danger from both, and enable both to do good to all the world. Still one cannot but be anxious at this moment. Egypt may be the ticklish point.
The Parliamentary skill of Gambetta was seen to advantage during the short winter session, and compared favourably with the want of tact and vigour which had been displayed by his predecessors. He even obtained a success in the Senate, where he had not expected to find any sympathy at all, and some of the more sensible Conservatives became disposed to support him, more from fear of what might result if he fell than from personal attachment. Some of his appointments, however, aroused alarm, and he perturbed Lord Lyons by bestowing upon a journalist a most important post in the Foreign Office.