I thank you for your greeting, and am happy and proud to be present at this meeting which represents, perhaps, in these six months of a neutrality of commercialism and smuggling, branded with Socialism, a new fact of the utmost importance and significance.
While listening to the reports which were made here, my mind carried me back to the first Congresses of the International, when the representatives of the various sections of the different countries prepared written reports which gave full details as to the situations of the respective peoples. This was a splendid means of coming to a closer understanding. I pass now to speak of the international state of affairs.
The diplomatic and political situation cannot be spoken of without the military. The military situation is stationary, although, to-day, it is clearly in favour of the Germans, who occupy the whole of Belgium, with the exception of 880 square kilometres, who hold ten rich and populous departments of France, and a great part of Russian Poland. Besides, the recent attack upon Dunkirk and the activity of the submarines and dirigibles show that the Germans are still full of fight, and wish to carry the war on literally to the utmost limits of their powers of attack and defence. Thus the intervention of Italy is not late. I think the right moment has come now, when the military situation hangs in the balance. There is neither advance nor retreat on either side, for which reason it would be a good thing to decide the game by the introduction of a new factor, the intervention of Italy and Roumania.
The principal international events of this week have been the Berchtold resignations, the consideration of intervention by Roumania, and the treaty of the Triple Entente for the regulation of Russia’s financial difficulties.
Russia. It really seems to me that there was a moment of slackness in the pursuit of the war on the part of Austria and Russia. It is enough to call to mind a short paragraph in an official Russian paper, the Ruskoie Slovo, in order to realise that there was a time when Russia wavered.
“It is true,” says the paper, “that on the 4th September, Russia, France, England, Belgium and Serbia undertook not to make peace individually; but this pledge brings with it the necessity of supporting the expenses of war in common, especially now that Turkey has come to the help of the Central Powers. Our treasury is empty. Where can we obtain that money which is more important than men? If England refuses, we shall be obliged to end the war in any way convenient to Russia.” Really threatening words these, of which England, however, understood the meaning, and immediately took steps to prevent their realisation by launching the loan of fifteen milliards in favour of Russia to be subscribed to in the capitals of the Triple Entente. And, in fact, immediately after the announcement of the loan the tone of the official papers changed, and there was no more talk of making a separate peace.
Austria. There were other symptoms of restlessness in Austria. Clearly, up to the present, Austria has been sacrificed the most. She has lost Galicia and been defeated by the Russians and Serbs.
It may be then that the resignation of Berchtold is an indication that Austrian politics are taking a new direction. In what sense? I do not think in the pacifist sense. Austria is tied to Germany, and Germany leans upon Austria and Hungary. Burian’s journey to the German General Staff was made, I think, with the object of obtaining military aid for Hungary. Austria and Hungary are preparing themselves against Roumania, because this nation will probably intervene before Italy.
Roumania. Roumania has four million men concentrated in Transylvania under the rule of Austria-Hungary; she is a young nation with a perfect army of 500,000 men, and she will be obliged to end her hesitation, probably owing to the fact that the Russians are at her frontier. Nothing would embarrass the Roumanians as much as this, since they remember that in 1878 the Russians occupied Bessarabia. When the Russians, therefore, are in Transylvania, the intervention of Roumania will be decided at once.
Valona. One fact that has a certain importance where Italy is concerned is the occupation of Valona, which has come about in curious circumstances with the occupation of Sasseno, and the landing of the marines before the Bersaglieri. I do not think that there are really rebels in Albania; and I think that Italy will stop at Valona. I do not think either that Valona will run any serious risk, because the Albanians have rifles but no artillery. Albania does not exist in the true sense of the word, as the Albanians are divided both by race and tribe, and I do not think that an organised movement is to be feared.