“For a long time past it has been my conviction that the era of the super-Dreadnoughts has passed, and some time ago I asked Admiral von Müller if it was not possible to consider the question of a naval understanding simply on the basis of an agreement as to the sum of money which either Government should be entitled to spend annually on naval construction, leaving it to the discretion of each side how to make use of the money agreed upon for the building of the various types of ships.
“Great Britain is putting up a fight for her existence just as much as we do, if not to an even greater extent. Her continuance as a world power depends on the superiority—the numerical superiority at least—of her navy.
“I am convinced—always supposing that we shall succeed in conquering France and Belgium—that the British terms concerning her naval supremacy will be very moderate, and I cannot help thinking that a fair understanding regarding naval construction is just as important to Germany as it is to Great Britain.
“The present state of things is the outcome of a circulus vitiosus, and is bound to produce a soreness which will never permit of a sound understanding....
“ ... And what about the further course of the war? I sincerely hope that your Excellency will not risk the navy. The expression ‘The Fleet in being’ which has never left my memory, and which has lately been heard of again, implies exactly all I mean.
“The navy, in my opinion, has never been, and never ought to be, anything but the indispensable reserve of a healthy international policy. Just as a conscientious director-general would never dream of reducing the reserve funds of his company, unless compelled to do so by sheer necessity, we ought not to drag the navy into the war, if it could possibly be avoided.
“What would it profit you to risk a naval battle on the high seas? Not only our own, but British experts as well, believe that our ships, our officers, and our crews are superior to the British, and King Edward emphasized at every opportunity that the crews on British warships are not a match to those on German vessels. But what are you going to do? Are you going to make them fight against a numerically superior enemy? Such a course would be open to great objections, and even, if the battle turned out successfully, the victors would not escape serious damage.
“I do not know how your Excellency, and their Excellencies v. Müller and Pohl look upon these matters, but since you yourself have asked me to state my views, I hope you will not take it amiss if my zeal causes me to enlarge upon a subject which is not quite within my province. Besides, I have another reason for doing so.
“It is our duty to prepare ourselves in good time for the peace that is to come. Does your Excellency believe it would augur well for the future peace if Germany succeeded in inflicting a naval victory on the British? I do not think so myself, but I rather fancy that the opposite effect would take place.... If the British should suffer a big naval defeat, they would be forced to fight to the bitter end. That is inherent in the nature of things; even those who can only argue in terms of a Continental policy must understand it.
“Even a partial loss of her naval prestige would spell ruin to Great Britain. It would imply the defection of the great dominions which now form part of her world empire. The raison d’être for Great Britain’s present position ceases to exist as soon as she has lost her naval supremacy....