“ ... And, please, do not lose sight of one further consideration. We must find our compensation by annexing valuable territories beyond the seas; but for the peaceful enjoyment of such overseas gains we shall be dependent on the good will of Great Britain.... At present, men of German blood occupy leading positions in the economic life of almost every British colony, and the open door has been the means by which we have acquired a great deal of that national wealth of ours which caused the smooth working of our financial mobilization when the war broke out.
“ ... For all these reasons I consider it a great mistake that the press should be allowed to excite German public opinion against Great Britain to the extent it is done. I was in Berlin during the week, and I was alarmed when I became acquainted with the wild schemes which are entertained not only by the people of Berlin, but also by distinguished men from the Rhineland and Westphalia.”
Apart from the peace problem there was another matter which gave Ballin grave cause for anxiety. This was the circumstance that the Kaiser, because of his long absences from Berlin, lost the necessary touch with the people, and could not, therefore, be kept properly informed of popular feeling. He expressed his fears on this account in a letter to a friend of his amongst the Kaiser’s entourage in which he wrote:
“I hope you will soon be able to induce His Majesty to remove his winter quarters to Germany. My common sense tells me that, if a war is waged on French and Russian soil, the headquarters ought to be situated in Germany. From the point of view of security also I consider this very desirable, and I feel a great deal of anxiety concerning His Majesty.... Whether it is wise to exercise the censorship of the press to the extent it is done, is a question on which more opinions than one are possible.... I have just had a call from a Mr. X., a former officer, and an exceedingly reliable and capable man. He complained bitterly of the rigid censorship, and he thought it would be a mistake from which we should have to suffer in days to come. It would certainly be a blessing if such a man who is highly esteemed by the Foreign Office could be given a chance of explaining his views at headquarters.”
Among the problems of foreign policy with which Germany saw herself faced in the early part of the war, those referring to Italy and Roumania were of special interest to Ballin. The question was how to prevent these two countries from joining the ranks of Germany’s enemies. Ballin did all he could to bring about the Italian mission of Prince Bülow. He not only urged the Chancellor to select Bülow for this task, but he also tried hard to induce the Prince to undertake the thankless errand involved. In addition to the political importance of the mission, he laid great stress on its bearing on the food problem.
“The question of provisioning the German people,” he wrote in a letter to the Army Headquarters, “is closely connected with the solution of the Italian and Roumanian difficulties. No pressure is, in my opinion, too strong in order to make it perfectly clear to Austria that some sort of an agreement with Italy is a sine qua non for the successful termination of this war. If it were argued that Italy would come forward with fresh demands as soon as her original claims had been satisfied, I think the German Government could combat this objection by insisting upon a written promise on the part of Italy to the effect that she would not extend her demands.
“ ... Political and military considerations make it plain beyond any question of doubt that Italy, who will be armed to the teeth in March, will not be able to lay down her arms again unless Austria arrives at an understanding with her. Thus our greatest danger is the uncertainty as to what these neutrals will do, and I hope that the ministerial changes in Austria will smooth the way for a reasonable attitude towards this regrettable but unavoidable necessity. Our aim should be to prevent the scattering of our forces, for the burden imposed upon ourselves because of the inadequacy of our allies is almost superhuman, and contains the danger of exhaustion.”
The German mission to Italy suffered through the vacillations of Austrian politics, and was therefore doomed to failure. Austrian feeling concerning a compromise with Italy was always dependent on the news from the Italian front; if this was favourable, people did not want to hear of it, and in the opposite case they would only discuss such an understanding most unwillingly. The proposed compromise was looked upon as a heavy sacrifice, and people were by no means favourably disposed towards German mediation. Prince Bülow was accused of having “presented Italy with the Trentino.” Disquieting news which Ballin received from Vienna induced him to report to the Chancellor on the state of Austrian feeling, and to offer his services if he thought that his old-established relations with Vienna could be of any use. His offer was also prompted by his conviction that the German diplomatic representation in Vienna was not adapted to Austrian mentality.
Thereupon Ballin, early in March, 1915, entered upon a semi-official mission to Vienna. He first acquainted himself with the actual state of the Austrian mind by calling on his old friend, his Excellency v. Schulz, the Vice-President of the Austrian Chief Court of Audits, who was regarded as one of the best informed personages in the capital, and who was one of the regular partners of the old Emperor Francis Joseph for his daily game of tarock. This gentleman told Ballin that the people of Austria felt a good deal of resentment towards Germany, who had stepped in far too early as the “advocate of Italy,” at a time when Austria was still hoping to settle Serbia all by herself. This hope, indeed, had proved an illusion; but Germany’s strategy had also turned out a failure, because she had misjudged the attitude of Great Britain, and had not finished with France as rapidly as she had expected to do. Now Austria, confronted by stern necessity, would have to make concessions to Italy which every true Austrian would view with bitter grief; and, to bring about the active assistance of Roumania, Count Tisza would consider a sacrifice in the Bukovina debatable, but never one in Transylvania. Ballin told his friend that, as far as Roumania was concerned, he would have to leave it to Austria to settle that question by herself; and that his mission with regard to Italy was so difficult that he preferred not to make it more so by trying to solve the Roumanian problem as well.
Ballin’s subsequent interviews with the Prime Minister, Count Stürgkh, and with the Minister v. Koerber, as well as those with other influential personages, confirmed these impressions, and he left Vienna buoyed up by the hope that the conference between German, Austrian, and Italian delegates which it was proposed to hold at Vienna would lead to a successful result. Such, however, was not the case, and it is quite probable that the possibility of arriving at an understanding with Italy had passed by that time, or, assuming the most favourable circumstances, that only immediate and far-reaching Austrian concessions could have saved the situation; but these were not forthcoming.